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[WP]1812号热带气旋“云雀”(15W.Jongdari)机构发报专帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-07-21 20:38
1812号热带气旋“云雀”机构发报指引
7月21日:
JTWC  TCFA

7月22日:
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月23日:
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月24日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18(命名)   21
CMA  21
KMA  18
CWB  18
HKO  18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月25日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月26日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月27日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月28日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  09   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月29日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月30日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

7月31日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

8月1日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风蓝色预警(06:00)   台风蓝色预警(10:00)   台风蓝色预警(18:00)
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

8月2日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风蓝色预警(06:00)   台风蓝色预警(10:00)   台风蓝色预警(18:07)
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18(Final Warning)

8月3日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12(降格低压)
CMA  00   03   06   09(降格低压)   12   15(停编)
         台风蓝色预警(06:21)   台风登陆消息(10:30)   台风蓝色预警(11:10)   解除台风蓝色预警(18:00)
CWB  00   06   12
HKO  00   12   18

WTPN22 PGTW 211300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210721Z JUL 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 140.8E TO 17.2N 137.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 140.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 141.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 140.5E, APPROXIMATELY
190 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A 210837Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER AND SHALLOW
CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE,
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT
TRACK THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE, SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHWESTERN OR
NORTHWESTERN TRACK, WITH A FEW OUTLIERS TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 105.6E.//
NNNN

图片:wp9618.gif

[红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-04 10:38编辑了帖子]
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  • 颱風巨爵
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    圖文補回,這次不扣分
    2018-07-21 21:53
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    圖文補回,這次不扣分
    2018-07-21 21:53
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    提醒:TCFA開帖必須要有圖或報文
    2018-07-21 21:08
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1楼#
发布于:2018-07-22 10:20
JTWC/15W/#01/07-22 00Z
WTPN35 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211251ZJUL2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 138.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 138.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 13.9N 137.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 15.1N 137.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 16.3N 136.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 17.9N 135.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 20.2N 134.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 22.0N 133.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 23.6N 132.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 138.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z
IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 211300).//
NNNN

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2楼#
发布于:2018-07-22 11:10
JTWC/15W/#01/07-22 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN35 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS COMPLETELY
OBSCURING THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED MSI AND A 211921Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE THAT SUGGESTS SOME
FORMATIVE BANDING MAY BE STARTING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT IT
IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THE LLCC IS LOCATED. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR TD 15W ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM SSTS (29-30C). TD 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED STR THROUGH TAU 120. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AND TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS TWO POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM DEVELOP A STRONG NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE WHICH DOMINATES THE STEERING AND BRINGS THE TRACK MORE
EASTERLY WHILE GFS, UKMET, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND HWRF FOLLOW MORE
CLOSELY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. THE MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION WAS
CHOSEN BECAUSE MORE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AND MORE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FAVORED THIS TRACK. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AT 65 KNOTS. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN WITH OVER 1000 NM SEPARATING THE HWRF AND NAVGEM MODEL BY
TAU 120. FOR THIS REASON, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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  • 9914dan
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    2018-07-23 18:08
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3楼#
发布于:2018-07-22 17:10
JTWC/15W/#02/07-22 06Z
WTPN35 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 137.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 137.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 15.2N 137.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 16.5N 137.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 17.9N 136.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 19.7N 136.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 22.1N 135.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 23.7N 134.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 25.6N 133.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 137.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
277 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp152018.20180722085623.gif

