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[WP]1804号热带气旋“艾云尼”(05W.Ewiniar)机构发报专贴

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-06-01 09:46

图片:wp9918 (1).gif


WTPN21 PGTW 010230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N 115.8E TO 12.6N 112.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 115.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 116.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 115.7E, APPROXIMATELY 210
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LLCC. VWS REMAINS LOW (10-15 KTS) AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS.
SSTS REMAIN WARM (29-30C) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT 99W WILL ASSUME A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND NOW DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 HOURS,
WITH THE UKMO AND JGSM DISSENTING AND NOT DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020230Z.//
NNNN
[9914dan于2018-06-06 09:40编辑了帖子]
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    TCFA!
    06-01 10:30
  • 9914dan
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    TCFA!
    06-01 10:30
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933954
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1楼#
发布于:2018-06-02 09:24
JMA/TD-a/06-02 00Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年06月02日10時25分 発表

图片:a-00 (2).png



<02日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南シナ海
中心位置 北緯 10度20分(10.3度)
東経 113度00分(113.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)


<03日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 13度00分(13.0度)
東経 112度00分(112.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
[933954于2018-06-02 09:32编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
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327
327
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发布于:2018-06-02 10:30
JTWC/99W/TCFA/06-02 0230Z

图片:wp992018.20180602021906.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 020230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010221Z JUN 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 010230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 114.2E TO 17.0N 110.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 113.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 114.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 113.3E APPROXIMIATLY 348
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 012053Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE THAT 99W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND DEVELOP
WITHIN 24HOURS, BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21
PGTW 010230).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030230Z.
NNNN
[327于2018-06-02 11:00编辑了帖子]
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3楼#
发布于:2018-06-02 12:14
JMA/TD-a/06-02 03Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年06月02日13時15分 発表

图片:a-00 (2).png


<02日12時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南シナ海
中心位置 北緯 11度10分(11.2度)
東経 113度00分(113.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<03日12時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 13度50分(13.8度)
東経 112度00分(112.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
[933954于2018-06-02 12:19编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-06-02 15:20
CMA/TD02/06-02 06Z
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 020600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 02 INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC
00HR 11.5N 111.3E 1004HPA 13M/S
MOVE NNE 10KM/H
P+12HR 12.5N 111.6E 998HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 13.7N 111.8E 998HPA 18M/S
P+36HR 14.9N 111.9E 995HPA 20M/S
P+48HR 16.1N 111.8E 995HPA 20M/S
P+60HR 17.4N 111.6E 990HPA 23M/S
P+72HR 18.8N 111.2E 985HPA 25M/S
P+96HR 19.9N 110.2E 995HPA 20M/S
P+120HR 20.9N 109.2E 990HPA 23M/S=
NNNN

图片:ENG_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180602140000011.jpg

[iam最小值于2018-06-02 18:17编辑了帖子]
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  • tcfa_gw
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    06-02 16:21
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5楼#
发布于:2018-06-02 15:22
JMA/TD-a/06-02 06Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年06月02日16時15分 発表

<02日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        南シナ海
中心位置        北緯 11度25分(11.4度)
東経 113度00分(113.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<03日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 14度25分(14.4度)
東経 111度40分(111.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)



图片:a-00.png

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  • 9914dan
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    06-03 16:23
キズナミュージック? 大切な歌 青春の歌 始まりの歌 奏でよう!何度でもいつまでも 精一杯!Forever for dreaming! 歌を信じる——
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933954
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发布于:2018-06-02 16:12
JTWC/05W/#01/06-02 06Z

图片:wp052018.20180602074430.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020221JUN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 112.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 112.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 13.5N 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 14.6N 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 15.6N 109.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 16.7N 109.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 18.7N 108.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 19.9N 108.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 20.9N 108.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 111.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z. THIS CANCELS
AND SUPERSEEDS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 020230).//
//
NNNN
[933954于2018-06-02 16:55编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
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327
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发布于:2018-06-02 16:50
JTWC/05W/#01/06-02 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SUSTAINED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 020238Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
LIMITED BANDING AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. A
020140Z METOP-A SCATTEROMETER IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 25-30 KNOT
WINDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH, WEST, AND SOUTH. BASED ON THE
LACK OF A CLEAR INDICATION OF THE POSITION OF THE LLCC, THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 05W IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE REGION FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KNOTS AS IT FOLLOWS THIS TRACK AS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW WILL INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. THE ECMWF IS A NOTABLE
EXCEPTION, WITH ITS TRACK EAST OF THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE FACT THAT ECMWF IS THE
OUTLIER LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE AND APPROACHES THE
BORDER BETWEEN VIETNAM AND CHINA AS A 40 KNOT CYCLONE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES AT THIS TIME WITH SOME MEMBERS
ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND OTHER MODELS
PREDICTING THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ROUNDS THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS. AS
FOR INTENSITY, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE OFFSET BY LIMITED
OUTFLOW AND INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY DURING THIS
PERIOD. FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
//
NNNN
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  • 9914dan
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红豆棒冰冰
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8楼#
发布于:2018-06-02 19:31
JMA/TD-a/06-02 09Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年06月02日18時45分 発表


<02日18時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南シナ海
中心位置 北緯 12度00分(12.0度)
東経 113度00分(113.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)


<03日18時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 14度30分(14.5度)
東経 111度40分(111.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

图片:a-00.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-06-02 19:33编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
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    06-03 16:24
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-06-02 19:35
CMA/TD02/06-02 09Z
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 020900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 02 INITIAL TIME 020900 UTC
00HR 11.8N 111.4E 1004HPA 13M/S
MOVE NNE 11KM/H
P+12HR 12.9N 111.7E 998HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 14.1N 111.8E 998HPA 18M/S
P+36HR 15.3N 111.9E 995HPA 20M/S
P+48HR 16.5N 111.8E 995HPA 20M/S
P+60HR 17.8N 111.6E 990HPA 23M/S
P+72HR 19.2N 110.9E 985HPA 25M/S
P+96HR 20.2N 109.7E 995HPA 20M/S
P+120HR 21.0N 108.6E 990HPA 23M/S=
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180602170000009.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-06-02 19:49编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
    威望 2
    优秀帖
    06-03 16:24
欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
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