9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2009-06-25
  • 最后登录2018-12-15
  • 粉丝146
  • 关注61
  • 发帖数2530
  • 来自
阅读:2765回复:27

[AL]墨西哥湾热带风暴“戈登”(07L.Gordon) - 佛罗里达南部观测数据合格而命名,核心迷你近岸底层眼构建,登陆密西西比并深入内陆

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-09-02 20:07
91L INVEST 180902 1200 21.8N 75.5W ATL 20 1012

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png



1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits
of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough.  This weather system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little,
if any, development is expected during that time due to strong
upper-level winds.  However, the current unfavorable upper-level
wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more
conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday.  This disturbance
will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from
your local weather forecast office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-09-08 14:10编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
  • 327
    威望 3
    91L
    09-02 20:45
  • 327
    金钱 3
    91L
    09-02 20:45
喜欢0 评分2
I wanna reset.
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-12-17
  • 粉丝44
  • 关注40
  • 发帖数1733
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2018-09-03 07:21
NHC升格07L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

Corrected timing of first disturbance moving into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located
between north-central Cuba and the central Bahamas is gradually
becoming better organized, and upper-level winds are also becoming
more favorable. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward across the
northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys. The
system is forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
Monday afternoon and move toward the north-central Gulf Coast
Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will produce locally heavy
rains and gusty winds across the central and northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or two. A
tropical storm watch could be issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. For more information, see products from
your local weather forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A tropical wave located along the west coast of Africa is forecast
to move westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next
several days. Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become
more conducive for some slow development of this disturbance by the
middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart
713
WTNT42 KNHC 022046
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave that
the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has become better
organized today. Strong winds previously associated with an upper-
level trough just west of the system have decreased significantly
during the day, and the upper-level flow across the disturbance has
become more anticyclonic. Earlier scatterometer wind data indicated
that the system does not yet have a closed surface circulation.
However, the same data indicate that winds of 25-28 kt exist outside
of thunderstorm activity, with some higher gusts likely present.
The initial intensity is being set at a conservative 25 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/13 kt. The global
models are in excellent agreement that the strong subtropical ridge
to the north of the disturbance will remain entrenched across the
southeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states throughout the forecast
period. This flow pattern should keep the system moving in a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion until landfall occurs along
the central Gulf coast in 60-72 hours. The model tracks are tightly
packed, so the NHC official forecast track essentially lies down the
middle of the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the system
is expected to move across the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, and
reach the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

The aforementioned upper-level anticyclonic has been steadily
increasing during the day today, with weak cirrus outflow now
occurring in all quadrants. The disturbance is forecast to move
across the very warm waters of the Gulfstream late tonight and early
Monday morning where local diabatic heating should enhance deep
convection near the mid-level circulation, causing the vortex column
to build downward to the surface. Once a closed surface circulation
develops, the combination of low to modest vertical shear and SSTs
of at least 30C along the track should allow for at least slow but
steady strengthening. Although the official intensity forecast shows
weakening at 72 hours, this is due to the system expected to be
inland at that time. Conditions will favorable for continued
strengthening after the 48-h period until landfall occurs, and a
peak intensity of around 55 kt around 60 hours is possible. The
SHIPS and LGEM models were the only intensity guidance available for
this package, and the official forecast is just a little below an
average of those models. The HWRF and HMON models will be
forthcoming for the next advisory package, so some adjustments to
this first intensity forecast may be required as more guidance
becomes available.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system.

2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in
those areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this
system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this
week, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall
from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should
monitor products from their local National Weather Service office.

3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential
tropical cylones is generally larger than that for tropical
cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 22.7N  77.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  03/0600Z 23.7N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  03/1800Z 25.1N  81.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 26.6N  84.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 28.0N  87.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 30.6N  91.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  06/1800Z 33.0N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  07/1800Z 34.0N  95.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

图片:204435_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-09-03 07:22编辑了帖子]
欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-12-17
  • 粉丝44
  • 关注40
  • 发帖数1733
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2018-09-03 11:44
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, located near the central Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves westward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Cangialosi

235
WTNT42 KNHC 030252
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

There has been little change in the organization of the disturbance
since the previous advisory.  Satellite imagery shows that some new
convective bands have formed to the northeast of the trough axis,
but there is still no evidence of a closed surface circulation at
this time.  The initial intensity remains 25 kt, which is in
agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and recent surface
observations.  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Monday to give a better
assessment of the structure and intensity of the system.

The disturbance will be moving over warm waters and within
an area of generally low vertical wind shear.  These conditions
should allow gradual development of the system over the next day or
so.  The global model guidance indicates that the surface trough
will sharpen and that a closed surface circulation is likely to
develop in association with the system over the Gulf of Mexico
within the next 24-36 hours.  Once this occurs, the system is
expected to continue to gradually strengthen until it reaches the
north-central Gulf coast Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  The
intensity guidance did not change much this cycle and neither has
the latest official forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt.  The disturbance is
forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the
southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge that is centered over the
Mid-Atlantic states.  On this heading, the disturbance is
expected to pass over the Florida Keys or the southern Florida
peninsula tomorrow morning, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Monday night before approaching the north-central Gulf coast late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.  The dynamical model guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, however, since the system is still in
the pre-genesis phase future changes regarding the exact track
and timing of the onset of hazards are possible.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system.

