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[WP]13W(TD08)机构发报专帖

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更多 发布于:2018-07-21 00:25
13W(TD08)机构发报指引
7月20日:
JTWC  TCFA   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月21日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
HKO  03   06   09   12   21
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月22日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
HKO  00   03   06   09   12   15   21
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月23日:
JMA   00
CMA  00
         台风蓝色预警(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(11:00)
HKO  00   03(降格低压区)
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12(Final Warning)

WTPN21 PGTW 201630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.4N 116.1E TO 19.6N 122.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3N 116.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.5N 115.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 116.5E APPROXIMATELY
335NM SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC BELOW DEEPENING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL
FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VWS AND STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (28-30
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LUZON IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH SOME SPREAD IN HOW
SOON AND HOW SHARPLY IT WILL TURN TO THE NORTH. THE UKMO IS THE MAIN
OUTLIER, TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL LUZON AND TURNING NORTH
SOON AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211630Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp9818.png

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    2018-07-21 01:14
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    2018-07-21 01:14
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1楼#
发布于:2018-07-21 08:30
JTWC/13W/#01/07-20 18Z
WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201621ZJUL2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 117.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 117.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 18.1N 119.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 19.4N 121.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 21.5N 122.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 23.5N 123.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 27.0N 122.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 30.8N 118.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 32.5N 116.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 117.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 291 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z,
211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 201630).//
NNNN

图片:wp132018.20180720201035.gif

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2楼#
发布于:2018-07-21 08:30
JTWC/13W/#01/07-20 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
291 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND
TO THE EAST. A 201353Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CLEAR LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH,
EAST, AND SOUTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS
AND THE 201800Z PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25
KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR TD 13W ARE FAVORABLE, WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS (29-30C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE EAST
BY THE REVERSE-ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS, TD 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FOLLOWING THE MONSOON TROUGH, GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INTENSIFYING TO 65 KNOTS AS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. BEYOND
TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER JAPAN WILL TAKE OVER
STEERING AND TURN THE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
OVERALL MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK WITH THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INTENSIFYING THE CYCLONE MORE AND TRACKING IT MORE
TO THE WEST THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE FORECAST TRACK MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE MESOSCALE MODELS. BASED ON THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR OVER JAPAN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER 13W
TO THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING IT ASHORE OVER CHINA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND
96 AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BEFORE DISSIPATING IT OVER LAND BY TAU
120. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY, LENDING TO LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST.
NNNN
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发布于:2018-07-21 09:09
JMA/TD-a/07-21 00Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年07月21日10時05分 発表

<21日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        南シナ海
中心位置        北緯 18度10分(18.2度)
東経 118度50分(118.8度)
進行方向、速さ        東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<22日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        バシー海峡
予報円の中心        北緯 20度35分(20.6度)
東経 121度55分(121.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:210000a-00.png

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发布于:2018-07-21 10:04
CMA/TD08/07-21 00Z
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 210000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 08 INITIAL TIME 210000 UTC
00HR 18.2N 118.8E 998HPA 15M/S
MOVE ENE 16KM/H
P+06HR 18.5N 119.6E 998HPA 15M/S
P+12HR 18.9N 120.4E 998HPA 15M/S
P+18HR 19.7N 121.7E 995HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 20.7N 122.8E 995HPA 18M/S=
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180721080000023.jpg

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  • 9914dan
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发布于:2018-07-21 10:50
JTWC/13W/#02/07-21 00Z
WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 17.8N 118.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 118.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 18.6N 120.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 20.3N 121.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 22.3N 123.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 24.2N 123.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 27.8N 121.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 30.6N 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 33.5N 116.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 118.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND
220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp132018.20180721024358.gif

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发布于:2018-07-21 11:10
CMA/TD08/台风公报/07-21 10:00
台 风 公 报
预报:张东  签发:高栓柱   2018 年  07 月  21 日  10 时
南海东北部热带低压生成
一、南海东北部热带低压生成

南海东北部热带低压于今天(21日)上午生成,上午8点钟其中心位于台湾省鹅銮鼻南偏西方向约465公里的南海东北部海面上,就是北纬18.2度、东经118.8度,中心附近最大风力7级(15米/秒),中心最低气压998百帕。

二、热带低压将向东偏北方向移动

预计,热带低压中心将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东偏北方向移动,将于今天下午进入巴士海峡,强度逐渐加强,有可能于24小时内加强为台风(热带风暴级)。

大风预报:21日14时-22日14时,南海南部海域、南海东北部海域、巴士海峡有6-8级大风。

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180721080000023.jpg

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  • 9914dan
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发布于:2018-07-21 11:11
JTWC/13W/#02/07-21 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION STARTING TO APPEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SUSTAINED CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 202257Z SSMIS 91 GHZ CONFIRMS THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND INDICATES THE BANDING TO THE SOUTH IS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
210000Z PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS).
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR TD 13W ARE FAVORABLE, WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS (29-30C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD IN THE
REVERSE-ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE BUT THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER PEAK INTENSITIES IN THE MESOSCALE
MODELS.
   B. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND BEGIN TURNING TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 36. DURING THIS PERIOD,
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AS
IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. BEYOND TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR, NEARING LANDFALL IN
CHINA BY TAU 72. THE MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT TD
13W WILL BE A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
INTENSITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LIMITED FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR OVER JAPAN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER 13W
TO THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING IT ASHORE OVER CHINA JUST AFTER TAU 72
AS A 30 KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 96. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, THE
LIMITED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LENDING TO
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-07-21 12:10
JMA/TD-a/07-21 03Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年07月21日13時00分 発表

<21日12時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        南シナ海
中心位置        北緯 18度10分(18.2度)
東経 119度00分(119.0度)
進行方向、速さ        東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<22日12時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        バシー海峡
予報円の中心        北緯 21度00分(21.0度)
東経 122度05分(122.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:210300a-00.png

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发布于:2018-07-21 12:12
CMA/TD08/07-21 03Z
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 210300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 08 INITIAL TIME 210300 UTC
00HR 18.3N 119.3E 998HPA 15M/S
MOVE ENE 19KM/H
P+06HR 18.7N 120.2E 998HPA 15M/S
P+12HR 19.1N 121.2E 998HPA 15M/S
P+18HR 20.2N 122.5E 995HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 21.2N 123.6E 995HPA 18M/S=
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180721110000023.jpg

[327于2018-07-21 12:15编辑了帖子]
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