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[WP]1808号热带气旋“玛莉亚”(10W.Maria)机构发报专帖

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更多 发布于:2018-07-02 10:00

图片:wp9118.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 148.6E TO 12.6N 144.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 147.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 012336Z
MHS 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG WESTERLY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN
ELONGATED, FORMATIVE LLCC. A 011101Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS AND 10 TO 15
KNOT WESTERLY WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DUAL
OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 18N 160E,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD GUAM WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO SHOW VIGOROUS EASTERLY, CONVERGENT FLOW, WHICH MAY FUEL
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND TRACKS NEAR THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030300Z.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-07-03 07:02
JTWC/10W/#01/07-02 18Z
WTPN32 PGTW 022100

图片:wp1018.png


MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI/020251JUL2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 9.9N 146.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 146.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 10.5N 145.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 11.3N 144.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 12.1N 143.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 13.0N 142.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.2N 141.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 17.6N 140.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 20.7N 138.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 145.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 020300).//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-07-03 07:03
JTWC/10W/#01/07-02 18Z Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH IMPROVING LOW
LEVEL BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 021836Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE
IMPROVED BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 10W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). TD 10W IS ALSO DEVELOPING STRONG POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TD 10W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE SEA OF
JAPAN WILL BEING TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW FOR TD 10W TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND NAVGEM MODELS HAVE THE STR
REMAINING WEAK AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, ALLOWING TD 10W TO TRACK MORE
TOWARDS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF BUILDS THE STR AND ALLOWS FOR A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT TD 10W
WILL DEVELOP INTO A TYPHOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK IS HEDGED TO THE WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 10W WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SAME TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS,
NAVGEM AND ECMWF REMAIN DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE TRACK. HOWEVER, ALL
MODELS STILL AGREE THAT TD 10W WILL BE AT TYPHOON STRENGTH. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY REGARDING
TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH REMAINS HEDGED TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-07-03 10:40
JTWC/10W/#02/07-03 00Z
WTPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 10.4N 145.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 145.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 11.2N 145.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 12.0N 144.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 12.9N 143.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 14.0N 142.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 16.0N 141.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 18.9N 140.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 22.1N 137.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 145.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z,
032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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4楼#
发布于:2018-07-03 11:15
JTWC/10W/#02/07-03 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
WHICH CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 030016Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
BROAD CIRCULATION WHICH IS STILL CONSOLIDATING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A FEW 25 KNOT WIND BARBS SEEN IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE AND A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 10W IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). TD 10W
IS ALSO DEVELOPING STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TD 10W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE TRACK HAS
SHIFTED CLOSER TO GUAM WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.
   B. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL BEING TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW FOR TD 10W TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. TD 10W IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING.
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 30 THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN S-SHAPED TRACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST. GFS FAVORS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WHILE THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAVORS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK IS STILL
HEDGED TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY TOWARDS
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 10W WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SAME TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS, NAVGEM AND ECMWF REMAIN DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS STILL AGREE THAT TD 10W WILL BE AT TYPHOON
STRENGTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY REGARDING
TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH REMAINS HEDGED TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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5楼#
发布于:2018-07-03 15:20
JMA/TD-b/07-03 06Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年07月03日16時20分 発表

<03日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 10度00分(10.0度)
東経 147度35分(147.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<04日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 11度30分(11.5度)
東経 147度00分(147.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:030600b-00.png

[327于2018-07-03 15:30编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-07-03 16:10
JTWC/10W/#03/07-03 06Z
WTPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003A RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 11.1N 147.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 147.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 11.9N 146.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 13.0N 146.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 13.9N 145.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.2N 143.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 17.3N 142.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 19.9N 141.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 23.0N 138.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 147.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM SOUTHEAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp102018.20180703080521.gif

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热带低压-GW
热带低压-GW
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7楼#
发布于:2018-07-03 16:58
JTWC/10W/#03/07-03 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 03A RELOCATED//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. ANIMATED WV
IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD CHANNEL
TAPPING INTO A TUTT CELL ANCHORED NEAR 20N 160E. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A DEFINED
NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 030545Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT, IN ADDITION
TO THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, TD 10W IS UNDER FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE AT
29 TO 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
   A. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM TO THE ENE
FROM THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. AS A RESULT, CPA TO GUAM IS CLOSER AND
NOW FROM THE NORTHEAST SIDE. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 10W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS. MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES
PASSING WEST TO EAST, NORTH OF 20N, WILL INVARIABLY AND SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN THE STR CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
OTHERWISE, THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 72, TD 10W WILL REACH 80
KNOTS AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AND STEADY, POSSIBLY RAPID, INTENSIFICATION AS OUTFLOW, VWS, AND
ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH
AT LEAST 100 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING SPREAD, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INITIAL
FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[炎煌深沉于2018-07-03 17:28编辑了帖子]
也甘愿赴汤蹈火去走它一遍~~
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8楼#
发布于:2018-07-03 17:30
JTWC/10W/#03A/07-03 06Z RELOCATED
WTPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003A RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 11.1N 148.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 148.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 11.9N 148.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 13.0N 147.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 14.0N 146.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.1N 145.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 17.3N 143.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 19.7N 142.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 22.3N 140.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 148.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM SOUTHEAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp102018.20180703085435.gif

[327于2018-07-03 17:40编辑了帖子]
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强台风
强台风
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发布于:2018-07-03 20:00
JMA/TD-b/07-03 09Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年07月03日19時05分 発表

<03日18時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 10度00分(10.0度)
東経 147度35分(147.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<04日18時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 11度30分(11.5度)
東経 147度00分(147.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:030900b-00.png

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