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[WP]1812号台风“云雀”(15W.Jongdari) - 一生与冷涡藤原吞并,路径奇异多变,高纬西折横扫西日本,东海二度打转,闯进杭州湾,终登上海 - JTWC:95KT96W INVEST 180719 1200 11.0N 149.0E WPAC 15 0
图片:20180719.1650.himawari-8.ir.96W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.11N.149E.100pc.jpg ![]() [tcfa_gw于2018-11-17 19:13编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2018-07-20 14:45
JTWC:LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 180002Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) WILL AID FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS EXPRESS THAT 96W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, SKIRTING GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 图片:200500abpwsair.jpg ![]() |
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2楼#
发布于:2018-07-20 17:00
JMA:LPA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
图片:18072015.png ![]() [327于2018-07-20 17:10编辑了帖子]
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3楼#
发布于:2018-07-21 14:10
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 146.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO APPEAR. A 210042Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MODELS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST BEFORE HEADING NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. 图片:210500abpwsair.jpg ![]() |
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4楼#
发布于:2018-07-21 21:08
JTWC-TCFA
WTPN22 PGTW 211300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210721Z JUL 18// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210730)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 140.8E TO 17.2N 137.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 140.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 141.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 140.5E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A 210837Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER AND SHALLOW CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT TRACK THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE, SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHWESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN TRACK, WITH A FEW OUTLIERS TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 221300Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 105.6E.// NNNN 图片:wp9618.gif ![]() 图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif ![]() 图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif ![]() [颱風巨爵于2018-07-22 02:28编辑了帖子]
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5楼#
发布于:2018-07-21 21:13
看起来一东一西有两个中心,不知道会不会分开独自发展
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6楼#
发布于:2018-07-21 21:17
图片:rbtop0.gif ![]() [newshidai2004于2018-07-21 21:27编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于:2018-07-21 21:20
newshidai2004锛歐TPQ20 RJTD 211200你肯定是96W |
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8楼#
发布于:2018-07-21 21:20
楼上发错地方了
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9楼#
发布于:2018-07-21 21:23
還是這個才是悟空?
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