颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
  • 最后登录2018-10-23
  • 粉丝61
  • 关注1
  • 发帖数445
  • 来自
阅读:860回复:1

[WP]91W机构发报专贴

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-06-04 08:45

图片:wp912018.20180604004128.gif



WTPN21 PGTW 040100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 142.5E TO 16.8N 135.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 141.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050100Z.//
NNNN
WTPN21 PGTW 040100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 142.5E TO 16.8N 135.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 141.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
142.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 141.3E, APPROXIMATELY 198 NM FROM
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 040015Z MHS 89GHZ METOP-B
MICROWAVE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND ALSO SHOWS THE
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE
TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050100Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED SUPPORTING INFORMATION TO THE
REMARKS SECTION.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2018-06-04 16:41编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 威望 +2 贡献值 +2
  • 9914dan
    贡献值 2
    91W TCFA
    06-04 09:54
  • 9914dan
    威望 2
    91W TCFA
    06-04 09:54
喜欢0 评分2
Society is dead, long live society!
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-31
  • 最后登录2018-10-23
  • 粉丝132
  • 关注58
  • 发帖数4382
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2018-06-05 10:15
JTWC/91W/TCFA Cancelled/06-05 0100Z
WTPN21 PGTW 050100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040051Z JUN 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 040100)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 040100). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 141.3E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 135.1E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION. A
042254Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE SYSTEM
PROPAGATING WESTWARD AND COMBINING WITH INVEST 90W BEFORE
INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1021
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

图片:wp912018.20180605010532.gif

1条评分, 威望 +2
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
游客

返回顶部