颱風巨爵
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[EP]东太平洋热带风暴“丹尼尔”(05E.Daniel) - 环流小巧,升格迅速,外海北上

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更多 发布于:2018-06-23 02:14
95E INVEST 180622 1800  12.0N  116.2W EPAC   20  1010

图片:20180622.1800.goes15.x.vis1km_high.95EINVEST.20kts-NAmb-120N-1162W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d2.png

图片:two_pac_5d2.png



2. A second broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 800
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity,
which has increased slightly in organization.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the disturbance moves toward the north or
north-northeast at about 5 mph over the open eastern North Pacific.
The system is expected to reach cooler waters early next week, which
will limit the potential for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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发布于:2018-06-23 19:31
似乎這個螺旋性較為明顯
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-06-23 21:11
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity.  Conditions may become more
conducive for development when a second weather system approaches
this disturbance from the east over the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle of next week well
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near an area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, but satellite
wind data indicate that the low's circulation remains somewhat
elongated.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development while the system moves northward over the next day
or two, and a tropical depression is likely to form before the
system reaches colder waters on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Berg

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d2.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d2.png

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发布于:2018-06-23 21:35
WTPN21 PHNC 231330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
 
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 115.8W TO 17.6N 116.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 115.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.5N 115.8W, APPROXIMATELY 458 NM SW OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER. A 230443Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT
THE DISTURBANCE WILL INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT
DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241330Z.//
 
NNNN

图片:TCFA.jpg

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发布于:2018-06-24 10:11
05E.FIVE 24 JUN 2018 0115Z

EP, 05, 2018062400,   , BEST,   0, 138N, 1155W,  30, 1007, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  220,  40,  40,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,       FIVE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, TRANSITIONED, epA52018 to ep052018,

图片:goes16_truecolor_05E_201806240006.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-06-24 17:54编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-06-24 11:09
Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Over the past several hours, the low pressure system located around
115W has developed a well-defined surface circulation.  The
convective pattern has also improved, with a primary band wrapping
around the western semicircle of the cyclone, and a secondary band
to the southeast and south.  The system has therefore been
designated as Tropical Depression Five-E with an initial intensity
of 30 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification.

Although the lack of deep convection in the northeast quadrant
suggests that some moderate easterly wind shear and dry air are
present, warm SSTs below the cyclone will likely support slight
slight strengthening for the next 24 to 36 hours.  The depression is
forecast to cross a sharp SST gradient and become embedded within a
far more stable environment on Monday. This should cause it to lose
all deep convection and gradually spin down as a remnant low through
the middle of next week.  The NHC forecast conservatively shows the
system as a tropical cyclone through 72 h, but it could become a
remnant low sooner than that.  The official intensity forecast is
very similar to the intensity consensus IVCN, and the model guidance
is in good agreement that only modest strengthening will occur over
the next day or two.

The depression has been moving generally northward and the initial
motion estimate is 355/8 kt.  The dynamical models are in good
agreement that the shallow cyclone will move continue moving
northward for the next 24-36 h, steered by a weak low to mid-level
cut-off low to its west.  After that time, the weakening system
should become increasingly steered by the low-level tradewind flow,
causing it to turn toward the around day 4.  The official forecast
lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and
closely follows the track consensus TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 14.3N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 15.6N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 17.4N 116.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 18.7N 117.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 19.5N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 20.3N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 20.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z 20.0N 129.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

图片:下載.png



图片:20180624_0300Z-rgb.gif

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发布于:2018-06-24 23:32

UW - CIMSS                    
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  24 JUN 2018    Time :   143000 UTC
      Lat :   15:55:58 N     Lon :  115:52:50 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.5 /1006.4mb/ 35.0kt
Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                2.5     2.6     2.6

 Center Temp : -49.0C    Cloud Region Temp : -42.9C

 Scene Type :
IRREGULAR CDO*

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC  
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF  
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF  

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii : N/A
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1011mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES15
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.8 degrees
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renzhetegong
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发布于:2018-06-24 23:56
命名
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 241441
TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

The cyclone has continued to maintain a small mass of deep
convection near the center during the past several hours, with the
low-level center under the convection. In addition, recent
microwave overpasses indicate that the system has developed a small
inner core.  Based on this and various satellite intensity estimates
of 35 kt, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Daniel.

The initial motion is now 350/9.  There is no change in the track
forecast philosophy.  The various dynamical models remain in good
agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side of a
mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-24 hours, causing the system to
move over cooler water and weaken.  The resulting more shallow
cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical
ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed
by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded
in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is
again an update of the previous track.

The forecast track brings the center of Daniel over sea surface
temperatures below 26C in less than 24 h, and this should cause
weakening even though the storm is in a light shear environment.
Thus, the intensity forecast continues the scenario of the
previous forecast by indicating a little more strengthening,
followed by steady weakening over the cooler water.  The latest
dynamical models are consistent in showing the system dissipating
faster than previously forecast, and the new forecast follows that
trend by showing dissipation after 96 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT  24/1500Z 16.0N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 17.2N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

图片:144411_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png


图片:05E.GIF

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发布于:2018-06-25 09:03
 05E DANIEL 180625 0000  17.5N  116.3W EPAC    40  1003

图片:WMBds52.png



TXPZ25 KNES 250024
TCSENP
A.  05E (DANIEL)
B.  25/0000Z
C.  17.7N
D.  116.4W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=2.0 MET=2.0 PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...FISHER

图片:vis0-lalo (2).gif

图片:bd0-lalo.gif

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发布于:2018-06-25 11:58
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:曹越男  签发:张 玲   2018 年  06 月  25 日  10 时
东北太平洋热带风暴“丹尼尔”生成
东北太平洋热带风暴“丹尼尔”(DANIEL)已于昨天(24日)夜间(北京时,下同)生成,其中心今天上午8点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西南方约910公里的海面上,就是北纬17.4度,西经116.4度,中心附近最大风力8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴),中心最低气压为1003百帕。

预计,“丹尼尔”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。

一生成就减弱??
SUPER TY FAN & C5 FAN
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