颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[WP]硫磺岛东北热带低压16W - 云雀尾巴诱生 - JMA:TD[W]

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更多 发布于:2018-07-28 21:18
90W INVEST 180728 1200 25.0N 148.0E WPAC 15 0

图片:20180728.1310.himawari-8.ir.90W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.25N.148E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-07-31 12:40编辑了帖子]
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  • tcfa_gw
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    07-28 21:54
  • tcfa_gw
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    07-28 21:54
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菜鸟一个菜鸟一个
Society is dead, long live society!
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
wwwawa
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2018-07-28 21:49
云雀留下的尾巴?
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tantian
热带风暴
热带风暴
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2楼#
发布于:2018-07-29 12:37
自成体系
很早就关注台风。
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933954
台风
台风
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3楼#
发布于:2018-07-29 14:04
JTWC:LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJUL2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290155ZJUL2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 290000Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (JONGDARI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
34.6N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 53 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN35 PGTW 290300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
27.5N 148.9E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 282332Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS SEVERAL 15-
20 KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE LLC.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
AREA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
90W WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, BUT VARY ON
TIMING AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


[933954于2018-07-29 14:06编辑了帖子]
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luhang
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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4楼#
发布于:2018-07-30 07:20
WTPN21 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.2N 152.9E TO 32.9N 153.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
291900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N
153.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.5N
148.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS THERE IS WEAK CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM'S INITIAL
POSITION DUE TO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC AND LACK OF VISIBLE IMAGERY. A
281741Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
DEPICTING THE WEAK CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE AND A DISORGANIZED
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ALL DISPLAY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING. NAVGEM AND GFS ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JGSM, ECMWF, AND
UKMET SHOWING DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302100Z.//

NNNN

图片:wp9018.gif

图片:90W_292100sair.jpg



(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
27.5N 148.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS THERE IS WEAK CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM?S INITIAL
POSITION DUE TO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC AND THE LACK OF VISIBLE
IMAGERY. A 281741Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH DEPICTING THE WEAK CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE AND A
DISORGANIZED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ALL DISPLAY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING. NAVGEM AND GFS ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JGSM, ECMWF, AND
UKMET SHOWING DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 292100).

图片:abpwsair.jpg

回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
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meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-07-30 10:28
日本当用汉字是硫黄島,中译硫磺岛/硫磺島,沒有“硫黄岛”这种用法。
2条评分, 金钱 +1
  • 颱風巨爵
    金钱 0.0
    不過CMA上用的是「硫磺岛」,也沒所謂
    07-30 14:14
  • 颱風巨爵
    金钱 +1
    HKO一貫使用硫黃島,其他亦有使用
    07-30 13:55
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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Mitch
禁止发言-干空气
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发布于:2018-07-30 11:07
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
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superstorm
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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7楼#
发布于:2018-07-30 11:28
就副高目前的位置来看,也许路径又是个奇葩
以后去海南工作,那里才有大台风可以看
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Mitch
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发布于:2018-07-30 11:33
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-07-30 13:21
JMA在03Z先画上低压区
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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