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[WP]07W机构发报专贴

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更多 发布于:2018-06-13 09:30

图片:wp932018.20180613012118.gif



WTPN21 PGTW 130200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.8N 118.5E TO 26.7N 127.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 130130Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 120.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.5N 118.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 120.3E, APPROXIMATELY
510 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS
A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION AND IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAIU FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 122236Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT. A RECENT ASCAT
IMAGE AND MULTIPLE SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITH
SOME ISOLATED 35 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY CONVECTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE
NEAR OKINAWA AS IT MERGES WITH THE BAIU FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
140200Z.//
NNNN
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【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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发布于:2018-06-14 07:10
JTWC/07W/#1/06-13 18Z

WTPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 23.8N 123.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 123.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 26.5N 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 29.3N 131.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 24.5N 124.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 130200).
//
NNNN

图片:wp0718.png

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发布于:2018-06-14 07:12
JTWC/07W/#1/06-13 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM A
RECENT FLARE UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS 07W MOVES
CLOSER TO THE POLAR FRONT JET (PFJ) TO ITS NORTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A 131724Z 88.2GHZ ATMS
IMAGE SHOWING LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, BUT LITTLE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TD 07W IS LOCATED ON THE BOUNDARY OF THE
STATIONARY BAIU FRONT WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOCATED IN THIS
AREA, AND BEGAN AS AN AREA OF CYCLONIC SHEAR BETWEEN THE BAIU FRONT
AND SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON SURGE. 07W IS TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. A 131320Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25 KT
WINDS CLOSE IN TO THE CENTER, AND A SHRINKING RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS AND INCREASED SYMMETRY IN THE WIND FIELD, INDICATIVE OF
INCREASED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A CIRA AMSU-B CROSS SECTION AT
130900Z REVEALS A WARM-CORE ANOMALY IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE, ALSO
INDICATIVE OF A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A MORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (29-30 C), SUPPORTING THE TROPICAL
ASSESSMENT OF 07W AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE PFJ IS DIRECTLY TO THE
NORTH OF 07W AND 07W IS POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS, IT STILL DISPLAYS
EQUATORWARD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, FUELING LIMITED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, MODERATE TO SEVERE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ALREADY DISRUPTING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF 07W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TD 07W WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST
AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PFJ WESTERLY FLOW. TD 07W IS
EXPECTED TO IMMEDIATELY BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AND A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BY TAU 12. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
07W WILL DISPLAY INCREASING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, AN EXPANDING
WIND FIELD, AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 35 KTS AS 07W TAPS INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES, TEMPORARILY ENHANCING OUTFLOW, BEFORE 07W SLIDES UNDER
THE JET ALTOGETHER. ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AFTER 07W
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, WHICH IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS DUE TO TIGHT AGREEMENT IN
MODEL TRACKERS THAT 07W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF KADENA WHILE
ACCELERATING. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-06-14 09:45
JTWC/07W/#02/06-14 00Z
WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 25.4N 124.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 124.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 28.1N 128.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 30.7N 134.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 125.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
//
NNNN

图片:wp072018.20180614014626.gif

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发布于:2018-06-14 10:00
JTWC/07W/#02/06-14 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 140000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LLCC JUST TO THE WEST OF A SMALL
FLARE OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE USING THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND A 132244Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION, MOST OF IT FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 35 KTS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS OF 27 KTS, 995MB, FROM 60 NM AWAY AT THE SHIMOJI SHIMA
ISLAND STATION AS 07W PROPAGATED AWAY. 07W IS TRACKING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND ACCELERATING AS IT
MOVES UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. A CIRA AMSU-B CROSS SECTION
AT 132000Z REVEALS THE WARM CORE ANOMALY IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM (29-30 C), SUPPORTING THE TROPICAL ASSESSMENT OF 07W AT THIS
TIME. WHILE 07W IS MOVING UNDER THE POLAR FRONT JET, IT STILL
DISPLAYS EQUATORWARD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, FUELING LIMITED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO SEVERE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS ALREADY SHEARING 07W?S CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF ITS LLCC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TD 07W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST, CARRIED ALONG WITH THE JET. TD 07W IS EXPECTED TO
IMMEDIATELY BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AND A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BY TAU 12. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 07W WILL
DISPLAY INCREASING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD,
AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AT A
MARGINAL 35 KTS AS 07W MOVES UNDER THE JET. THE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AT TAU 24 AND BEYOND WILL OCCUR DUE TO
EXTRATROPICAL PROCESSES. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS
DUE TO TIGHT AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACKERS THAT 07W WILL TRACK
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AND GRADUALLY ACQUIRE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
DUE TO THE JET WHILE ACCELERATING. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-06-14 16:30
JTWC/07W/#03/06-14 06Z
WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 26.6N 126.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 126.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 29.2N 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 31.2N 136.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 127.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM WEST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 08W (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp072018.20180614080439.gif

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发布于:2018-06-14 16:49
JTWC/07W/#03/06-14 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING
NR 003//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM WEST
OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 140636Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH ALSO SHOWS THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 140147Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING 35 KNOT WIND BARBS AND A WIND FIELD THAT IS BECOMING
ASYMMETRIC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 07W IS EXPERIENCING
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS). HOWEVER, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS
07W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A WARM CORE SYSTEM BUT IS ALSO BECOMING
ASYMMETRIC. TS 07W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE JET STREAM AND AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24 AS
IT RAPIDLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET
STREAM. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP THE DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TS 07W WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[tcfa_gw于2018-06-14 16:55编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-06-14 22:59
JTWC/07W/#04/06-14 12Z
WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 004    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z --- NEAR 27.9N 129.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 129.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 30.5N 135.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 32.3N 140.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 131.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH TS 07W IS BEING SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 141201Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND SEVERAL 35 KNOT WIND BARBS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 07W HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES AND IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (50
TO 60 KNOTS). A 140900Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS-SECTION
SHOWS THAT TS 07W IS LOSING ANY REMAINING WARM CORE
CHARACTERISTICS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE ALSO INDICATES THAT
TS 07W IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH A WEST TO EAST MOVING TROUGH. TS 07W
WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
(EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp0718.png

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