9914dan
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[IO]孟加拉湾北部深低压BOB 01(03B) - 季风低压快速整合,携暴雨袭击缅甸沿岸,JTWC撤评级后补回升格

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更多 发布于:2018-05-28 02:01
95B INVEST 180527 1800  13.3N   88.3E IO   15   NA

图片:20180527.1730.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.95BINVEST.15kts-NAmb-133N-883E.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2018-05-30 19:44编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
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刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
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1楼#
发布于:2018-05-28 10:47
WTIN20 DEMS 270550

                        TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 27.05.2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
27.05.2018 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 27.05.2018.
BAY OF BENGAL:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL (BOB) AROUND 28TH MAY, 2018.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BOB, CENTRAL BOB, ANDAMAN SEA,
GULF OF MANNAR AND TENNASSERIM COAST.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:

24 HOURS         NIL
24-48 HOURS      NIL
48-72 HOURS      LOW
72-96 HOURS      LOW

96-120 HOURS     NIL
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Mitch
禁止发言-干空气
禁止发言-干空气
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2楼#
发布于:2018-05-28 11:15
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
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红豆棒冰冰
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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发布于:2018-05-28 11:58
ABIO10 PGTW 280200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/280200Z-281800ZMAY2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INV 94A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.7N
71.9E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272306Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT MIDLEVEL TURNING IN FLARING CONVECTION COVERING A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE
PERSISTENT LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS HIGH (25-30 KTS) OVER MUCH OF THE CONVECTION. SSTS ARE WARM
(28-29C) IN THE ARABIAN SEA AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WEAK-MODERATE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE TAU 24 AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS INDIA, WITH SOME VARIATION IN MOVEMENT AND
SPEED AFFECTING DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INV 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.2N
89.2E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION AND
BROAD TURNING ABOVE AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10-15 KTS), AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS EXCELLENT DUE
TO RADIAL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE VERY WARM (29-30C) IN THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A
NORTHEASTERN TRACK TOWARD MYANMAR, WITH 95B POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND TAU 24-36 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND PARA
1.B.(2) AS LOW.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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真宫寺小乔
荣誉会员-暖池
荣誉会员-暖池
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4楼#
发布于:2018-05-28 14:34
这个系统可以说是一个比较标准的印度洋季风低压系统了——体积大,云系范围广,中心不明显。不过各家路径预报的这货走的并不算快,随着季风进一步北上,这货还是有机会发展出td及其以上级别的系统。不过,如果真要这么大的体积登陆孟加拉一带,那造成的损失...
我知道我很笨,很没用,可是,我白天拼命练习法术,我很努力!夜晚…发奋提高知识,然后每天……到拼抢散派任务,这么多的努力和汗水,都是为了能和姐姐们一样,成为一个堂堂正正的狐妖!
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superstorm
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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5楼#
发布于:2018-05-28 19:38
麻烦可大了,俩季风低压系统同时夹击北印度,降雨量可能很大。不过挨得太近这样相互影响强度不大(这个季节强度本来就不大)
[superstorm于2018-05-28 19:42编辑了帖子]
以后去海南工作,那里才有大台风可以看
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红豆棒冰冰
强热带风暴
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发布于:2018-05-28 22:02
ABIO10 PGTW 281330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/281330Z-281800ZMAY2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 71.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.2N 89.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 90.9E, APPROXIMATELY 430
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281204Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH, BUT NOT WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 280319Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS
MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE FLOW WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15?
20 KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER (35 KNOT WINDS) TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (5-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO IF IT
WILL CONSOLIDATE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: THE AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) HAS
DISSIPATED. UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:2018IO95_4KMIRIMG_201805281400.gif

图片:20180528.1400.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.95BINVEST.20kts-1003mb-157N-909E.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2018-05-30 19:04编辑了帖子]
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wwwawa
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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7楼#
发布于:2018-05-28 22:49
受95B外围环流影响 云南西南部出现降水 NMC预报24小时内云南西部降水量可达70mm

图片:SEVP_NMC_STFC_SFER_ER24_ACHN_L88_P9_20180528120002400.jpg

这季风低压的影响范围真的是巨大啊
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327
327
超强台风
超强台风
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8楼#
发布于:2018-05-29 15:20
JTWC:TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 290630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1N 91.7E TO 23.8N 95.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 92.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 90.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 92.0E, APPROXIMATELY 329
NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 290400Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS BARBS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE IS THE LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. VERY WARM (30-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THE SYSTEM AS IS TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST BUT
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO IF IT WILL CONSOLIDATE AND REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300630Z.
//
NNNN

图片:io9518.gif

图片:abiosair.jpg

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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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9楼#
发布于:2018-05-29 16:52
IMD定为well marked LPA。早上的风场扫描显示系统气旋性风场完整,且中心附近已有30kt风速,JTWC急忙发出TCFA,晚上应该就会升格03B。

图片:QQ图片20180530073444.jpg


图片:WMBds220.png


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


图片:20180529.0800.hm8.x.vis1km.95BINVEST.30kts-997mb-187N-922E.100pc.jpg


图片:20180529.074000.aqua.modis.Visible.tc1895BINVEST.covg81p0.modislance.res1km.jpg


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 29.05.2018 BASED ON
0300 UTC OF 29.05.2018.

BAY OF BENGAL:
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND
NEIGHBOURHOOD HAS BECOME WELL MARKED AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF
TODAY, THE 29TH MAY, 2018 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12
HOURS.

BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.00N & 20.50N AND
LONGITUDE 83.00E O 96.00E, MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -930C.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
MODERATE MODERATE NIL NIL NIL
[9914dan于2018-05-30 19:12编辑了帖子]
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