[WP]1812号台风“云雀”(15W.Jongdari) - 一生与冷涡藤原，路径奇异多变，高纬西折横扫西日本，东海二度打转，闯进杭州湾，终登上海 - JMA:75KT JTWC:95KT

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 180002Z MHS METOP-A
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
SEVERAL 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) WILL AID FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS EXPRESS THAT 96W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, SKIRTING GUAM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.

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(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 146.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY
180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION
AND LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO APPEAR. A 210042Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE,
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MODELS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST
BEFORE HEADING NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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WTPN22 PGTW 211300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210721Z JUL 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 140.8E TO 17.2N 137.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 140.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 141.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 140.5E, APPROXIMATELY
190 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A 210837Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER AND SHALLOW
CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE,
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT
TRACK THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE, SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHWESTERN OR
NORTHWESTERN TRACK, WITH A FEW OUTLIERS TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 105.6E.//
NNNN

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看起来一东一西有两个中心，不知道会不会分开独自发展

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newshidai2004锛歐TPQ20 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 19.0N 120.8E FAIR
MOVE ENE 09KT
...鍥炲埌鍘熷笘

你肯定是96W

楼上发错地方了

還是這個才是悟空?