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93E INVEST 180613 0600 11.8N 97.3W EPAC 20 1009
图片：20180613.1200.goes15.x.ir1km_bw.93EINVEST.20kts-1009mb-118N-973W.100pc.jpg  图片：two_pac_2d1.png 图片：two_pac_5d1.png
1. An area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south- southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive, and slow development could occur during the next couple of days as the system drifts north-northwestward. By the weekend, interaction with land is expected to limit further organization. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain causing flash floods and mudslides is possible over the southern portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca beginning in a day or so and continuing into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. [颱風巨爵于2018-06-27 11:54编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于：2018-06-14 10:11
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Jun 13 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bud, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. A low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to show signs of organization, however satellite data show that the system does not currently have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for additional development and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days while the low moves slowly north-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain causing flash floods and mudslides is possible over the southern portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca beginning tomorrow and continuing into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky 图片：two_pac_2d0.png
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2楼#
发布于：2018-06-14 12:55
WTPN21 PHNC 140500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 97.8W TO 14.7N 101.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 99.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 98.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 99.4W, APPROXIMATELY 1567 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH 93E. A 140127Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS). HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 93E WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 150500Z.// NNNN 图片：ep9318.gif |
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3楼#
发布于：2018-06-15 21:52
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 150833 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 The center of the depression has been difficult to locate, although GOES-16 infrared satellite images and radar data from Acapulco suggest that the system as a whole has not moved very much. Deep convection has increased over the past few hours, but it bears little association with the estimated center and is focused primarily where low-level convergence is maximized near the coast. Although some strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, moderate northerly shear and the cyclone's proximity to land will likely limit the amount of intensification that can occur. The SHIPS guidance only shows modest strengthening, and the global models don't really deepen the low much, if any, before it moves inland. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and HCCA models and is a little lower than the previous forecast at 48 h. A 72-hour point is provided inland for continuity, but the cyclone could dissipate before that time. The depression is currently stationary in a region absent of steering currents. However, as a low- to mid-level trough moves northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas in the coming days, that feature should cause the depression to drift northeastward and then northward, moving inland over southern Mexico between 48-72 hours. The new NHC forecast is slightly east of the previous one, following the preponderance of the available guidance. As noted before, there is lower-than-normal confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts. Changes to the forecast, as well as modifications to the warned areas, could be required in subsequent advisories if the location and size of the cyclone become clearer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 15.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 15.4N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.5N 99.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 15.8N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.2N 99.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 16.9N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg 图片：115437_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png |
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4楼#
发布于：2018-06-16 20:22
Carlotta環流袖珍，出乎意料在近岸徘徊，並稍為增強，數值模式的短期預報全軍覆沒。發佈員亦帶上了諷刺的口吻。
Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 A surprise during the midnight shift. Tiny Carlotta is stronger and is not moving as anticipated. Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is better organized with a well defined cyclonically curved band wrapping around a small area of convection near the center. T-numbers from TAFB, SAB and UW/CIMSS are unanimously 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. ASCAT missed it this time. Depending how long Carlotta remains nearly stationary over water, some additional strengthening could occur. Once it moves inland, if at all, rapid weakening is anticipated. The center is difficult to locate, but it has to be very near the given position, since the cyclone has been meandering during the past several hours. The track forecast is highly uncertain and I mean highly uncertain.  Deterministic runs of the
global models have failed miserably in forecasting the track of Carlotta, at least in the very short term. In the earlier 00 UTC guidance, most of the NHC trackers moved the cyclone northeastward. However, at 06 UTC, most of the available trackers changed and now move the cyclone toward the west-northwest along the coast of Mexico. This shift in track also includes HCCA and HWRF models. The GFS, ECMWF and UK models quickly dissipate Carlotta, so most of the consensus are not available at 06 UTC. Given the uncertainty in the forecast, the NHC forecast calls for little motion in the next 12 hours, and then a gradual northward track toward the coast within the warning area. Although this is a change from the previous NHC forecast, it is not necessary a change in the warnings. Despite the changes in track tonight, the impacts have not changed. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be the heavy rainfall and the associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The significant rainfall threat is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre mountains. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 99.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 16.0N 99.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.5N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila 图片：20180616.0939.f15.85rgb.04E.CARLOTTA.45kts.1000mb.15.8N.99.5W.090pc.jpg
图片：20180616.0900.goes15.ir.BD.04ECARLOTTA.45kts-1000mb.jpg
图片：aep04_2018061606_track_early.png [颱風巨爵于2018-06-16 20:47编辑了帖子]
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5楼#
发布于：2018-06-17 02:10
如果爆发。阿卡普尔科将受到较大威胁
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6楼#
发布于：2018-06-17 15:21
WTPN31 PHNC 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 99.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 99.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.0N 100.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.5N 100.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.0N 101.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170400Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 99.8W. TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1367 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z. // NNNN 图片：ep0418.gif Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 Carlotta has surprised us this evening. Radar images from Acapulco, Mexico, indicate that the storm has strengthened and its structure has improved significantly. The radar data indicate that Carlotta has a well-defined, but tiny, inner core and the eye has been contracting during the past few hours. In addition, the radar echoes in the eyewall has been getting stronger and more symmetric around the eye. The initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Carlotta is very close to the coast of southern Mexico and, in fact, the northern eyewall is partially onshore. Since the storm is expected to interact with land and is forecast to move inland overnight or Sunday morning, it appears unlikely that Carlotta will strengthen much more. Once inland, fast weakening is expected and Carlotta should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico Sunday night or early Monday. The storm has moved more to the west than previous thought, likely due to the influence of a narrow mid-level ridge to its north. The new forecast is adjusted well to the west of the previous one, and is in fair agreement with the latest consensus models. Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the threat of heavy rainfall and potential of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides continue over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.6N 99.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 18/0000Z 17.5N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 18.0N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi 图片：ItaVixg.gif
图片：Df2MWZBUwAAcsHn.png
雷达图像来源：Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico) Twitter 图片：20180616.2131.gpm.37hbt.04E.CARLOTTA.45kts.1000mb.16N.99.2W.060pc.jpg [颱風巨爵于2018-06-18 13:54编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于：2018-06-18 16:41
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 Visible satellite imagery indicates that Carlotta has maintained a small but robust low-level circulation, with strong convection bursting over and south of the well-defined center. Satellite intensity estimates are T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Based on these data, the intensity is being maintained at 25 kt and Carlotta is still classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 295/04 kt. The recent development of deep convection has likely amplified the vertical circulation, resulting in the forward motion being slightly retarded by the north-northwesterly upper-level winds. However, a stout ridge to the north of the small cyclone should keep the system moving in a general west-northwestward direction just offshore the coast of Mexico for the next day or so. Pulsing convection with tops to near -80C has been occurring since the previous advisory. However, vertical wind shear of around 15 kt along with drier mid-level air coming in off of mainland Mexico are expected to steadily weaken the system, resulting in degeneration into a remnant low on Monday. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Consult products issued by your national meteorological service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.2N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 17.4N 102.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
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