9914dan
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论坛版主-副热带高压
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[EP]东太平洋四级飓风“奥利维亚”(17E.Olivia) - 梅开二度,史上首个登陆茂宜岛TC,后苟延残喘倒在西太门口 - NHC:115KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-08-31 02:13
91E INVEST 180830 1800 12.4N 105.1W EPAC 25 1009

图片:20180830.1800.goes-15.vis.1km.91E.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.12.4N.105.1W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png



1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with an
area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system
moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-09-20 20:12编辑了帖子]
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luhang
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2018-08-31 07:07
TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 104.9W TO 15.3N 110.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 302130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 105.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4N 105.1W, APPROXIMATELY 1400NM SSE OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
302102Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MODERATE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE BETWEEN 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW LIMITED DEVELOPMENT BUT INDICATE A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
312200Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9118.gif

回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
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红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
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2楼#
发布于:2018-08-31 09:04
NHC:50%/80%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norman, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite data indicate that the circulation of a low pressure
system located about 450 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, has
become better defined today, but the associated showers and
thunderstorms remain disorganized.  Additional gradual development
of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend or early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-08-31 09:05编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
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3楼#
发布于:2018-08-31 13:28
NHC:60%/80%
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, have
changed very little in organization over the past several hours.
Gradual development of the low is still expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves generally west-northwestward, away from the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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红豆棒冰冰
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4楼#
发布于:2018-08-31 21:07
NHC:70%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norman, located more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low
pressure system located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.  Gradual development of this system is
anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next couple of days while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-08-31 21:09编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
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5楼#
发布于:2018-09-01 07:24
第2报TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302151Z AUG 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
302200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 106.4W TO 16.0N 110.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9N 106.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 105.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9N, 106.7W, APPROXIMATELY
335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311939Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE DEPICT PLENTY OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH SOME FORMATIVE
BANDING ABOVE A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT,
WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DUE TO EQUATORWARD AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. IN ADDITION,
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 91E CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LLC CONSOLIDATES AND THE
SYSTEM TRAVELS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
012200Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9118.gif

图片:91E_312100sair.jpg

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红豆棒冰冰
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6楼#
发布于:2018-09-01 07:39
NHC:90%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norman, located about 900 miles west-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about 400 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Additional development of
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form
tonight or on Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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雷阵雨
水汽
水汽
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7楼#
发布于:2018-09-01 09:41
升格17E
17E SEVENTEEN 180831 1800 14.0N 107.2W EPAC 25 1009

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炎煌深沉
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8楼#
发布于:2018-09-01 09:41
GFS支持发展

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_epac_22.png



图片:91E_tracks_latest.png

图片:91E_gefs_latest.png

图片:91E_intensity_latest.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-01 09:50编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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9楼#
发布于:2018-09-01 11:08
NHC首报上望95KT不封顶
410
WTPZ42 KNHC 010234
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
900 PM MDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located a
little more than 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has
developed organized deep convection and a well-defined center.
Therefore, the system now qualifies as a tropical depression, the
seventeenth one of the busy 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane
season.  The center of the system is estimated to be near the
northeastern portion of the deep convection based on recent
microwave data.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement
with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The initial motion of the depression is highly uncertain since it
only recently formed, but my best guess is 285/9.  The system is
expected to move a little slower to the west-northwest or northwest
during the next couple of days while it remains to the south of a
weakness in the subtropical ridge.  Beyond that time, the
subtropical ridge is expected to build to the north of the tropical
cyclone, and that should cause it to turn more westward and increase
in forward speed.  The models agree on this overall scenario, but
there is a fair amount of cross-track (north-south) spread.  The NHC
track forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope
near the various consensus models.

The depression is currently experiencing some northeasterly shear,
and that should limit the strengthening process overnight.  However,
the models show the upper-level pattern becoming quite favorable
this weekend.  The expected decrease in shear combined with warm
SSTs and a moist environment should allow the system to steadily
strengthen for most of the forecast period. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the HCCA model in the short term,
but leans heavily on that guidance from 48 hours and beyond.  It
should also be noted that the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models all show
this system deepening significantly during the next several days,
which is a good indication that this cyclone will likely become
another significant hurricane.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 14.3N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 15.6N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 16.1N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 16.6N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 17.0N 115.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 17.4N 118.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 18.3N 122.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:023536_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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