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[EP]墨西哥西南四级飓风“阿莱塔”(02E.Aletta) - 结构迅速改善,今年东太首飓 - NHC:120KT

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更多 发布于:2018-06-04 20:43
91E INVEST 180604 1200  10.5N  101.6W EPAC   20  1009

图片:20180604.1500.goes15.x.vis1km.91EINVEST.20kts-1009mb-105N-1016W.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-06-12 14:29编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2018-06-04 20:53
这编号来的太晚了,NHC都快升格了。

1. A trough of low pressure located about 500 hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next two to three days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png

ただひとつの“今”を歌いつづける。
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红豆棒冰冰
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2楼#
发布于:2018-06-04 23:04
WTPN21 PHNC 041430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 101.3W TO 13.9N 106.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 041330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N
101.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
101.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.6W, APPROXIMATELY
394 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH
ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION. A 041108Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING FROM
AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) INTO AN
AREA OF LOW VWS. SSTS ARE WARM (28-29C) AND WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING A
CIRCULATION TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IN LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051430Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9118.gif

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红豆棒冰冰
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3楼#
发布于:2018-06-05 18:38
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 4 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are conducive for the development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure could form by the weekend a few hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Gradual development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown

图片:two_pac_2d0.png



图片:two_pac_2d1.png



图片:two_pac_5d0.png



图片:two_pac_5d1.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-06-05 18:40编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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4楼#
发布于:2018-06-05 19:57
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 5 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight
near an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next
couple of days while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure could form by Friday a few hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Upper-level winds are forecast
gradually become more favorable for development, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_pac_2d0.png



图片:two_pac_2d1.png



图片:two_pac_5d0.png



图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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炎煌深沉
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5楼#
发布于:2018-06-05 22:10
WTPN21 PHNC 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041421Z JUN 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
041430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7N 103.7W TO 15.1N 107.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 104.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5N
101.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.7W, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LOW (5-10KT) VWS. SSTS ARE
WARM (28-29C) AND WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING A CIRCULATION TRACKING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061430Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9118 (1).gif


图片:20180605.1500.goes15.x.vis1km.91EINVEST.25kts-1008mb-130N-1040W.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2018-06-06 00:07编辑了帖子]
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renzhetegong
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6楼#
发布于:2018-06-06 01:28
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 5 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, are
becoming better organized.  In addition, satellite images indicate
that the circulation of the system is now better defined.  Continued
development of this system is expected, and it will likely become a
tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a
few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to gradually become more favorable for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:two_pac_2d0 (1).png

图片:two_pac_5d1 (1).png

[renzhetegong于2018-06-06 01:30编辑了帖子]
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meow
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7楼#
发布于:2018-06-06 10:44
首报上看85kt。(无法上传)

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 060232
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 05 2018

During the past several hours, a prominent convective band began
developing in association with the low pressure system that we have
been tracking south of Mexico during the past few days.  In using
that band for Dvorak estimates, TAFB provided a satellite intensity
estimate of T2.0/30 kt while SAB provided an estimate of T1.5/25
kt.  In addition, GOES-16 1-minute visible satellite imagery showed
that the low had developed a closed surface circulation and a
well-defined center.  Advisories are therefore being initiated on
Tropical Depression Two-E, with an initial intensity of 30 kt based
on an earlier partial ASCAT pass.

The depression is currently moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
However, due to a mid-level ridge centered over northwestern Mexico,
the cyclone is expected to turn westward and slow down during the
next 24 hours.  By days 3-5, the cyclone should reach a weakness in
the ridge, allowing it to turn back toward the northwest but
maintain its slow motion.  While the dynamical models all generally
agree on this scenario, there are some noticeable differences in the
guidance.  The ECMWF lies to the south of the other models, while
the HWRF is to the north and generally faster than the other
guidance.  For this first official forecast, the NHC prediction lies
close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and is of
average confidence.

Environmental conditions appear ideal for intensification.  Sea
surface temperatures will be close to 30 degrees Celsius for the
next 36 hours, while at the same time deep-layer shear will be very
low and upper-level divergence will be high.  In response, the Rapid
Intensification Indices are giving a 50/50 chance of a 45-kt
increase in 36 hours and a 55-kt increase in 48 hours.  As a
result, the NHC official intensity forecast is rather aggressive and
lies slightly above the highest guidance through the first 3 days,
making the cyclone a hurricane by 36 hours.  Gradual weakening is
expected on days 4 and 5 when the hurricane reaches cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 14.1N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 14.3N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 14.5N 107.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 14.7N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 14.8N 109.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 15.3N 112.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 16.5N 113.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

图片:023350_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[iam最小值于2018-06-06 11:25编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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zjk369
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8楼#
发布于:2018-06-06 15:03
已命名
Tropical Storm ALETTA
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 06, 2018:
Location: 14.1°N 106.2°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 210 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

Eye Diameter: N/A

图片:QQ图片20180606222815.gif


图片:QQ图片20180606222806.gif

[9914dan于2018-06-06 22:32编辑了帖子]
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renzhetegong
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发布于:2018-06-06 16:45
升40KT
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 060832
TCDEP2
Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 06 2018
Deep convection has increased significantly during the past 12
hours, and the cloud pattern is better organized with the formation
of a few cyclonically curved bands. The outflow is fair in all
quadrants. An ASCAT pass a few hours ago, indicate that the winds
are between 35 to 40 kt, but these winds are confined to a band to
the east of the center.  On this basis, the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Aletta, the first named system of the
2018 eastern North Pacific season.
An prevailing environment of low shear favors intensification, and
although the Rapid Intensification Indices are not as high as
earlier, they are still on the high side. The NHC forecast calls for
Aletta to become a hurricane in 36 hours as indicated in the
previous forecast. After 3 days, when the cyclone reaches cooler
water and higher shear, a gradual weakening is anticipated.
It appears that Aletta is moving toward the west at about 6 kt
around the periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over
northwestern Mexico. However, a weakness in the ridge should cause
the cyclone to gradually gain some latitude during the next few days
with no significant change in forward speed. The NHC forecast
follows the model consensus, and it is basically centered in the
middle of the guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north
and the ECMWF to the south.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 14.1N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  06/1800Z 14.2N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 14.6N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 15.0N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H 09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 16.5N 114.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 17.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila

图片:QQ图片20180606164028.png

[renzhetegong于2018-06-06 16:46编辑了帖子]
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