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[IO]孟加拉湾北部低压BOB 04 - 21.5N 87.5E

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更多 发布于:2018-08-07 19:57
WTIN20 DEMS 071150

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 07.08.2018

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED
AT 1200 UTC OF 07.08.2018 BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 07.08.2018.
BAY OF BENGAL:

LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERIES INDICATE THAT A
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTERED
AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 07TH AUGUST, 2018 NEAR LATITUDE 21.50N
AND LONGITUDE 87.50E, ABOUT 55 KM SOUTHEAST OF OF BALASORE (42895)
AND 110 KM NORTHEAST OF CHANDBALI (42973). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ODISHA AND WEST BENGAL COAST,
CLOSE TO BALASORE DURING 1400-1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 7TH AUGUST.

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 7TH, BROKEN LOW
AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LAY OVER NORTHWEST BOB AND ADJOINING ODISHA & NEIGHBOURHOOD.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. STATE
OF SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
AT 0900 UTC, BALASORE (4285) REPORTED LOWEST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
 (MSLP) OF 993 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND (MSW) OF 050
DEG/04 KTS. CHANDBALI (42973) REPORTED MSLP OF 993.4 HPA AND MSW OF
270 DEG / 02 KTS..
REMARKS:
MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. ALSO, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 29-300C OVER NORTHWEST BOB & ADJOINING
ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL
IS ABOUT 40-60 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF CENTRAL BOB AND OFF
ODISHA COAST. IT IS BECOMING LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH BOB
ABOVE 200N.
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES IN PHASE 6 WITH
AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1 AND WILL REMAIN IN SAME PHASE FOR
NEXT 4 DAYS. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 7 ON 12TH AUGUST, WITH AMPLITUDE
REMAINING MORE THAN 1. MJO PHASE IS NOT FAVOURALE FOR CYCLOGENESIS
OVER BOB REGION.
THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 100X10-5SEC-1 OVER
NORTHWEST BOB & ADJOINING ODISHA & WEST BENGAL COASTS. THE LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE
ABOUT 20 X10-5SEC-1 AND 10 X10-5SEC-1 OVER SOUTH COASTAL ODISHA TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) OVER THE NORTHWEST BOB AND ADJOINING
ODISHA & WEST BENGAL COASTS.=
[933954于2018-08-07 20:44编辑了帖子]
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