颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[AL]墨西哥湾副热带风暴“阿尔贝托”(01L.Alberto) - 北大开季第一击,登陆西佛罗里达

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-05-22 05:28
90L INVEST 180521 1800  17.8N   84.7W ATL   20  1009

图片:20180521.2100.goes15.x.vis1km_high.90LINVEST.20kts-1009mb-178N-847W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png



1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough.  While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days.  For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-05-31 18:46编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
  • 9914dan
    威望 3
    恭喜抢到90L :)
    05-22 09:57
  • 9914dan
    金钱 3
    恭喜抢到90L :)
    05-22 09:57
喜欢0 评分2
一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
tcfa_gw
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1楼#
发布于:2018-05-22 11:37
NHC:5D 40%

1. A broad surface low pressure area has formed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize.
This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread
cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean
Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula.  While environmental
conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during
the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical
development is possible later this week while the system moves
slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
across western Cuba and much of Florida during the next several
days.  For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 AM
EDT on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

ただひとつの“今”を歌いつづける。
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红豆棒冰冰
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2楼#
发布于:2018-05-23 08:15
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low centered just east of Belize is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into the Florida peninsula.  Little
development is expected during the next couple of days due to strong
upper-level winds and proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
However, gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible
late this week while the system moves slowly into the central or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and
much of Florida during the next several days.  For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Beven

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png



图片:90L_gefs_latest.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-05-23 12:08编辑了帖子]
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Mitch
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3楼#
发布于:2018-05-23 12:37
临近美国时如果雷达数据好,NHC会派飞机实测。有亚热带性或者热带性并有加强可能就编号。如果加上有完整低层环流达到35KT就命名。
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红豆棒冰冰
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4楼#
发布于:2018-05-23 20:39
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Corrected header

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low centered near the coast of northeastern Belize
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into
the Florida Straits.  Little development is expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to
the Yucatan Peninsula.  However, environmental conditions are then
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression could form this weekend over the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands
during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_atl_2d0.png



图片:two_atl_2d1.png



图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-05-23 22:17编辑了帖子]
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wwwawa
强热带风暴
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5楼#
发布于:2018-05-23 20:49
为什么NHC认为90L48小时内发展成为热带气旋的概率是0?有点奇怪
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renzhetegong
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6楼#
发布于:2018-05-24 09:14
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits.  Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster Beven

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[renzhetegong于2018-05-24 09:16编辑了帖子]
本人帖子若有错误请编辑修正
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tcfa_gw
论坛版主-副热带高压
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7楼#
发布于:2018-05-24 21:18

1. A broad, stationary surface low pressure system centered over the
southeastern Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds,
are confined primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, gradual development of this system is expected during
the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan
Peninsula.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of
Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In
addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along
the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day
weekend. For more information on these threats, please see products
issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 200 PM EDT this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png




图片:two_atl_5d1.png

ただひとつの“今”を歌いつづける。
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红豆棒冰冰
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8楼#
发布于:2018-05-25 06:47
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png




ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday,
although the associated associated shower and thunderstorm activity
is poorly organized due to strong upper-level winds.  However,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is
likely to form during the weekend over the eastern or central Gulf
of Mexico.  Please see high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service for information on gale warnings associated with
this system.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if
necessary.  Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba
and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next
week.  In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily
increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana
over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these
threats, please see products issued by your local weather office.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 200 AM EDT Friday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png



图片:al902018.20180525003621.gif

[颱風巨爵于2018-05-25 09:08编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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9楼#
发布于:2018-05-25 20:45
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM


Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just
east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has become better defined
overnight, and thunderstorm activity has also increased and become
better organized.  Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily
become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical
depression or storm is likely to form by Saturday over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon.


Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much
of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week.  This
system could also bring tropical-storm-force winds and storm surge
to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late this weekend or early
next week.  In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily
increase along the Gulf Coast from Florida westward to Louisiana
over the Memorial Day weekend.  For more information on these
threats, please see products issued by your local weather office,
and see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
for information on gale warnings associated with this system.  The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 200 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_atl_2d0.png



图片:two_atl_2d1.png



图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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