[327于2018-07-22 17:17编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +2
  • 9914dan
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    2018-07-23 18:08
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933954
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发布于:2018-07-22 17:27
JTWC/15W/#02/07-22 06Z Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN35 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST AND OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TD 15W. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 220600Z
HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK LOW LEVEL CLOUD
BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 15W HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT LIMITED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE.
VWS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH RANGES FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS WHICH IS CURRENTLY
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 15W
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN COMPETING
STEERING FEATURES WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE.
   B. TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRS. THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TD 15W WILL
STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THROUGH TAU 72,
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NAVGEM AND GFS, INDICATE
A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, WHILE COAMPS AND AFUM INDICATE A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GROUPING OF MODELS THAT
INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC FORECAST IS
HEDGED TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS SKEWED TO
THE EAST DUE TO THE COAMPS AND AFUM OUTLIERS. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD
IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TD
15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE STR TO THE EAST BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN. TD 15 WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU
72, ECMWF, WHICH HAD BEEN IN LINE WITH NAVGEM AND GFS PRIOR TO TAU
72, FORECASTS A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST WITH POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH
TS 14W. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
1条评分, 威望 +2
  • 9914dan
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    2018-07-23 18:08
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renzhetegong
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发布于:2018-07-22 22:52
JTWC/15W/#03/07-22 12Z
WTPN35 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 137.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 137.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 15.8N 137.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 16.9N 137.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 18.3N 136.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 19.8N 136.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 22.4N 135.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 24.1N 134.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 25.3N 133.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 137.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
299 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z,
230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W
(SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W
(THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp1518.gif

[renzhetegong于2018-07-22 23:01编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 威望 +8
  • luhang
    威望 6
    还有3贴未加分
    2018-08-05 08:47
  • 9914dan
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    2018-07-23 18:08
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renzhetegong
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6楼#
发布于:2018-07-22 23:42
JTWC/15W/#03/07-22 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN35 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 299
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST AND OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TD 15W. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 221143Z
OSCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE
AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED OSCAT IMAGE AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 15W HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT
LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS IMPROVED (10
TO 15 KNOTS) AND IS NOW FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 15W IS TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AS IT REMAINS
LOCATED BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING FEATURES WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
(STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE.
   B. TD 15W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRS. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TD 15W WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT LARGE DIFFERENCES STILL
REMAIN, WITH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
WHILE COTI HAS SHIFTED FROM A NORTHEAST TRACK TO A NORTHWEST TRACK,
WHICH IS NOW EVEN FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
NAVGEM HAS ALSO SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS IN LINE WITH THE GROUPING OF MODELS THAT INDICATE A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC FORECAST IS HEDGED
TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TD
15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE STR LOCATED
TO THE NORTHWEST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE STR TO THE EAST BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN. TD 15 WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU
72, ECMWF, WHICH HAD BEEN IN LINE WITH GFS PRIOR TO TAU 72, FORECASTS
A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST WITH POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TS 14W.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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  • 9914dan
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    2018-07-23 18:09
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发布于:2018-07-23 07:43
JTWC/15W/#04/07-22 18Z
WTPN35 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 004    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 136.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 136.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 15.7N 136.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 16.7N 135.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 18.2N 135.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 20.0N 134.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 21.9N 133.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 23.7N 132.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 24.8N 131.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 136.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp1518.gif

1条评分, 威望 +2
  • 9914dan
    威望 2
    优秀帖
    2018-07-23 18:09
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
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红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
总版主-南亚高压
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
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8楼#
发布于:2018-07-23 07:45
JTWC/15W/#04/07-22 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN35 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 221654Z ATMS 88 GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A VERY BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS AND SOME INDICATION OF
FORMATIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW OF T1.5
(25 KNOTS) BASED ON A 221143Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION OF TD 15W WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 CELSIUS). TD 15W IS TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER JAPAN (TO THE NORTHWEST).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE.
   B. TD 15W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. DESPITE THE LARGE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, ALL MODELS DEPICT A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. BEYOND
TAU 48, THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN TD 15W TURNING RIGHT TO
BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEAST. OF NOTE, A LARGE NUMBER OF MEMBERS IN THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE CONTROL MEMBER
ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IS MASSIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH FOLLOWS THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO
THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. TD 15W IS FORECASTED TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS
BY TAU 120 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
1条评分, 威望 +2
  • 9914dan
    威望 2
    优秀帖
    2018-07-23 18:10
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-31
  • 最后登录2019-04-20
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  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2018-07-23 11:00
JTWC/15W/#05/07-23 00Z

图片:wp152018.20180723021937.gif



WTPN35 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 005    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z --- NEAR 15.2N 137.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 137.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 16.3N 137.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 17.6N 136.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 19.1N 135.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 20.5N 135.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 22.4N 134.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 24.1N 133.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 25.1N 132.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 137.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp152018.20180723025444.gif

[327于2018-07-23 11:11编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +2
  • 9914dan
    威望 2
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    2018-07-23 18:10
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