9914dan
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[EP]墨西哥西南二级飓风“法比奥”(07E.Fabio) - NHC:95KT

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更多 发布于:2018-06-28 13:28
97E INVEST 180628 0000   9.5N   94.0W EPAC   20  1009

图片:20180628.0600.goes15.x.ir1km_bw.97EINVEST.20kts-1009mb-95N-940W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png



1. A large area of cloudiness and showers south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development of this system over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is expected to form well south of the coast of
Mexico by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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炎煌深沉
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发布于:2018-06-29 07:32
WTPN21 PHNC 282330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6N 94.8W TO 10.3N 101.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 282200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 95.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 97.5W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 97.5W, APPROXIMATELY
1740 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 282058Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A CIRCULATION WITH SMALL CONVECTIVE BANDS BEGINNING TO
FORM AND CONVECTION COVERING THE CENTER. A 281613Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
A VERY BROAD, WEAK CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND BEGIN
TO INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292330Z.//
NNNN

图片:97E_282330sair.jpg

图片:ep9718.gif

[炎煌深沉于2018-06-29 07:45编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-06-30 07:49
WTPN21 PHNC 292330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/282321Z JUN 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 99.0W TO 13.1N 109.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 292300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 99.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 95.8W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 99.4W, APPROXIMATELY
1700 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 292154Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 282330).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302330Z.//
NNNN

图片:97E_292330sair.jpg

图片:ep9718.gif

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zjk369
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发布于:2018-07-01 06:03

图片:07E_301800sair.jpg

图片:ep0718 01.gif



熱帶低谷07E(七)警告#01
於30 / 2200Z發布
TC警告文本
WTPN32 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WARNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292321ZJUN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001    
  02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  301800Z --- NEAR 11.0N 103.8W
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 103.8W
   ---
  FORECASTS:
  12 HRS, VALID AT:
  010600Z --- 11.6N 106.2W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
   ---
  24 HRS, VALID AT:
  011800Z --- 12.2N 108.5W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
   ---
  36 HRS, VALID AT:
  020600Z --- 12.9N 110.6W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
   ---
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
  48 HRS, VALID AT:
  021800Z --- 13.5N 112.7W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
   ---
  72 HRS, VALID AT:
  031800Z --- 15.0N 117.0W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
   ---
  LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   ---
  96 HRS, VALID AT:
  041800Z --- 17.0N 122.0W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
   ---
  120 HRS, VALID AT:
  051800Z --- 19.5N 127.0W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 104.6W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1495 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z
AND 012200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES
REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 292330).//NNNN
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zjk369
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发布于:2018-07-01 15:17

TXPZ27 KNES 010619
TCSENP

A.  07E (NONAME)

B.  01/0600Z

C.  11.2N

D.  105.3W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H.  REMARKS...POSITION BASED IN PART ON 0416Z METOP-A DATA WHICH SHOWED
AN EXPOSED CENTER TO THE EAST OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS SUGGESTS
AROUND 10 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM. CENTER IS
LESS THAN 1/3 DEGREE INTO THE COLD OVERCAST, WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF
3.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. PT AGREES. MET IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE CENTER LOCATION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    01/0416Z 11.2N 105.0W AMSU

...TURK

图片:2018EP07_4KMIRIMG_201807010600.gif



图片:2018EP07_4KMSRBDC_201807010600.jpg



Tropical Storm FABIO
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 01, 2018:
Location: 11.4°N 105.8°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
[9914dan于2018-07-01 18:41编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-07-01 16:01
墨西哥以南热带风暴“法比奥”(07E.Fabio) - 默默发展,主戏来临前的开胃菜
這盤法比奧牌開胃菜已燒好,請細細品嘗
Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with
Tropical Depression Seven-E has become better organized, with very
cold cloud tops near and west of the center along with a large area
of outer banding.  A recent GMI overpass suggests that the system
has not yet developed a tight inner core.  However, the various
satellite intensity estimates are now 35-45 kt.  Thus, the cyclone
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fabio with a possibly conservative
initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion is 285/11.  The track guidance is in good
agreement that Fabio should move west-northwestward on the
southwest side of the subtropical ridge for the next several days,
with a turn toward the northwest near the end of the forecast
period.  There has been little change in the guidance since the
previous advisory, so the new forecast track is an update of the
previous forecast that lies near or just north of the model
consensus.

