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[WP]1815号热带气旋“丽琵”(19W.Leepi)机构发报专帖

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更多 发布于:2018-08-11 09:31

图片:wp1918.gif


WTPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 144.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 144.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 19.9N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 21.6N 142.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 23.6N 140.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 25.4N 138.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 144.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07CKNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW)CFOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp19180.gif



WTPN31 PGTW 110300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 144.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 144.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 19.9N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 21.6N 142.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 23.6N 140.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 25.4N 138.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 144.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07CKNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW)CFOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
CORRECTED MANOP HEADER NUMBER.//
NNNN
[iam最小值于2018-08-12 00:07编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
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    08-11 10:32
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    08-11 10:32
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luhang
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1楼#
发布于:2018-08-11 10:35
JTWC/19W/#01/08-11 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A COMPACT
SYSTEM THAT HAS PERSISTENTLY FLARED, AIDED BY LIMITED NORTHEASTWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK AND
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BAND EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A PARTLY EXPOSED LLC
DISCERNIBLE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (T1.5)
AND RJTD (T0.5). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TD IS IN A NARROW
AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS. WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND MINIMAL
OUTFLOW ARE PROVIDING AMPLE FUEL TO THE FLARING CONVECTION. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION
OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.  
   B. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD IWO TO UNDER THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE NEAR TERM. AFTERWARD, AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE NARROW ZONE OF VWS IT WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH
(25-30 KNOT) VWS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW INTO THE
TUTT CELL AND SHORTLY AFTERWARD, STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE DISTANCE TO THE TUTT
CELL DECREASES DUE TO ITS ANTICIPATED WESTWARD PROPAGATION, AND THE
STORM MOTION OF THE TD, THE OUTFLOW WILL DIMINISH AND BE REPLACED BY
SUBSIDENCE. THESE, PLUS THE HIGH VWS WILL CAUSE THE SIGNIFICANT DECAY
OF TD 19W LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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    08-29 13:00
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MTWP
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发布于:2018-08-11 15:33
JTWC/19W/#02/08-11 06Z

图片:wp1918.png


WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 143.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 143.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 21.2N 142.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 22.9N 140.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 24.8N 138.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 26.6N 136.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 143.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
[MTWP于2018-08-11 16:40编辑了帖子]
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    08-29 13:00
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3楼#
发布于:2018-08-11 17:20
JTWC/19W/#02/08-11 06Z
WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
349 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM, APPROXIMATELY 120NM
DIAMETER, WITH A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 110739Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE
IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS), HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING QUICKLY AND WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT THE NEXT WARNING CYCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT
CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH OUTFLOW HINDERED TO THE
NORTHWEST BY NORTHERLY, CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BROAD ANTICYCLONE ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF JAPAN. TD 19W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD
19W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12 UNDER FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 12, TD 19W SHOULD ENCOUNTER
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH WILL SERVE
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE
VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT CELL,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR 12-24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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luhang
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4楼#
发布于:2018-08-11 22:00
JTWC/19W/#03/08-11 12Z

图片:wp1918.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 20.1N 143.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 143.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 21.9N 142.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 23.7N 140.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 25.5N 138.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 26.9N 136.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 28.5N 131.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 143.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391 NM NORTH
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
[luhang于2018-08-11 22:07编辑了帖子]
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  • 327
    威望 2
    JMA死了
    08-29 13:00
回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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5楼#
发布于:2018-08-11 23:00
JTWC/19W/#03/08-11 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391 NM
NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH A 140-160NM DIAMETER CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 111155Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH, ALONG WITH A 111156Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY
ANALYSIS, SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A 111156Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWING NUMEROUS 45 KNOT WINDS WITH 50-55 KNOT WINDS IN THE
CORE. DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OF THE SYSTEM (FROM 20
KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES ARE TOO LOW AT T2.5 (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH OUTFLOW HINDERED TO THE NORTHWEST
BY NORTHERLY, CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
ANTICYCLONE ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF JAPAN. TS 19W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. DUE TO THE ONGOING RI PHASE AND MIDGET CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
SYSTEM, THERE IS A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, WHICH
NOW INCLUDES A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY AND PEAK
INTENSITY (70 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, THE 34 KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE ASCAT IMAGE.
   B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD
19W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 12 UNDER FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, TS 19W SHOULD ENCOUNTER
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH WILL SERVE
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE
VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT CELL,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR 12-24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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    威望 2
    JMA死了
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t02436
顶级超台
顶级超台
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6楼#
发布于:2018-08-11 23:56
JMA/1815/08-11 15Z
台風第15号 (リーピ)
平成30年08月12日01時00分 発表

