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[WP]吕宋以东97W - 18.3N 125.7E

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更多 发布于:2018-06-19 05:04
97W INVEST 180618 1800  13.1N  130.6E WPAC   15  1007

图片:20180618.2030.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.13.1N.130.6E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-06-21 14:56编辑了帖子]
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shadow
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1楼#
发布于:2018-06-19 12:29
ECMWF集成
一年之計在於春
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禾愛糖
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2楼#
发布于:2018-06-19 12:35
shadow锛欵CMWF集成鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
不知道EC集合支持的強度是怎樣?
昨晚12Z預報是進入南海仍然維持LPA
從前的我打倒今天的我。

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powerng
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发布于:2018-06-19 12:44
難道是hko所指不穩定天氣有關?
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MTWP
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发布于:2018-06-19 17:56

WP, 97, 2018061906,   , BEST,   0, 145N, 1294E,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  120,  30,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

TPPN11 PGTW 190908 A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (E OF PHILIPINES)
B. 19/0840Z
C. 14.89N
D. 129.02E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/0708Z  14.52N  129.48E  SSMS

   RICHARDSON
[MTWP于2018-06-19 19:12编辑了帖子]
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aaa86
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发布于:2018-06-19 19:29
無水氣支援, 對流缺乏
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MTWP
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6楼#
发布于:2018-06-20 00:46
SSD亦分析出T1.0
TXPQ28 KNES 191556
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)
B.  19/1430Z
C.  15.5N
D.  128.6E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. A
WELL-DEFINED CSC THAT LIES LESS THAN WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF PERSISTANT
CONVECTION GIVES A DT OF 1.0. BOTH THE MET AND THE PT AGREE WITH THE
DT. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...HOSLEY

图片:swir_lalo-animated.gif

[颱風巨爵于2018-06-20 01:29编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-06-20 01:22
ABPW10 PGTW 191700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191700Z-200600ZJUN2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.4N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION COVERING THE CENTER AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. PARTIAL
191254Z ASCAT AND 191233Z OSCAT IMAGES REVEAL PREDOMINANT 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VWS
AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. NO MODELS ARE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO LOW.//
NNNN

图片:8a4573f082025aaf7453f147f7edab64024f1aab.jpg

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-06-20 18:01编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-06-20 13:43
JTWC:取消评级!
ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZJUN2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7N
128.0E, IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
[让爱住我家于2018-06-20 13:44编辑了帖子]
“七子之歌·台湾” 我们是东海捧出的珍珠一串,琉球是我的群弟,我就是台湾。 我胸中还氤氲着郑氏的英魂,精忠的赤血点染了我的家传。 母亲,酷炎的夏日要晒死我了,赐我个号令,我还能背水一战。母亲!我要回来,母亲!
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