9914dan
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[EP]墨西哥以西四级飓风“巴德”(03E.Bud) - 东太三天内连产两MH,掠过下加利福尼亚半岛 - NHC:115KT

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更多 发布于:2018-06-08 20:58
92E INVEST 180608 1200  12.0N   97.0W EPAC   20  1008

图片:20180608.1500.goes15.x.ir1km_bw.92EINVEST.20kts-1008mb-120N-970W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png



Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec has increased during the past several hours, but remains
disorganized.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become conducive
for development later today, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form over the weekend while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
[9914dan于2018-06-16 15:23编辑了帖子]
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追风的小孩
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1楼#
发布于:2018-06-09 13:47
%100
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 8 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Aletta, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
centered about 400 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, have become more
concentrated since yesterday, and the low's circulation is becoming
better defined.  Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form by late Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph parallel to but offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico.  For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

图片:6ecca400838c75ba00e164d0c1342adf_two_pac_2d0.png

图片:d9a41cf1551d1b19e67e4c9794a55884_two_pac_5d1.png

[追风的小孩于2018-06-09 13:59编辑了帖子]
广西壮族自治区贵港市港北区荷城小学4年级3班学生
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feidele
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发布于:2018-06-09 15:44
以前100%直升 03E了
费德勒 伟大的运动员
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-06-09 22:28
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 9 2018


For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:


The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Aletta, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.


1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
centered about 400 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are becoming
better organized.  If current trends continue, advisories could be
initiated later today while the system moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph, parallel to, but offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico.  For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


Forecaster Beven

图片:two_pac_2d0.png



图片:two_pac_2d1.png



图片:two_pac_5d0.png



图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-06-09 22:39
两报TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 081430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 96.3W TO 13.2N 101.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 97.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 97.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. OF NOTE, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONING OF 92E
AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS UNDEFINED AND THE INVEST WAS
OPENED BASED ON ANTICIPATED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS. THE DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING INTO AN AREA OF
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS WHICH WILL ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
REACH WARNING CRITERIA AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091430Z.
//
NNNN

图片:ep9218.gif





WTPN21 PHNC 091430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081421Z JUN 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 081430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 100.0W TO 15.1N 105.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 100.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA IF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.7N 100.7W, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH
(20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND REACH WARNING CRITERIA AS
IT MOVES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101430Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9218 (1).gif

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933954
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5楼#
发布于:2018-06-10 08:40
命名Bud
EP, 03, 2018061000,   , BEST,   0, 126N, 1017W,  35, 1003, TS,  34, NEQ,   50,   50,   50,   50, 1010,  210,  50,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,        BUD, D,
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zjk369
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发布于:2018-06-10 09:45
Tropical Storm BUD
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 10, 2018:
Location: 12.6°N 101.7°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 210 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

图片:20180610.0000.goes-15.vis.1km.03E.BUD.35kts.1003mb.12.6N.101.7W.100pc.jpg




000
WTPZ43 KNHC 100232
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized during
the past several hours. Satellite imagery shows several curved
bands of deep convection developing around the center while the
upper-level outflow is gradually improving. Dvorak T-numbers from
all agencies have increased, and a TAFB classification of T2.5
supports upgrading the depression to a tropical storm with 35-kt
winds in this advisory.

Tropical Storm Bud is expected to be over warm waters and
embedded within light shear for the next 3 days or so. These
conditions favor strengthening, which could be even more than what
is indicated in the NHC forecast given the high RI indices in the
SHIPS model.  Nevertheless, most of the guidance forecast
strengthening, and the official forecast very closely follows the
HCCA and FSSE intensity models. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening
should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja
California peninsula.

Bud is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 9 kt. The
cyclone is currently steered by the flow around the periphery
of a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United States and
northern Mexico. However, Bud is expected to reach the western
portion of the ridge, and then its core should move toward the
northwest and north off the southwestern coast of Mexico and
toward the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in
remarkably good agreement, which significantly increases the
confidence in the official forecast.

Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast
of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of
the coast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 12.9N 102.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 13.8N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 14.9N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 15.9N 106.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 18.0N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 19.5N 109.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 21.5N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

图片:204013_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[颱風巨爵于2018-06-10 10:37编辑了帖子]
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MTWP
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发布于:2018-06-11 02:31
东太二连飓

EP, 03, 2018061018,   , BEST,   0, 151N, 1038W,  65,  987, HU,  34, NEQ,  125,  125,   60,   60, 1010,  180,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,        BUD, D,

图片:20180610.1800.goes15.x.vis1km.03EBUD.55kts-994mb-144N-1032W.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2018-06-12 18:31编辑了帖子]
眩しさだけは、忘れなかった。
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renzhetegong
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发布于:2018-06-11 09:19
Hurricane BUD
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 11, 2018:
Location: 15.7°N 104.6°W
Maximum Winds: 70 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 984 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 25 NM

图片:goes16_vis-swir_03E_201806110035.jpg

图片:03E_intensity_latest.png

[renzhetegong于2018-06-11 10:56编辑了帖子]
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meow
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发布于:2018-06-11 10:20
这么早就要登陆墨西哥
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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