Fabio should be over warm water and in an environment of light
vertical wind shear for the next 72 h or so, and steady to rapid
strengthening is expected during that time.  There remains some
spread in the guidance, with the HWRF model continuing to show less
intensification than the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM
models.  The new intensity forecast will again trend above that of
the previous forecast, with steady strengthening during the first 24
h followed by rapid strengthening from 24-48 h.  It should be noted
that the forecast intensities through 72 h are lower than the SHIPS
and LGEM models, and they are in best overall agreement with the
HCCA consensus model.  After 72 h, Fabio should move over steadily
decreasing sea surface temperatures and weaken quickly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 11.6N 106.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 12.0N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 12.7N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 13.3N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 14.0N 114.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 15.5N 119.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 21.0N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

图片:07E_intensity_06z.png




图片:rgb-animated.gif



图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif

[9914dan于2018-07-02 01:38编辑了帖子]
世界上并不缺少美,而是缺少發現美的眼睛
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发布于:2018-07-02 00:31
JTWC 上望MH(110kts)
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发布于:2018-07-02 15:04
TXPZ27 KNES 020620
TCSENP
A.  07E (FABIO)
B.  02/0600Z
C.  12.4N
D.  109.9W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...CURVED BROKEN BANDING WRAPS 1.0 FOR DT=3.5. MET AND
PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    02/0044Z 12.0N 109.0W SSMIS
...VELASCO

图片:QQ图片20180702150448.gif

[renzhetegong于2018-07-02 15:10编辑了帖子]
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9914dan
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发布于:2018-07-03 02:23
WTPZ42 KNHC 021447
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
900 AM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Fabio's cloud pattern has improved somewhat since the previous
advisory and early light visible satellite images show a
well-defined curved band that wraps around the center.  Recent
microwave images have shown some mixed signals regarding the
structure of the inner core.  A 1028 UTC SSMI microwave overpass
showed a well-defined low-level structure but the system was tilted
with most of the deep convective banding located to the southeast of
the center.  A subsequent 1147 UTC SSMIS pass showed similar
structure, but a more recent 1321 UTC SSMIS overpass shows the
formation of mid-level eye with a tighter inner-core. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates were 55 to 65 kt from SAB and TAFB, and
objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are 65 kt.  Based on the recent
improvement in structure, the initial intensity has been raised to
65 kt, making Fabio the third hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin
during the 2018 hurricane season.

Although Fabio has strengthened and become a hurricane, it has not
strengthened as rapidly as expected.  This was likely due to the
lack of inner core organization and the entrainment of some
mid-level dry air as noted in previous discussions.  Now that the
inner core structure has improved and the hurricane is forecast to
remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment, a faster
rate of intensification is anticipated during the next 24 to 36 h,
and Fabio is still forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.
By early Wednesday, the hurricane is forecast to reach cooler waters
and less favorable thermodynamic conditions which should result in
rapid weakening.  Fabio is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low by day 5.

The cyclone has moved a little slower than expected over the past 24
hours and the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt.  Fabio is
forecast to move west-northwestward at a faster forward speed
to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from
northern Mexico.  The track guidance is in very good agreement and
the NHC forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 12.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 13.7N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 14.7N 114.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 15.8N 117.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 17.0N 120.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.6N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 25.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

图片:144856_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png



图片:QQ20180702-2.jpg



图片:QQ20180702-1.jpg



图片:rgb-animated.gif



图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif



图片:goes16_vis-swir_07E_201807021805.jpg




本来还期望能赶在6月末成旋的。结构因风切/干空气而改善迟缓,NHC还是很信任的报出RI过程,估计有受到今年前两个飓风快速增强的影响,可时间真的不等人哦
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renzhetegong
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发布于:2018-07-03 14:39

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NHC:80KT

07E FABIO 180703 0600 14.8N 113.9W EPAC 80 977
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