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[IO]孟加拉湾北部低压BOB 03(96B) - 21.2N 87.6E

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更多 发布于:2018-07-21 00:48
96B INVEST 180720 1200 20.0N 89.0E IO 15 0

图片:ab48170928381f30f3a6087ba5014c086f06f009.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-07-22 02:56编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
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    96B
    2018-07-21 01:14
  • 9914dan
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    96B
    2018-07-21 01:14
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1楼#
发布于:2018-07-21 01:37
 (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.0N 88.9E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG,
BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH SPARSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST.
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INDUCING HIGH (25-35 KTS) VWS
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST ENABLING THAT
SPARSE CONVECTION. SSTS ARE VERY WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 96B WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
POSSIBLY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE INDIAN/BANGLADESHI BORDER AROUND
211200Z. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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2楼#
发布于:2018-07-21 06:40
WTIN20 DEMS 200803
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 20.07.2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
20.07.2018 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 20.07.2018.

  BAY OF BENGAL:
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) &
NEIGHBOURHOOD HAS BECOME WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST
BOB AND ADJOINING WEST BENGAL & ODISHA COASTS AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 20TH JULY. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
NEXT 48 HOURS. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL
BOB IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL & ADJOINING NORTH BOB AND NORTH ANDAMAN
SEA, GULF OF MARTABAN, ARAKAN COAST & NORTH TENNASSERIM COAST.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
LOW    MODERATE  HIGH     NIL      NIL

 ARABIAN SEA:

BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION LAY OVER GULF OF CAMBAY, GULF OF KUTCH AND NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.

 PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL     NIL      NIL      NIL      NIL


REMARKS:
MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO)
INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1.
THEREAFTER IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 6 FROM 21ST JULY ONWARDS WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. HENCE THE MJO PHASE IS FAVOURABLE FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER BOB ON 20TH, THEREAFTER IT
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE COUNTRY.
 =
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发布于:2018-07-21 06:47

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TCIN50 DEMS 202100
SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 202100 UTC (.)
REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0?N TO 30.0?S AND LONG 40.0?E TO 125.0?E
SALIENT FEATURES:-
VORTEX OVER NW BAY & N/HOOD :-

VORTEX OVER NW BAY & N/HOOD CENTRED WITHIN HALF A DEG OF 19.6N/88.0E (.)
INTENSITY T1.0 (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN
OVER COTL ORS AND MOD TO INT CONVTN OVER NW BAY ADJ WC BAY (.)


TPIO10 PGTW 202109
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96B (S OF BANGLADESH)
B. 20/2045Z
C. 21.31N
D. 88.47E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DAVIS

TXIO27 KNES 202216
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96B)
B.  20/2030Z
C.  20.6N
D.  88.3E
E.  FIVE/MET-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL, LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A BROAD CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A VERY SMALL AND FLUCTUATING COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF
1.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...TURK
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4楼#
发布于:2018-07-22 02:53
IMD早前升格低压BOB 03,已登陆

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 21.07.2018
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 21.07.2018 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 21.07.2018.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERIES INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL CROSSED NORTH ODISHA – WEST BENGAL
COAST
BETWEEN BALASORE (42895) & DIGHA (42901) DURING 1100-1200 UTC AND LAY
CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 21ST JULY 2018 OVER NORTH COASTAL ODISHA AND
ADJOINING COASTAL WEST BENGAL & NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 21.7
0N AND LONGITUDE 87.40E, ABOUT 55 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BALASORE (42895) AND 40 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS FOR
SOME MORE TIME AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW
PRESSURE AREA DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1200 UTC OF TODAY, BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER ODISHA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF CHHATTISGARH, NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND
NORTHWEST & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BOB.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 989 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL.
AT 1200 UTC, DIGHA (42901) REPORTED LOWEST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 989.3 HPA
AND A SURFACE WIND OF 110DEG / 02 KTS. BALASORE REPORTED MSLP OF 990.1 HPA AND
CALM SURFACE WIND. CHANDBALI REPORTED MSLP OF 991.8 HPA. NO SHIP OBSERVATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA.

JTWC撤评级

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZJUL2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.0N 88.9E, IS OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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