WP, 96, 2018080318, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1186E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
图片:20180803.1830.himawari-8.ir.96W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.12.4N.118.6E.100pc.jpg ![]() [颱風巨爵于2018-08-18 00:15编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2018-08-04 06:40
EC和GFS继续重大分歧,前者支持下周中后期逐步北上靠近粤西,后者支持沿着季风槽一路东移并在菲东与另一TC互旋乃至整合为一个庞然大物。
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2楼#
发布于:2018-08-04 07:22
这次好像是越强越西,不对请指正
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3楼#
发布于:2018-08-04 07:46
JTWC:LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 032330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/032330Z-040600ZAUG2018// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031951ZAUG2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4N 118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH. A 032003Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH DEEP BUT SMALL POCKETS OF CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN TWO POSSIBLE TRACKS FOR THIS SYSTEM. MOST MODELS FAVOR A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE INVEST 96W MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST, ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, AND INTENSIFYING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PHILIPPINES BEFORE CONTINUING ON A EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED TO REFLECT EXPIRATION OF THE FINAL WARNING FOR TD 15W. ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS A LOW. ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(3) AS A LOW.// NNNN 图片:abpwsair.jpg ![]() [红豆棒冰冰于2018-08-04 07:47编辑了帖子]
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4楼#
发布于:2018-08-04 08:19
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5楼#
发布于:2018-08-04 08:25
被拉出去就是ryan。南海土台风什么时候出个C5
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6楼#
发布于:2018-08-04 08:31
現時96W身處風切比較強的地方,相信要北移南海東部才能發展。
[powerng于2018-08-04 08:48编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于:2018-08-04 10:04
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8楼#
发布于:2018-08-04 10:05
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9楼#
发布于:2018-08-04 10:10
ec新报粤西阳江,巅峰983hpa。
图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_9.png ![]() |
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