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[WP]1807号热带气旋“派比安”(09W.Prapiroon)机构发报专帖

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更多 发布于:2018-06-28 16:17
1807号热带气旋“派比安”机构发报指引
6月28日:
JMA   12   15   18   21
CMA  12   18   21
HKO  18
JTWC  TCFA   12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

6月29日:
JMA   00(命名)   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   06   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

6月30日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月1日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月2日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   09   12   15   18   21
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月3日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   06   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月4日:
JMA   00   03   06(变性温带气旋)
CMA  00   06   09(停编)
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)
KMA  00   03   06   09
CWB  00
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12(Final Warning)

图片:wp902018.20180628080341.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 280830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.9N 132.9E TO 24.8N 127.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 132.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6N
132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE
SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL FLARING CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST.
A 280546Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE SAME BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION
AND THE IMPROVED SYMMETRY IN THE LLCC. VWS REMAINS LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN WARM (28-29C) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL REACH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARDS OKINAWA,
WITH SOME VARIATION IN TIMING. NAVGEM, GFS, AND UKMET ALL SHOW 90W
BECOMING A TD WITHIN 24HRS, WITH THE ECMWF AND JGSM FOLLOWING
SHORTLY AFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290830Z.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-06-28 21:07
JMA/TD-a/06-28 12Z

图片:a-00.png


熱帯低気圧
平成30年06月28日22時10分 発表

<28日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 19度50分(19.8度)
東経 131度25分(131.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<29日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 沖縄の南
予報円の中心 北緯 21度10分(21.2度)
東経 129度30分(129.5度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
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Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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炎煌深沉
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2楼#
发布于:2018-06-28 21:56
CMA/TD05/06-28 12Z
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 281200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 05 INITIAL TIME 281200 UTC
00HR 19.6N 131.3E 1004HPA 15M/S
MOVE NNW 10KM/H
P+24HR 21.2N 129.9E 998HPA 18M/S=
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180628200000017 (1).jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-06-28 22:03编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-06-28 23:00
JTWC/09W/#01/06-28 12Z
WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 131.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 131.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 21.1N 130.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 22.1N 129.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 23.5N 128.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 25.6N 127.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 31.3N 127.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 37.2N 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 131.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp092018.20180628144421.gif

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4楼#
发布于:2018-06-28 23:10
JTWC/09W/#01/06-28 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 281326Z GMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T1.0 (25
KNOTS) FROM RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 09W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH MODERATE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, RANGING BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 09W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 09W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH TAU 24, THE TRACK WILL THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWARD. TD 09W WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEADY INTENSIFICATION. TD 09W WILL
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND
THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, SPECIFICALLY
WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 09W WILL INTERACT WITH A FAST MOVING WEST TO
EAST TROUGH AND WILL CAUSE TD 09W TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE KOREAN PENINSULA AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 72. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE
COMPLETE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
REGARDING TRACK SPEED. THERE IS ALSO A WIDE VARIATION IN THE
INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THEREFORE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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红豆棒冰冰
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5楼#
发布于:2018-06-29 00:15
JMA/TD-a/06-28 15Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年06月29日01時05分 発表

<29日00時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 19度50分(19.8度)
東経 131度05分(131.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<30日00時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 沖縄の南
予報円の中心 北緯 21度25分(21.4度)
東経 129度25分(129.4度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

图片:a-00.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-06-29 00:17编辑了帖子]
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台风大师
热带低压
热带低压
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6楼#
发布于:2018-06-29 02:36
CMA/TD05/06-28 18Z
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 281800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 05 INITIAL TIME 281800 UTC
00HR 19.9N 130.8E 1004HPA 15M/S
MOVE NNW 8KM/H
P+12HR 20.5N 130.2E 1004HPA 15M/S
P+24HR 21.3N 129.6E 998HPA 18M/S=
NNNN
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MTWP
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7楼#
发布于:2018-06-29 05:20
JTWC/09W/#02/06-28 18Z

图片:wp0918.png


WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 130.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 130.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 20.0N 130.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 20.9N 129.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 22.3N 128.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 24.6N 127.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 31.9N 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 39.6N 129.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 130.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 442 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND
292100Z.//
NNNN
[iam最小值于2018-06-29 09:33编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-06-29 05:31
JTWC/09W/#02/06-28 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 442 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COVERED BY FLARING CONVECTION
AND BANDING PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS HEDGED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE PGTW AND THE RJTD 18Z FIX
POSITIONS, AS THE LLC IS COVERED. A 281817Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SUPPORTS THE GENERAL REGION OF THE INITIAL POSITION UNDER THE
CONVECTION. A 281209Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, LENDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE 281209Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25-29 KT WIND BARBS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE 30 KT INITIAL INTENSITY AGREES WITH THE PGTW 18Z
CURRENT INTENSITY OF T2.0 (30 KTS), AND IS ABOVE THE RJTD CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OT T1.5 (25 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TD 09W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15
KNOTS) ALONG WITH EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, RANGING BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TD 09W HAS RECENTLY JOGGED TO THE SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION IS LOW DUE TO THE CDO COVERING
THE LLCC AND THE ELONGATED LLC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 09W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN THE
TRACK WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWARD AFTER IT HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE.
THOUGH THERE IS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH, TD 09W IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM.  TD 09W WILL REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48, AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS BEGIN
ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WIND RADII ARE
FORECAST TO BE ASYMMETRIC, WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE EASTERN
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
PREDICTED FORWARD MOTION BETWEEN MODELS, WITH ECMWF AND EGRR MORE
ACCURATELY REFLECTING THE OBSERVED WESTWARD JOG IN RECENT POSITIONS
AND A SLOWER PROPAGATION SPEED, WHILE NAVGEM AND COTC PROPAGATE 09W
MUCH FASTER TO THE NORTH. GFS IS A WESTWARD OUTLIER. THEREFORE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 09W WILL INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE KOREAN PENINSULA AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 72. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
REGARDING TRACK SPEED, EAST-WEST TRACK SPREAD, THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF
FRONTAL NATURE AND WIND FIELD EXPANSION OF TD 09W WHEN IT
TRANSITIONS. AS TD 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVERLAND KOREA BETWEEN
TAU 72-96, IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-06-29 05:35
JMA/TD-a/06-28 18Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年06月29日04時05分 発表
 
<29日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 19度55分(19.9度)
 東経 130度50分(130.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
 
<30日03時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 沖縄の南
予報円の中心 北緯 21度25分(21.4度)
 東経 129度25分(129.4度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

图片:a-00.png

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