颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[EP]墨西哥西南热带风暴“艾米莉亚”(06E.Emilia) - 风切影响发展,东太六月第五个命名风暴

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更多 发布于:2018-06-25 23:00
EP, 96, 2018062512,   , BEST,   0,  80N,  960W,  20, 1009, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 008, SPAWNINVEST, ep782018 to ep962018,

图片:20180625.1500.goes15.x.vis1km_high.96EINVEST.20kts-1009mb-80N-960W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d2.png

图片:two_pac_5d2.png



2. Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located
about 500 miles south of eastern Mexico has become a little better
organized during the last 24 hours.  Environmental conditions are
expected to steadily become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the
system moves generally westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-07-02 13:48编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
  • 9914dan
    威望 3
    96E啊96E!
    06-26 02:20
  • 9914dan
    金钱 3
    96E啊96E!
    06-26 02:20
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一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
你知道我是誰
热带低压
热带低压
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1楼#
发布于:2018-06-25 23:43
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红豆棒冰冰
强热带风暴
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2楼#
发布于:2018-06-26 02:37
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Daniel, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Development of this system
is not expected before it merges with a low pressure area
approaching from the southeast in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located
about 600 miles south of eastern Mexico has become better organized
during the last 24 hours.   Additional development is forecast, and
a tropical depression is expected to form later this week while the
system moves generally west-northwestward, well south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. A tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean Sea should move into
the eastern Pacific tonight or Tuesday.  Gradual development of this
system is expected as it moves westward away from Central America,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d2.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d2.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-06-26 02:38编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
热带低压-GW
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3楼#
发布于:2018-06-26 09:51
WTPN21 PHNC 260200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.9N 95.5W TO 13.2N 103.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 97.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
97.0W, APPROXIMATELY 530NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260016Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOW FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 270200Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9618.gif

[炎煌深沉于2018-06-26 09:58编辑了帖子]
也甘愿赴汤蹈火去走它一遍~~
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zjk369
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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4楼#
发布于:2018-06-26 11:34

图片:96E_260200sair.jpg



图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png



1. Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located
about 650 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has continued
to increase today.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form within the next few days while the system moves
generally west-northwestward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-06-26 16:22编辑了帖子]
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renzhetegong
热带低压
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5楼#
发布于:2018-06-26 14:39
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Daniel, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad low
pressure area located about 600 miles south of Acapulco,Mexico, has
changed little over the past several hours.  However, environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A tropical wave located over Nicaragua and Costa Rica is expected
to move into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday night. Development is
anticipated as the system moves westward away from Central America,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png

[renzhetegong于2018-06-26 14:40编辑了帖子]
本人帖子若有错误请编辑修正
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炎煌深沉
热带低压-GW
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6楼#
发布于:2018-06-27 09:51
WTPN21 PHNC 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151Z JUN 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 101.5W TO 14.1N 110.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 103.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 97.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 103.0W, APPROXIMATELY
1550NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO NAVAL BASE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 262234Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A MORE DEFINED LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTPN21 PHNC 260200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 280200Z.//
NNNN

图片:96E_270200sair.jpg

图片:ep9618(1).gif

[炎煌深沉于2018-06-27 10:18编辑了帖子]
也甘愿赴汤蹈火去走它一遍~~
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红豆棒冰冰
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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7楼#
发布于:2018-06-27 16:55
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad low pressure area
located about 550 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to
gradually become better organized.  Further development is likely,
and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next day
or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward away
from Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the far eastern
Pacific Ocean, extending southward from El Salvador for several
hundred miles.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form well
south of the coast of Mexico by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-06-27 16:58编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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8楼#
发布于:2018-06-27 20:20
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 27 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad low pressure area
located about 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to
gradually become better organized.  Environmental conditions
support further development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form within the next day or so while the system moves generally
west-northwestward away from Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern
Pacific Ocean are associated with a westward-moving tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is expected to form well south of the coast of
Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-06-27 20:21编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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9楼#
发布于:2018-06-28 01:44
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 27 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that a low pressure area located about
600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is becoming better
defined, and environmental conditions support further development.
If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a
tropical depression later today or tonight while the system moves
generally west-northwestward away from Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern Pacific Ocean south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system over
the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form
well south of the coast of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


3. Yet another tropical wave is forecast to move into the far eastern
Pacific in a few days.  Environmental conditions should support
some development early next week south of Central America while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Blake

图片:two_pac_2d0(21).png


图片:two_pac_2d1(18).png


图片:two_pac_5d0(10).png


图片:two_pac_5d1(21).png


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-06-28 07:50编辑了帖子]
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