9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2009-06-25
  • 最后登录2019-06-14
  • 粉丝154
  • 关注63
  • 发帖数2565
  • 来自
阅读:8979回复:47

南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖(2018年7月-2019年6月)

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-06-29 00:27
1、为了方便管理和页面整洁,台风论坛继续坚持一扰动一追击帖的老规矩,在南半球无扰动下请在本帖跟帖讨论。违者:删除或合并。
2、当NRL升格扰动后,会员可重新开新的追击。
3、因EC网站更新,本帖无法提供即时更新的EC预报产品,请前往各数值产品服务网站查询。
注:从2015年起,为与南半球风季相适应,南半球数值预报讨论帖改为每年的7月1日至次年的6月30日,每年一帖,开帖规则同其他数值预报讨论帖。
4、南半球各海域监管机构
【MFR】http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours
MFR主管90E以西的南印度洋。
【BoM】http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/
BoM主管澳洲附近海域。
【FMS】http://www.met.gov.fj/
FMS主管西南太平洋大部。
【MetService】http://www.metservice.com/national/home
新西兰MetService主管部分南太平洋海域。


南印度洋扰动位置直观图

西南太平洋扰动位置直观图

各范围红外光卫星云图:
东半球


印度洋

涡度图





[9914dan于2018-06-29 00:39编辑了帖子]
喜欢4 评分0
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2019-06-18
  • 粉丝457
  • 关注37
  • 发帖数18138
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2018-10-05 23:57
MFR提及莫桑比克海峡南侧的暖隔离,但目前不预期会转成副热带低压。

Warm seclusion over the Southern part of the Mozambique channel :
Baroclinic processes have formed a LLCC centred near 27.6S/39.6E at 0900Z. Maximum winds are estimated at 30/35 kt and minimal pressure at 1004 hPa. The LLCC appears like a warm seclusion with a warm front over the southern quadrant. The LLCC is forecasted to move northeastward and fill up as it goes along the southwest coastlines of Madagascar. No tropical transition is expected due to the strong western vertical windshear associated to the subtropical jetstream.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
zjk369
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2012-08-19
  • 最后登录2019-06-08
  • 粉丝38
  • 关注3
  • 发帖数304
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2018-10-29 11:03
北印度洋有氣旋風暴不久後生成

图片:irnm5kml.GIF


回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
zjk369
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2012-08-19
  • 最后登录2019-06-08
  • 粉丝38
  • 关注3
  • 发帖数304
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2018-11-02 15:43
93S左邊雲團很快成為94S

图片:irnm5kml.GIF


回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
933954
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2013-12-07
  • 最后登录2019-06-18
  • 粉丝50
  • 关注27
  • 发帖数944
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2018-11-30 19:12
可能有98P

 LOW L [1009HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 08.0S 179.0E AT 300600UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR.

图片:98P雏形.gif

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-06-18
  • 粉丝78
  • 关注82
  • 发帖数2967
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2018-12-26 20:31
GFS连续数报报出南太三旋共舞

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_swpac_27.png


图片:gfs_mslp_wind_swpac_28.png

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-06-18
  • 粉丝78
  • 关注82
  • 发帖数2967
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2018-12-29 05:35
SSD编了一个南印的扰动,大致位置在扰动93S以西
TXXS26 KNES 281800
TCSSIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
B. 28/1730Z
C. 10.8S
D. 118.0E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. POSITION BASED ON MID LEVEL CENTER AS MOST RECENT ASCAT DID NOT
REVEALED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING
RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
 NIL
...TURK
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-06-18
  • 粉丝78
  • 关注82
  • 发帖数2967
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2019-01-10 07:53
ECMWF连续数报报出西澳猛货,但GFS反应不大

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_aus_10.png

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
POCKETBOX
热带低压-GW
热带低压-GW
  • 注册日期2018-07-28
  • 最后登录2019-04-09
  • 粉丝2
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数95
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2019-01-10 20:11
BOM编了一个11U
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 10 January 2019
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 13 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are currently no significant lows in the region. A weak tropical low is
expected to form over the northern Top End later on the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
                                   Friday: Very Low.
                                   Saturday: Very Low.
                                   Sunday: Very Low.
The tropical low is expected to move into the Timor Sea by about Monday, with a
reasonable chance of further development into next week as it continues to move
west into the Indian Ocean.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Low:          5% to 20%
Moderate:     20 to 50%                    High:         Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 10 January 2019
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 13 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no tropical lows in the Western Region and none are expected to
develop in the next three days.
A tropical low (11U) is likely to develop within a deepening trough over the
western Top End of the Northern Territory or adjacent waters on Saturday or
Sunday. This low is then forecast to gradually shift west over the Timor Sea
either late in the weekend or early next week. It is expected that a tropical
low that develops in this area will track west to southwest into the Western
Region, and could develop into a tropical cyclone north of WA next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Friday: Very Low
                                   Saturday: Very Low
                                   Sunday: Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Low:          5% to 20%
Moderate:     20 to 50%                    High:         Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2019-06-18
  • 粉丝78
  • 关注82
  • 发帖数2967
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2019-01-11 01:48
(动图)GFS新报报出莫桑比克海峡内一爆发增强系统,中心气压达938mb

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_safr_fh156-288.gif

最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部