图片:1815-00.png


<12日00時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域 小笠原近海
中心位置 北緯 20度35分(20.6度)
東経 143度30分(143.5度)
進行方向、速さ 北 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速 30m/s(60kt)
15m/s以上の強風域 東側 220km(120NM)
西側 110km(60NM)

<12日12時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 小笠原近海
予報円の中心 北緯 22度55分(22.9度)
東経 142度00分(142.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 996hPa
中心付近の最大風速 23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径 70km(40NM)

<13日00時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 父島の南西約260km
予報円の中心 北緯 25度20分(25.3度)
東経 140度35分(140.6度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速 30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
[t02436于2018-08-12 00:04编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +2
  • 327
    威望 2
    优秀帖
    08-29 13:00
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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7楼#
发布于:2018-08-12 00:10
CMA/1815/08-11 15Z

图片:2018.08.11.23热带风暴“丽琵”预报图.jpg


ZCZC
WSCI40 BABJ 111500
TO BCSY BCHK BCSH BCCD BCGZ
BETY BEXA BETJ BESZ BEJN BEZZ BEBJ
2053 0669 1417 0143 2456 (20.2) 9887 9976
(143.6) 9878 4104 3583 1601 3049 2467 2456
9911 9815 9899 7030 1193 4882 3634 4574
(1415) 5714 3583 1601 3049 2467 9975
BABJ/3049 9708 9911 9815 =
NNNN

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 111500
CCAA 11150 99398 11165
LEEPI 15202 11436 12234 225// 9////
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 111500
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS LEEPI 1815 (1815) INITIAL TIME 111500 UTC
00HR 20.2N 143.6E 990HPA 20M/S
30KTS WINDS 180KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 30KM/H
P+12HR 22.7N 141.2E 975HPA 28M/S
P+24HR 23.9N 139.4E 970HPA 33M/S
P+36HR 25.1N 137.5E 975HPA 30M/S
P+48HR 26.4N 135.1E 982HPA 23M/S
P+60HR 27.2N 133.1E 995HPA 18M/S
P+72HR 28.3N 131.5E 998HPA 15M/S=
NNNN
[iam最小值于2018-08-12 10:10编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +1
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MTWP
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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发布于:2018-08-12 02:54
CMA/1815/08-11 18Z
ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 111800
CCAA 11180 99398 11165
LEEPI 15208 11435 12234 225// 93512
YAGI 14256 11256 12223 225// 93116
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180812020000032.JPG


ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 111800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS LEEPI 1815 (1815) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC
00HR 20.8N 143.5E 990HPA 20M/S
30KTS WINDS 180KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 20KM/H
P+12HR 22.5N 142.1E 975HPA 28M/S
P+24HR 24.4N 140.6E 970HPA 33M/S
P+36HR 26.1N 138.4E 975HPA 30M/S
P+48HR 27.7N 135.9E 982HPA 23M/S
P+60HR 28.9N 133.8E 995HPA 18M/S
P+72HR 29.4N 132.3E 998HPA 15M/S=
NNNN
[MTWP于2018-08-12 03:09编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 威望 +2
  • 327
    威望 2
    优秀帖
    08-29 13:01
眩しさだけは、忘れなかった。
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MTWP
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2018-05-12
  • 最后登录2018-11-16
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9楼#
发布于:2018-08-12 02:56
JMA/1815/08-11 18Z
台風第15号 (リーピ)
平成30年08月12日03時55分 発表
 

图片:1815-00.png


<12日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域 小笠原近海
中心位置 北緯 20度55分(20.9度)
 東経 143度35分(143.6度)
進行方向、速さ 北 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速 30m/s(60kt)
15m/s以上の強風域 東側 220km(120NM)
 西側 110km(60NM)
 
<12日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 小笠原近海
予報円の中心 北緯 23度05分(23.1度)
 東経 141度55分(141.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 996hPa
中心付近の最大風速 23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径 70km(40NM)
 
<13日03時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 父島の南西約260km
予報円の中心 北緯 25度35分(25.6度)
 東経 140度10分(140.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速 30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
 
<14日03時の予報>
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 日本の南
予報円の中心 北緯 29度00分(29.0度)
 東経 134度40分(134.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 1008hPa
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
1条评分, 威望 +2
  • 327
    威望 2
    优秀帖
    08-29 13:01
眩しさだけは、忘れなかった。
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