[WP]1816号强热带风暴“贝碧嘉”(20W.Bebinca) - 路径曲折离奇，多次打圈停滞，粤西普降暴雨，澳门长悬风球138小时破纪录

EC和GFS继续重大分歧，前者支持下周中后期逐步北上靠近粤西，后者支持沿着季风槽一路东移并在菲东与另一TC互旋乃至整合为一个庞然大物。

这次好像是越强越西，不对请指正

ABPW10 PGTW 032330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/032330Z-040600ZAUG2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031951ZAUG2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 031800Z, TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.3N 149.4E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM EAST OF AGRIHAN, AND HAD TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 032100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 137.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY
480 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 031551Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE
SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH INTERMITTENT POCKETS OF
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
24.4N 175.3E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST,
NORTHWEST, AND NORTHEAST. A 031828Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHALLOW FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE POSITION. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE,
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27 CELSIUS). THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA
THAT IS WEAKLY BAROCLINIC AND THE THERMAL STRUCTURE IS INDICATIVE OF
A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND WINDS WILL EXCEED 25 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT ALSO SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUBTROPICAL.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4N 118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD
LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH. A 032003Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP BUT SMALL POCKETS OF CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN TWO POSSIBLE TRACKS FOR
THIS SYSTEM. MOST MODELS FAVOR A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE INVEST 96W MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST, ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, AND INTENSIFYING ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PHILIPPINES BEFORE CONTINUING ON A EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED TO REFLECT EXPIRATION OF THE
FINAL WARNING FOR TD 15W. ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS A LOW. ADDED
AREA IN PARA 1.B.(3) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

图片：abpwsair.jpg

韦森特的记忆锛氄獯魏孟袷窃角吭轿鳎�不对请指正鍥炲埌鍘熷笘

同意,系統愈強就可以脫離季風槽引導。系統愈強反而有利加強本身的強度

被拉出去就是ryan。南海土台风什么时候出个C5

現時96W身處風切比較強的地方，相信要北移南海東部才能發展。

feidele锛毐焕�出去就是ryan。南海土台风什么时候出个C5鍥炲埌鍘熷笘

这很难吧，条件要求比较苛刻

powerng锛毈F時96W身處風切比較強的地方，相信要北移南海東部才能發展。鍥炲埌鍘熷笘

ec新报也是预测96w移至南海中部发展才显著

ec新报粤西阳江，巅峰983hpa。

图片：ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_9.png