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[WP]1819号热带气旋“苏力”(22W.Soulik)机构发报专帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-08-15 06:54
WTPN22 PGTW 142230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/142200Z AUG 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
142200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 147.6E TO 15.2N 139.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
148.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 148.0E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 142047Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENING
CONVECTION ABOVE A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH
A BROAD REGION OF CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. VWS IS FAVORABLY LOW (5-10 KTS). A TUTT TO THE
NORTH IS AIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SSTS ARE VERY WARM (27-29 CELSIUS)
IN THE MARIANAS REGION AND ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A COMPLICATED PICTURE, AS 99W INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER ILL-
DEFINED DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST. THE NEAR TERM TRACK IS GENERALLY
WESTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD THEREAFTER AS THE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO
INTERACT AS DIFFERENT MODELS DEPICT THE TWO DISTURBANCES EITHER
MERGING OR DEVELOPING INDEPENDENTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
152230Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 127.5E.//
NNNN

图片:wp9918.gif

[933954于2018-08-16 09:56编辑了帖子]
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    08-15 07:58
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    08-15 07:58
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1楼#
发布于:2018-08-15 21:36
JMA/TD-a/08-15 12Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年08月15日22時30分 発表
 

图片:a-00.png


<15日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
中心位置 北緯 12度35分(12.6度)
 東経 143度40分(143.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
 
<16日09時の予報>
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 15度00分(15.0度)
 東経 142度50分(142.8度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
 
<16日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 17度55分(17.9度)
 東経 142度00分(142.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
[MTWP于2018-08-15 21:40编辑了帖子]
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2楼#
发布于:2018-08-15 22:40
JTWC/22W/#01/08-15 12Z
WTPN35 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z --- NEAR 12.5N 144.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 144.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 15.2N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 18.1N 142.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 21.1N 142.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 23.3N 142.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 25.6N 142.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 27.5N 141.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 29.7N 139.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 144.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:151200-wp2218.gif

[327于2018-08-15 22:45编辑了帖子]
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  • 327
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3楼#
发布于:2018-08-15 23:20
JTWC/22W/#01/08-15 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN35 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM. THE
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN A
1132Z ASCAT PASS. TD 22W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING ANALYZED TO THE EAST. DEEP
CONVECTION IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BROAD AND
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO
MODERATE AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY LIMITED.      
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
   B. TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING.
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE TRANSITIONS TO A
DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY INTENSITY
AS THE CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATES AND PASSES OVER WARM WATER WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IMPROVES, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTLY, IN
RESPONSE TO THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH CELL TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH GFS AND
ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT A GENERALLY PARALLEL TRACK
FARTHER TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK AS
WELL.//
NNNN
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4楼#
发布于:2018-08-16 01:03
JMA/TD-a/08-15 15Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年08月16日01時25分 発表

<16日00時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
中心位置 北緯 13度00分(13.0度)
東経 143度40分(143.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<16日12時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 15度25分(15.4度)
東経 142度40分(142.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

<17日00時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 18度25分(18.4度)
東経 141度55分(141.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

图片:a-00.png

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5楼#
发布于:2018-08-16 03:26
JMA/TD-a/08-15 18Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年08月16日04時25分 発表

<16日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
中心位置 北緯 14度00分(14.0度)
東経 143度40分(143.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<16日15時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 16度50分(16.8度)
東経 142度55分(142.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

<17日03時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 20度05分(20.1度)
東経 141度55分(141.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 30km/h(17kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

图片:a-00.png

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6楼#
发布于:2018-08-16 07:00
JTWC/22W/#02/08-15 18Z
WTPN35 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 143.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 143.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 16.0N 143.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 18.8N 142.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 21.4N 141.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 23.8N 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 25.6N 141.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 28.5N 138.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 31.7N 134.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 143.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:151800-wp2218.gif

