颱風巨爵
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墨西哥以南近岸热带低压“卡洛塔”(04E.Carlotta) - 环流极其袖珍,曾建立底层眼,模式预报失败

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更多 发布于:2018-06-13 19:59
93E INVEST 180613 0600  11.8N   97.3W EPAC   20  1009

图片:20180613.1200.goes15.x.ir1km_bw.93EINVEST.20kts-1009mb-118N-973W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png



1. An area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined
since yesterday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive, and slow development could occur during the
next couple of days as the system drifts north-northwestward.  By
the weekend, interaction with land is expected to limit further
organization.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rain
causing flash floods and mudslides is possible over the southern
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca beginning in
a day or so and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-06-18 02:40编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
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    93E!!
    06-13 20:27
  • 9914dan
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    93E!!
    06-13 20:27
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一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
红豆棒冰冰
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1楼#
发布于:2018-06-14 10:11
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, continues to show signs of organization, however satellite
data show that the system does not currently have a well-defined
circulation.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive for additional development and a tropical
depression could form over the next couple of days while the low
moves slowly north-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rain causing flash floods and mudslides is possible over the
southern portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca
beginning tomorrow and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

图片:two_pac_2d0.png



图片:two_pac_2d1.png



图片:two_pac_5d0.png



图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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炎煌深沉
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2楼#
发布于:2018-06-14 12:55
WTPN21 PHNC 140500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 97.8W TO 14.7N 101.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 99.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 98.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 99.4W, APPROXIMATELY 1567
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH 93E. A 140127Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS). HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (27 TO 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 93E WILL SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150500Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9318.gif

也甘愿赴汤蹈火去走它一遍~~
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红豆棒冰冰
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3楼#
发布于:2018-06-15 21:52
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 150833
TCDEP4


Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018


The center of the depression has been difficult to locate, although
GOES-16 infrared satellite images and radar data from Acapulco
suggest that the system as a whole has not moved very much.  Deep
convection has increased over the past few hours, but it bears
little association with the estimated center and is focused
primarily where low-level convergence is maximized near the coast.
Although some strengthening is possible over the next couple of
days, moderate northerly shear and the cyclone's proximity to land
will likely limit the amount of intensification that can occur.
The SHIPS guidance only shows modest strengthening, and the global
models don't really deepen the low much, if any, before it moves
inland.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS
and HCCA models and is a little lower than the previous forecast at
48 h.  A 72-hour point is provided inland for continuity, but the
cyclone could dissipate before that time.


The depression is currently stationary in a region absent of
steering currents.  However, as a low- to mid-level trough moves
northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas in the coming
days, that feature should cause the depression to drift
northeastward and then northward, moving inland over southern Mexico
between 48-72 hours.  The new NHC forecast is slightly east of the
previous one, following the preponderance of the available guidance.


As noted before, there is lower-than-normal confidence in both the
track and intensity forecasts.  Changes to the forecast, as well as
modifications to the warned areas, could be required in subsequent
advisories if the location and size of the cyclone become clearer.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  15/0900Z 15.3N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 15.4N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 15.5N  99.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 15.8N  99.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 16.2N  99.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 16.9N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$
Forecaster Berg

图片:115437_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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颱風巨爵
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4楼#
发布于:2018-06-16 20:22
Carlotta環流袖珍,出乎意料在近岸徘徊,並稍為增強,數值模式的短期預報全軍覆沒。發佈員亦帶上了諷刺的口吻。

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

A surprise during the midnight shift. Tiny Carlotta is stronger and
is not moving as anticipated.

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is better organized
with a well defined cyclonically curved band wrapping around a
small area of convection near the center. T-numbers from TAFB,
SAB and UW/CIMSS are unanimously 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this
basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt.
ASCAT missed it this time.  Depending how long Carlotta remains
nearly stationary over water, some additional strengthening could
occur. Once it moves inland, if at all, rapid weakening is
anticipated.

