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[WP]04W机构发报专贴

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更多 发布于:2018-05-11 06:34
WTPN21 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 152.3E TO 18.8N 148.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7N 152.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 153.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY
454 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS VERTICALLY
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND GENERALLY RAGGED, BUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME NOTABLY MORE DEFINED AND MOVED
CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. A 102012Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING AND FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. A 101141Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED WEAK CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED HIGHER (25-30 KNOT) WINDS
WITHIN A WAVELIKE CUSP IN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH A SHORT WINDOW OF RELAXED SHEAR AND STRONG OUTFLOW
PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. IN 24 TO 36
HOURS, INVEST 97W WILL TRACK INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT DUE TO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING
CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112230Z.
//
NNNN

图片:wp972018.20180510222640.gif

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发布于:2018-05-12 06:59
JTWC/97W/TCFA/05-11 2230Z

图片:wp9718.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 112230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102230Z MAY 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
102230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N 149.9E TO 20.5N 145.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 149.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.7N 152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 149.7E, APPROXIMATELY
405 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CONFINED TO
THE NORTHEASTERN ARC. AN 111809Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWS A SINGLE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
HOWEVER THE CONVECTION'S SUSTAINABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DIURNAL MINIMUM. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO CURRENTLY HIGH
(25-30KTS) AND INCREASES TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SYSTEM'S
EXPECTED TRACK.  SSTS REMAIN WARM (27-28C) IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
REGION AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL THE
MID-TAUS. FOR INTENSITY, GFS, UKMO, ECMWF AND COAMPS-TC ARE
PREDICTING SLIGHT INTENSIFICAITON INTO A SHORT-LIVED TD, WHILE
NAVGEM AND JGSM SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122230Z.//
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发布于:2018-05-12 10:20
JTWC/04W/#01/05-12 00Z

图片:wp042018.20180512021458.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112221ZMAY2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z --- NEAR 18.6N 148.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 148.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 19.3N 147.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 20.0N 145.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 20.7N 144.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 21.7N 143.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 148.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 112230).//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-05-12 10:30
JTWC/04W/#01/05-12 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR AN OCCLUDED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH OVERSHOOTING CONVECTIVE TOPS
SURROUNDING THE ASSESSED LLCC POSITION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE
OVERALL LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF AN 112018Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS,
WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL BANDING TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
RESPECTIVELY AND ANALYSIS OF A PARTIAL OSCAT PASS FROM 112130Z. THE
AFOREMENTIONED OSCAT PASS REVEALED 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM, MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN TD 04W AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH,
AND ONLY 15-20 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH ALL
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES WERE MISSES, BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC, AND THE OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME
HIGHER SPEED WINDS HAVE STARTED TO WRAP INTO AND AROUND THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS ENHANCED OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING
THE HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VWS. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) AND PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU
36. FROM TAU 36 TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW IN
FORWARD TRANSLATION WHILE SLOWING TURNING MORE NORTHWARD. THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY IN A WEAKLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW OFFSETTING HIGH VWS, PEAKING OUT AT
35 KNOTS WITHIN THE FIRST 12 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, WITH
THE 35 KNOT WIND RADII EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LLCC. AFTER TAU 36 POINT, VWS STRENGTHENS AND COMES TO DOMINATE
THE OUTFLOW, WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW, WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH HWRF BEING THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER, AND COTC BEING THE FAR
POLEWARD OUTLIER. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A
MIXED BAG, WITH HWRF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION, WHILE
THE COAMPS MODELS AND DECAY SHIPS INDICATE A PEAK BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KNOTS. THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-05-12 17:34
JTWC/04W/#02/05-12 06Z

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 148.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 148.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 19.7N 146.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 20.3N 144.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 21.2N 143.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 22.5N 143.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 147.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp0418.gif

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发布于:2018-05-12 17:35
JTWC/04W/#02/05-12 06Z Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 120519Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
HEDGED BETWEEN A 120312Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 34 KNOTS AND A PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WHICH IS
SHEARING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. TD 04W IS BENEFITING
FROM GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS VERY
WEAK. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT RANGING BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 04W IS
TRACKING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. TD 04W WILL THEN TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR MINOR
INTENSIFICATION TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. HOWEVER,
BEYOND TAU 24 STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE TD 04W TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-05-12 22:49
JTWC/04W/#3/05-12 12Z

图片:wp0418.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 003    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 147.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 147.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 19.4N 145.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 20.4N 144.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 21.6N 143.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 22.6N 143.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 146.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN
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Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-05-12 22:50
JTWC/04W/#3/05-12 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A 121101Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS, MAINLY TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE 30 KNOT SWATH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED
ON A POCKET OF 35 KNOT WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND
40 KNOTS WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE LLCC. TS 04W IS BENEFITING FROM MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RANGING
BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 04W IS TRACKING AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 04W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STR
THROUGH TAU 24. THE TRACK OF TS 04W WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR TS
04W TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND TAU
24, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE TS 04W TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY
TAU 48 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE PASSING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK BEFORE DISSIPATION. OVERALL,
THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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热带很低的低压
热带扰动-TCFA
热带扰动-TCFA
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8楼#
发布于:2018-05-13 08:25
JTWC/04W/#4/05-12 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM EAST OF
AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED TO THE
WEST OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR
IMAGERY AND A 121752Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWING AN AREA OF 35 KNOT
WINDS AND IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.0 (30 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 34 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVELS THE SYSTEM HAS DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 20 AND
30 KNOTS WHICH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC.
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TS 04W IS TRACKING WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 04W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STR
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS INCLUDING MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR TS 04W TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE TS 04W TO
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM AFTAER
TAU 36, ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO DISSIPATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2018-05-13 10:07编辑了帖子]
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-31
  • 最后登录2018-09-25
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9楼#
发布于:2018-05-13 09:50
JTWC/04W/#04/05-12 18Z

图片:wp042018.20180513005332.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 146.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 146.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 19.5N 145.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 20.6N 144.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 21.9N 144.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 23.1N 145.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 146.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM EAST OF
AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN
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