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发布于:2018-08-16 07:00
JTWC/22W/#02/08-15 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN35 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A MOSTLY EXPOSED LLCC JUST WEST OF GUAM.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES TO ASSIST WITH THE
OVERNIGHT TRACKING OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, HIGH QUALITY RADAR
IMAGERY IS GIVING US AN EXCELLENT LOCATION OF THE LLCC, PROVIDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL POSITION AT 1800Z. BASED ON THE RADAR AND
INFRARED IMAGERY, DEEP CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERY IN AN ELONGATED BAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM BOTH RJTD AND PGTW, AN AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T2.1 (31 KNOTS) AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ANDERSEN
AB OF 20-25 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS. TD 22W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A GENERALLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.      
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.    
   B. TD 22W IS FORECAST JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, FORWARD SPEED WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM
ENTERS INTO A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, IN AN UPPER LEVEL COL REGION.
AFTER TAU 48, TD 22W WILL TURN ONTO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE
STEERING PATTERN SWITCHES TO A BROAD WEST-EAST ORIENTED DEEP-LAYER
STR TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AROUND TAU 12 AND CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36, AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TRANSITING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS AT
TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM SSTS, HIGH
OHC, STRONG OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48, WITH
SOME CROSS-TRACK ERROR OF ABOUT 200NM AT TAU 48 BETWEEN HWRF ON THE
RIGHT AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS PLACED ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ENVELOPE, HEDGED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THE OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 22W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED
STR. AFTER TAU 72, TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN, AS UPPER-
LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE PINCHES OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW ALOFT.
WHILE VWS AND SSTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVE FAVORABLE, THE CONSTRICTION
OF THE OUTFLOW WILL OFFSET THESE POSITIVE FACTORS AND CONTRIBUTE TO
THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY POOR
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL
TRACKERS. THE GFS, GALWEM, EGRR, ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THE TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, IN LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE, HWRF, COAMPS-TC REPRESENT THE ALTERNATE
SCENARIO, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME, AS MENTIONED,
THE JTWC TRACK LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK, WHICH FAVORS THE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS AND HIGH
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-08-16 07:00
JMA/TD-a/08-15 21Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年08月16日07時20分 発表

<16日06時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 14度25分(14.4度)
東経 143度20分(143.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<16日18時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 17度30分(17.5度)
東経 142度40分(142.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<17日06時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
予報円の中心        北緯 20度40分(20.7度)
東経 141度40分(141.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:152100-zooml-a-00.png

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MTWP
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发布于:2018-08-16 09:30
JMA/1819/08-16 00Z
台風第19号 (ソーリック)
平成30年08月16日10時30分 発表
 

图片:1819-00.png


<16日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
中心位置 北緯 15度00分(15.0度)
 東経 142度40分(142.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域 東側 500km(270NM)
 西側 280km(150NM)
 
<16日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 18度05分(18.1度)
 東経 141度55分(141.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧 996hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速 30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径 70km(40NM)
 
<17日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 小笠原近海
予報円の中心 北緯 21度00分(21.0度)
 東経 140度55分(140.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 992hPa
中心付近の最大風速 23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
 
<18日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 父島の南西約330km
予報円の中心 北緯 24度50分(24.8度)
 東経 140度10分(140.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 985hPa
中心付近の最大風速 30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速 40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径 180km(95NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 220km(120NM)
 
<19日09時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 日本の南
予報円の中心 北緯 25度55分(25.9度)
 東経 139度35分(139.6度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 975hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速 50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径 240km(130NM)

暴風警戒域 全域 310km(170NM)

图片:1819-00.png




<20日09時の予報>
存在地域 日本の南
予報円の中心 北緯 27度30分(27.5度)
 東経 137度10分(137.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(7kt)
予報円の半径 480km(260NM)
 
<21日09時の予報>
存在地域 日本の南
予報円の中心 北緯 29度35分(29.6度)
 東経 134度10分(134.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(8kt)
予報円の半径 650km(350NM)
[MTWP于2018-08-16 09:56编辑了帖子]
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