9914dan
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[AL]北大西洋四级飓风“弗洛伦斯”(06L.Florence) - 源自非洲长途跋涉,持续影响美国东岸 - NHC:120KT

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更多 发布于:2018-08-30 17:00
90L INVEST 180830 0600 12.9N 17.0W ATL 20 1007

图片:20180830.0900.msg-4.ir.90L.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.12.9N.17W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png



1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms moving off the coast of
Senegal are associated with a strong tropical wave and broad area
of low pressure.  A more well-defined low pressure system is
forecast to form between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands later
today after the tropical wave moves offshore over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean, and the low is likely to become a tropical
depression by the weekend while moving westward or west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.  This system is expected to bring
heavy rains and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday and
Saturday, and interests on the islands should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-09-18 21:56编辑了帖子]
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    08-30 17:14
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POCKETBOX
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1楼#
发布于:2018-08-30 17:10
GFS支持发展

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_atl_38.png



图片:90L_tracks_latest.png

图片:90L_intensity_latest.png

[POCKETBOX于2018-08-30 17:19编辑了帖子]
只有登上山顶,才能看到那边的风光。 -新的一天,新的开始-
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2楼#
发布于:2018-08-30 20:10
NHC:80%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system is located just off the west coast
of Senegal, Africa. Environmental conditions are favorable for a
tropical depression or a tropical storm to form as the disturbance
moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph near the Cabo
Verde Islands during the next day or two. This system is expected to
bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands
on Friday and Saturday, and if the current development trend
continues, Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings will likely be
required for these islands later today. Interests on the Cabo
Verde Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of
this developing disturbance.

1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Avila

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Correction to remove blank line

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system is located just off the west coast
of Senegal, Africa. Environmental conditions are favorable for a
tropical depression or a tropical storm to form as the disturbance
moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph near the Cabo
Verde Islands during the next day or two. This system is expected to
bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands
on Friday and Saturday, and if the current development trend
continues, Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings will likely be
required for these islands later today. Interests on the Cabo
Verde Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of
this developing disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Avila

竟然还会出现排版错误
[POCKETBOX于2018-08-30 21:22编辑了帖子]
只有登上山顶,才能看到那边的风光。 -新的一天,新的开始-
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发布于:2018-08-30 20:15
TCFA
没想到TCFA竟然比编扰早

WTNT21 KNGU 300600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 17.0W TO 13.0N 19.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 300600Z INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 17.0W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 413 MILES EAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AND
TOWARD THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 310600Z.
//

图片:al902018.gif

[POCKETBOX于2018-08-30 20:20编辑了帖子]
只有登上山顶,才能看到那边的风光。 -新的一天,新的开始-
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NEWS
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4楼#
发布于:2018-08-30 20:36
請問各位有90L的NRL或FNMOC雲圖嗎?
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327
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5楼#
发布于:2018-08-30 22:30
Special Message from NHC Issued 30 Aug 2018 14:08 UTC  
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
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炎煌深沉
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6楼#
发布于:2018-08-30 22:47
NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six

882
WTNT41 KNHC 301444
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

The area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa has
continued to become better organized, and is producing a large
area of disturbed weather with gusty winds, but currently lacks a
well-defined center. Environmental conditions are favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression or a tropical
storm could form an any time today or Friday.
Given the high
chances that this system could bring tropical storm conditions to a
portion of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, advisories have been
initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.
Most of the intensity
guidance calls for strengthening and so does the NHC forecast.


The system is embedded within the easterly trades and this flow
pattern will steer the disturbance toward the west or west-
northwest during the next few days.  By the end of the forecast
period, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the system
reaches a weakness in the subtropical high.  This is consistent with
the output of the global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 12.9N  18.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  31/0000Z 13.2N  20.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  31/1200Z 13.5N  22.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 14.0N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 15.0N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 16.5N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 18.5N  38.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 20.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

图片:144600_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png



AL, 06, 2018083012,   , BEST,   0, 128N,  179W,  25, 1007, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,   60,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,        SIX, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, alB02018 to al062018,
[炎煌深沉于2018-08-30 22:56编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-08-31 07:18
270
WTNT41 KNHC 302032
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

The area of low pressure has continued to become better defined,
and is still accompanied by a large area of disturbed weather
with gusty winds.  However, the system lacks a well-defined center,
and Dvorak classifications do not support to classify the
disturbance as a tropical depression at this time.  An environment
of high moisture and low shear favors genesis, and the disturbance
is expected to become a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24
hours.  These favorable conditions are expected to prevail, so the
NHC forecast gradually brings the winds up at a similar rate as the
intensity consensus.

Since the system lacks a well defined center, the initial motion is
uncertain.  The best estimate is toward the west or 280 degrees at
8 kt.  The disturbance is moving rather slow because it is still
embedded within the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow.  Once it
moves away from that region near Africa, it will be steered by the
trade winds around the subtropical ridge, and the system will
increase its westward or west-northwestward forward speed.  By the
end of the forecast period, a turn toward the northwest should begin
as the cyclone reaches a weakness in the subtropical high.  The
NHC forecast is similar to the earlier one, and is in between the
corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 12.9N  19.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  31/0600Z 13.1N  20.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  31/1800Z 14.0N  23.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 14.7N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 15.5N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 17.0N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 18.7N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 21.0N  43.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

图片:203343_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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发布于:2018-08-31 09:00
NHC:90%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from Hispaniola eastward to the Leeward Islands, as well as the
adjacent northeastern Caribbean Sea and Atlantic waters.  This
activity is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward, but
strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent any significant
development of this system during the next several days.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive when the system
reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.  Regardless of
development, this system could produce enhanced rainfall across
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and
Florida into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Beven

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-08-31 09:02编辑了帖子]
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9楼#
发布于:2018-08-31 10:48
870
WTNT41 KNHC 310240
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually
becoming better organized.  However, the convection is not yet well
enough organized to call the system a tropical cyclone, and recent
scatterometer data show that the system still lacks a well-defined
center of circulation.  The scatterometer did indicate winds of
25-30 kt, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 30 kt.

The system should be in an environment of light to moderate
easterly vertical shear for the next three to four days.  Sea
surface temperatures decrease along the forecast track during this
time, though, reaching 26C by 72-96 h.  The intensity guidance
suggests that the system should at least slowly develop despite the
falling SSTs, and based on this the new intensity forecast calls for
it to become a tropical depression in about 12 h, a tropical storm
in 12-24 h, and a hurricane near the 96-h point.  While the system
is expected to reach warmer SSTs near the end of the forecast
period, it is also expected to encounter westerly shear at that
time, which should limit additional intensification.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/11.  The trade winds
on the south side of the subtropical ridge should steer the system
west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the
next 3-4 days, passing near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands
Friday or Friday night.  Near the end of the forecast period, a
turn toward the northwest is forecast as the system approaches a
weakness in the ridge.  The new track forecast is again little
changed from the previous forecast and lies near the various
consensus models.  It should be noted that some adjustments to the
early parts of the forecast track may occur until the center
becomes better defined.

图片:024221_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 13.2N  20.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  31/1200Z 13.7N  22.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  01/0000Z 14.5N  24.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 15.3N  27.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 16.0N  30.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 17.5N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 19.0N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 21.5N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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