颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[值得关注]东海1810号强热带风暴“安比”(12W.Ampil) - 剑指江浙沪 - CMA:黄警

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更多 发布于:2018-07-12 01:45
焦點雲圖




編擾資訊

WP, 94, 2018071118,   , BEST,   0, 115N, 1340E,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:20180711.1720.himawari-8.ir.94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11.5N.134E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-07-21 12:42编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +5 威望 +5
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一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
hnwfnhee
超强台风
超强台风
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1楼#
发布于:2018-07-12 07:45
这个难道是ec的那个庞大的西太tc?
来自温岭偏僻农村的野夫
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冷静的孤独
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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2楼#
发布于:2018-07-12 09:41
有图不?
来自台风之州,渴望台风
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hnwfnhee
超强台风
超强台风
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3楼#
发布于:2018-07-12 10:04
冷静的孤独锛氂型疾?鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
手机貌似无法发图
来自温岭偏僻农村的野夫
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327
327
强台风
强台风
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4楼#
发布于:2018-07-12 10:45
hnwfnhee锛氄飧瞿训朗莈c的那个庞大的西太tc?鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
ECMWF庞大西太TC似乎与94W没有关系,而是92W发展六七天后通过巴士海峡东侧新生成系统
92W与94W目前定位接近,ECMWF预报两者将用三四天时间整合为一个系统并成台
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歆中思语
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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5楼#
发布于:2018-07-12 12:17
327锛欵CMWF庞大西太TC似乎与94W没有关系,而是92W发展六七天后通过巴士海峡东侧新生成系统
92W与94W目前定位接近,ECMWF预报两者将用三四天时间整合为一个系统并成台
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
涡度连成一起,ec也是这样预测合并发展,是这样的
没有风的日子,我的世界一片沉寂。没有你的岁月,我的生活一片死灰。
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327
327
强台风
强台风
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6楼#
发布于:2018-07-12 16:30
JMA:LPA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 11N 135E NW SLOWLY.

图片:18071215.png

[327于2018-07-12 16:40编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
热带低压-GW
热带低压-GW
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7楼#
发布于:2018-07-13 07:44
ABPW10 PGTW 122130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/122130Z-130600ZJUL2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY
410 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 121757Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION TO THE EAST. A
121217Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGHING WITH
PRIMARILY 10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 15-25 KNOT WIND BARBS
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 CELSIUS).
92W IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE
FEATURE TO THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF LUZON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N
132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121759Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GENERALIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 121316Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 15-20
KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). 94W IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF
THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
EASTWARD, EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE LATER TAUS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE FEATURE, AS SHOWN IN GFS AND ECMWF. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS A LOW//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

也甘愿赴汤蹈火去走它一遍~~
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327
327
强台风
强台风
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8楼#
发布于:2018-07-13 13:30
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 130049Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED JUST OFFSET OF
THE CENTER, TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). 94W IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE
FEATURE TO THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE EAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD, EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE IN THE LATER TAUS, AS SHOWN IN GFS AND ECMWF. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL HAVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST 92W.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:20180713.0049.metopa.89h.94W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.9.7N.133.1E.090pc.jpg

图片:20180713.0050.mta.ASCAT.wind.94W.INVEST.15kts-1007mb.97N.1331E.25km.jpg

图片:130500abpwsair.jpg

[327于2018-07-13 15:00编辑了帖子]
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327
327
强台风
强台风
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9楼#
发布于:2018-07-13 14:00
GFS 2018071300

图片:gfs_mslp_uv850_ea_fh0-384.gif

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