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[EP]墨西哥以南热带风暴“伊莱亚娜”(11E.Ileana) - 并入John环流之中

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更多 发布于:2018-08-04 20:16
96E INVEST 180804 1200  12.0N   94.0W EPAC   20  1008

图片:20180804.1200.goes-15.ir.96E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.12N.94W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d3.png

图片:two_pac_5d3.png



3. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized shower
activity. Although this system has the potential to become a
tropical depression early next week, strong upper-level winds from
another disturbance to the west could prevent tropical cyclone
formation while the system moves westward or west-northwestward
south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-08-07 21:15编辑了帖子]
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Society is dead, long live society!
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
颱風巨爵
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发布于:2018-08-05 02:20
形勢急轉,6小時 30%/40%→90%/90%

图片:two_pac_2d3.png



3. Satellite images indicate that a low pressure area located about 275
miles south-southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico, has become
significantly better defined this morning, and a tropical depression
could be forming.  If current trends continue, advisories could be
initiated this afternoon or evening on this system.
 The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, relatively
close to Mexico, and interests along the southern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.  Heavy rainfall and
gusty winds could affect coastal regions of Guerrero northwestward
to Jalisco over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:goes16_ir-dvorak_96E_201808041736.jpg

图片:LATEST.jpg




東太將迎來盛世

图片:two_pac_2d0.png

图片:two_pac_5d0.png

Society is dead, long live society!
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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wwwawa
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发布于:2018-08-05 08:24
升格11E

图片:203536_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


973
WTPZ21 KNHC 042033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018
2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  95.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  95.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  94.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.9N  96.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.6N  98.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.3N 100.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 102.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  95.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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发布于:2018-08-05 11:18
203
WTPZ41 KNHC 050238
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018

After having a somewhat impressive satellite presentation earlier
today, the final GOES-16 visible images showed what appeared to be
the cyclone's low-level center popping out from the northwestern
edge of the convective canopy. Since that time, the remaining
convection south and east of the center has become less organized,
apparently due to enhanced wind shear associated with a linear band
of convection to the northwest of the cyclone.

This structural degradation of the system further complicates what
was already a low-confidence forecast due to the depression
interacting with the developing system located to its west. The 18Z
GFS doesn't have much of a representation of the depression, and it
is quickly lost in the model integration. The latest HWRF fields
show the vortex being absorbed into the circulation of the
disturbance to the west after 24 hours, and the HMON shows the
system dissipating in 2 to 3 days. On the other hand, the 12Z
runs of the ECMWF and UKMET maintain the depression into days 4 and
5, respectively. In an effort to maintain some continuity with the
previous forecast while acknowledging the current trends, the new
intensity forecast still shows some strengthening but at a slower
rate given that the upper-level winds appear to be winning out so
far over the warm SSTs. The official forecast carries the tropical
cyclone through 72 hours with dissipation shown at day 4, but it
would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated much sooner than
indicated here.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat more confident 295/10
given that the center was exposed right around 00Z. The track
forecast reasoning has not changed, as the small cyclone should be
steered west-northwestward by a large ridge to its north and the
aforementioned disturbance to the west, which the model guidance
suggests will strengthen quickly during the next couple of days.
The new NHC forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one and
is close to a blend of the ECMWF and UKMET models.

Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected
to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low
confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,
interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or
the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 13.0N  95.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 13.4N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 14.2N  99.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 15.1N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

图片:023929_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-08-05 11:19编辑了帖子]
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Mitch
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发布于:2018-08-05 11:26
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发布于:2018-08-05 19:07
832
WTPZ41 KNHC 050850
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Convection associated with the depression has increased through the
early morning, but the system still appears to be sheared from the
north. A pair of ASCAT passes between 03Z and 04Z revealed that the
center of the depression is elongated and has reformed to the south,
closer to the convection. The maximum believable winds in the ASCAT
data were around 30 kt, and the initial intensity has been set at
that value.

Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast,
however confidence is low. The global and regional dynamical models
all forecast that a disturbance to the west will develop later today
and quickly become the dominant cyclone. This should cause the
depression to dissipate as it becomes entangled in the other
system's larger circulation. However, there is little agreement
among the models as to when or where this will occur. On one hand,
the GFS continues to insist that the depression will dissipate later
this morning, while the UKMET shows two distinct cyclones through 96
hours. Further complicating matters, the close proximity of the two
cyclones is affecting the trackers used to obtain track and
intensity information from the dynamical models, and most of the
dynamical tracker output can not be considered representative,
especially at 48 h and beyond.

Assuming the depression persists for at least a couple more days,
the ECMWF and HWRF models appear to be the best compromise
solutions, with both showing the depression accelerating
northwestward between the disturbance to the west and a mid-level
ridge to the east, before dissipating in 48-72 h. The NHC track
forecast therefore leans most heavily on a blend of these models
and the previous forecast track. The intensity forecast is based
primarily on the statistical models, since the dynamical tracker
output appears to be unrepresentative of the actual forecasts.
Although the official forecast conservatively maintains the
depression for 72 h, the cyclone could dissipate much sooner than
currently indicated.

Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected
to remain offshore the coast of Mexico.  However, given the low
confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,
interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or
the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 13.0N  96.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 13.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

图片:085155_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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newshidai2004
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发布于:2018-08-06 12:35
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 060251
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

A new burst of deep convection developed near the low-level center
beginning around 2200 UTC.  A second ASCAT pass earlier this
afternoon showed winds of 40-45 kt, while SATCON estimates from
UW-CIMSS were a little above 50 kt.  Given these data, Ileana's
maximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt.  The shear is forecast to
be on the order of 15 kt, which is not the most ideal environment
for strengthening, but the cyclone will also be moving over very
warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and through a moisture-laden
environment. Nearly all of the intensity models indicate additional
strengthening, with some, such as the SHIPS and LGEM models,
bringing Ileana near or to hurricane strength in a day or so.  On
the flip side, the GFS and ECMWF have Ileana opening up into a
trough on the northern side of Tropical Storm John in 36-48 hours.
Given the large spread in model scenarios, the updated NHC intensity
forecast is increased only a little from the previous advisory.  A
48-hour forecast is still provided for continuity, but if the GFS
and ECMWF are right, the cyclone could dissipate by that time.

Ileana is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest with an
initial motion of 290/11 kt.  Additional acceleration with a turn
toward the northwest is expected over the next day or so as the
cyclone moves between Tropical Storm John and large-scale ridging
over Mexico and the southern United States.  The updated NHC track
forecast is essentially right along the projection from the previous
advisory, but it is a little faster to account for the speedier GFS,
ECMWF, and HCCA solutions.

The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official
forecast now graze the coast of southwestern Mexico, and as a
result, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes.  Even though
Ileana is forecast to dissipate after 48 hours, it is not out of
the question that the cyclone could last a little longer, and
interests on the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 14.3N  99.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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meow
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发布于:2018-08-06 18:14
这也上看飓风了

图片:090327_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png



Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

A strong burst of deep convection consisting of some cloud top
temperatures of -85 to -90 deg C near the center has developed
during the past several hours. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO)
feature has developed as a result, and the Acapulco, Mexico, radar
indicates that a banded eye feature has developed in the center of
the CDO. Based on the radar data and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of
T3.6/57 kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

Ileana has begun to accelerate around the eastern periphery of
rapidly developing Tropical Storm John, and initial motion estimate
is now 310/15 kt. Little change was made to the previous forecast
track other than to nudge the forecast a little more to the right,
closer to Mexico, due to the more eastward initial position based
on the aforementioned radar data. Ileana is expected to continue
moving northwestward between Tropical Storm John and a deep-layer
ridge over Mexico. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement
on this track scenario until dissipation or absorption occurs in
about 72 hours, and the new forecast track lies close to the HCCA
and FSSE consensus track model solutions.

The shear is forecast to decrease to around 15 kt over the next 24
hours, and the global model fields actually indicate that the shear
could be lower than that since most of the stronger outflow from
Tropical Storm John will remain north of Ileana. Based on the
expected lower shear conditions, a very moist atmosphere, SSTs
near 30 deg C, and the much improved internal structure noted in
radar data, Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane within the
next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast follows the upward
trend of the consensus models FSSE and HCCA, but is a little lower
and closer to the IVCN intensity consensus model.

The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official
forecast has been expanded to the northeast based on recent ASCAT
wind data. Although the core of strongest winds are forecast to
remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight
deviation to the right of track and/or strong localized funneling
effects would bring hurricane-force winds onshore. As a result,
the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta
San Telmo to Playa Perula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 15.2N 100.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 16.5N 102.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 20.3N 107.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 21.6N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

图片:goes16_ir-dvorak_11E_201808060836.jpg

图片:20180806.0836.gw1.89pct89h89v.11E.ILEANA.50kts.999mb.14.7N.99.7W.70pc.jpg

图片:20180806.0846.n20.165bt.11E.ILEANA.50kts.999mb.14.7N.99.7W.075pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-08-07 02:26编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-08-07 00:31
557
WTPZ41 KNHC 061439
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Ileana continues to produce very deep convection near its center,
with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C.  Microwave imagery and the
Acapulco radar have shown some eyewall structure, at least at
mid-levels.  Although conventional Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB provided intensity estimates of only 45 kt, the advisory
intensity is kept at 55 kt in better agreement with SATCON estimates
from UW-CIMSS.  Since Ileana will be in a moist, low-shear, and warm
water environment, the system is likely to strengthen into a
hurricane within 12 hours or so, with some additional
intensification through Tuesday morning.  Thereafter, the influence
of the much larger circulation of John to the southwest is expected
to begin having an adverse effect on Ileana.  The system should
begin weakening later on Tuesday, and dissipate or become absorbed
by John on Wednesday. This is the scenario that is depicted by the
ECMWF and GFS global model guidance.

Ileana continues to move briskly toward the northwest or about
310/15 kt.  The tropical cyclone is expected to move between a
mid-level ridge and the circulation of John for the next couple of
days.  The official track forecast is a little to the left of the
previous one but a little north of the latest multi-model consensus.

No changes to the watches and warnings are required at this time.
Although the core of strongest winds is forecast to remain offshore
of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight deviation to the
right of track could bring stronger winds onshore, particularly in
the area where the hurricane watch has been posted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 16.3N 101.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 17.8N 104.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 19.3N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 21.5N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

图片:144447_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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renzhetegong
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发布于:2018-08-07 21:09
EP, 11, 2018080712,   , BEST,   0, 203N, 1083W,  40, 1004, DB,  34, NEQ,   40,    0,    0,   30, 1006,   50,  20,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     ILEANA,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 021,
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