The center is difficult to locate, but it has to be very
near the given position, since the cyclone has been meandering
during the past several hours. The track forecast is highly
uncertain and I mean highly uncertain. Deterministic runs of the
global models have failed miserably in forecasting the track of
Carlotta, at least in the very short term. In the earlier 00 UTC
guidance, most of the NHC trackers moved the cyclone northeastward.
However, at 06 UTC, most of the available trackers changed and now
move the cyclone toward the west-northwest along the coast of
Mexico. This shift in track also includes HCCA and HWRF models. The
GFS, ECMWF and UK models quickly dissipate Carlotta, so most of the
consensus are not available at 06 UTC.  Given the uncertainty in the
forecast, the NHC forecast calls for little motion in the next 12
hours, and then a gradual northward track toward the coast within
the warning area. Although this is a change from the previous NHC
forecast, it is not necessary a change in the warnings.

Despite the changes in track tonight, the impacts have not changed.
The main threat from Carlotta continues to be the heavy rainfall and
the associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.  The significant
rainfall threat is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow intersecting
the southern Sierra Madre mountains.  For details, please see
products issued by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 15.8N  99.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 16.0N  99.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 16.7N  99.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 17.5N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

图片:20180616.0939.f15.85rgb.04E.CARLOTTA.45kts.1000mb.15.8N.99.5W.090pc.jpg



图片:20180616.0900.goes15.ir.BD.04ECARLOTTA.45kts-1000mb.jpg



图片:aep04_2018061606_track_early.png

[颱風巨爵于2018-06-16 20:47编辑了帖子]
一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
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feidele
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5楼#
发布于:2018-06-17 02:10
如果爆发。阿卡普尔科将受到较大威胁
费德勒 伟大的运动员
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superstorm
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6楼#
发布于:2018-06-17 15:21
WTPN31 PHNC 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 010    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 99.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 99.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 17.0N 100.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 17.5N 100.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 18.0N 101.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
170400Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 99.8W.
TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1367 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z.
//
NNNN

图片:ep0418.gif



Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Carlotta has surprised us this evening.  Radar images from Acapulco,
Mexico, indicate that the storm has strengthened and its structure
has improved significantly.  The radar data indicate that Carlotta
has a well-defined, but tiny, inner core and the eye has been
contracting during the past few hours.  In addition, the radar
echoes in the eyewall has been getting stronger and more symmetric
around the eye.  The initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, in
agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Carlotta is very close to the coast of southern Mexico and, in
fact, the northern eyewall is partially onshore.  Since the
storm is expected to interact with land and is forecast to move
inland overnight or Sunday morning, it appears unlikely that
Carlotta will strengthen much more.  Once inland, fast weakening is
expected and Carlotta should dissipate over the high terrain of
Mexico Sunday night or early Monday.

The storm has moved more to the west than previous thought, likely
due to the influence of a narrow mid-level ridge to its north.  The
new forecast is adjusted well to the west of the previous one, and
is in fair agreement with the latest consensus models.

Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the threat of heavy
rainfall and potential of life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides continue over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.
The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow
over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico.  For details,
please see products issued by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 16.6N  99.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  18/0000Z 17.5N 100.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1200Z 18.0N 101.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:ItaVixg.gif



图片:Df2MWZBUwAAcsHn.png



雷达图像来源:Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico) Twitter

图片:20180616.2131.gpm.37hbt.04E.CARLOTTA.45kts.1000mb.16N.99.2W.060pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-06-18 13:54编辑了帖子]
以后去海南工作,那里才有大台风可以看
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newshidai2004
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发布于:2018-06-18 16:41

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 180237
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Visible satellite imagery indicates that Carlotta has maintained a
small but robust low-level circulation, with strong convection
bursting over and south of the well-defined center.  Satellite
intensity estimates are T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/33 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT.  Based on these data, the intensity is being
maintained at 25 kt and Carlotta is still classified as a tropical
cyclone.

The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 295/04 kt. The
recent development of deep convection has likely amplified the
vertical circulation, resulting in the forward motion being
slightly retarded by the north-northwesterly upper-level winds.
However, a stout ridge to the north of the small cyclone should keep
the system moving in a general west-northwestward direction just
offshore the coast of Mexico for the next day or so.

Pulsing convection with tops to near -80C has been occurring since
the previous advisory. However, vertical wind shear of around 15 kt
along with drier mid-level air coming in off of mainland Mexico are
expected to steadily weaken the system, resulting in degeneration
into a remnant low on Monday.

The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the
southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.
These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow
over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Consult products
issued by your national meteorological service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 17.2N 102.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 17.4N 102.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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