2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in
those areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this
system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this
week, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall
from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should
monitor products from their local National Weather Service office.

3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential
tropical cyclones is generally larger than that for tropical
cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 23.4N  78.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  03/1200Z 24.5N  80.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 25.9N  83.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 27.5N  86.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 28.8N  88.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 31.7N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/0000Z 33.2N  94.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  08/0000Z 34.2N  95.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

图片:032225_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-09-03 11:46编辑了帖子]
欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2018-05-02
  • 最后登录2018-12-17
  • 粉丝30
  • 关注21
  • 发帖数1242
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2018-09-03 19:09
TCFA
WTNT21 KNGU 021800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.4N 77.0W TO 25.5N 83.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 78.1W. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
2. SATELLITE DERIVED SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN
NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCED BY THE WAVE CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 031800Z.//

图片:al912018.gif

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-12-17
  • 粉丝44
  • 关注40
  • 发帖数1733
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2018-09-03 20:26
003
WTNT42 KNHC 030904 CCA
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number   3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Corrected motion in second paragraph

The system is gradually becoming better organized with some
increased convective banding features.  However, surface and radar
data suggest that a well-defined center of circulation has not yet
formed.  The initial intensity is set at 25 kt in agreement with the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  An Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later this morning, and should provide a better estimate of
its intensity and structure.  Global model predictions show
a closed circulation forming within 12 to 24 hours, so the official
forecast calls for tropical cyclone status later today.  Although
the system should move over the very warm waters of the eastern and
north-central Gulf of Mexico during the next 36 hours, the model
guidance is not very aggressive about intensification.  This may be
due to some moderate shear as indicated by the SHIPS model output.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and
at the upper end of the numerical guidance suite.

The disturbance appears to have picked up some forward speed, and is
now moving at around 300/14 kt.  A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is likely, along the southwestern periphery of
a mid-level anticyclone, until landfall along the northern Gulf
coast.  The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus and is just slightly to the right of and faster than the
previous one.

Given the proximity of the 36-hour forecast point to the coast, it
is time to change the Tropical Storm Watch to a Warning.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys today, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
those areas beginning late Tuesday.  Heavy rainfall from this
system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next
few days, including areas that have already received heavy rainfall
from a different weather system.  Interests in these areas should
monitor products from their local National Weather Service office.

3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential
tropical cyclones is generally larger than that for tropical
cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 24.5N  80.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  03/1800Z 25.7N  82.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 27.2N  84.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 28.8N  87.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 30.4N  89.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 33.0N  92.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/0600Z 34.0N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  08/0600Z 35.5N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

图片:092142_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-31
  • 最后登录2018-12-17
  • 粉丝141
  • 关注59
  • 发帖数5065
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2018-09-03 20:40
NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS Florence and TS Gordon

...TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORMS NEAR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

532
WTNT62 KNHC 031202
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORMS NEAR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS...

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and radar data indicate
that Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven has become Tropical Storm
Gordon, with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). A
Tropical Storm Warning will be issued shortly for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula in a forthcoming
special advisory to be issued by 900 AM EDT (1300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 805 AM EDT...1205 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF CAPE SABLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Stewart

678
WTNT42 KNHC 031236
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Special Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,
along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate
that the disturbance has developed a closed surface circulation and
a well-defined center. Recent observations from a Weatherflow site
at Carys Fort Reef and radar data support increasing the maximum
winds to at least 40 kt. As a result of these data, the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named system of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Gordon.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt and the previous forecast
track remains unchanged. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward
in the first 24 to 36 hours to account for the initial increase in
intensity. Some additional adjustments may be required after the
reconnaissance aircraft completes its mission and provides more
detailed information on the stricture and intensity of Gordon.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions to
portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for these areas.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
those areas beginning late Tuesday.  Heavy rainfall from Gordon will
affect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next few days,
including areas that have already received heavy rainfall from a
different weather system.  Interests in these areas should monitor
products from their local National Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1230Z 25.1N  80.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 25.7N  82.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 27.2N  84.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 28.8N  87.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 30.4N  89.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 33.0N  92.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/0600Z 34.0N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  08/0600Z 35.5N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

图片:092142_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[9914dan于2018-09-03 22:41编辑了帖子]

图片

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-12-17
  • 粉丝44
  • 关注40
  • 发帖数1733
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2018-09-03 23:25
618
WTNT42 KNHC 031455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,
along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that
Gordon has continued to become organized this morning. The center
of the cyclone passed over Key Largo between 1100-1200 UTC,
producing a west wind in Islamorada and also at an observing site
in Florida Bay. Doppler velocity data and surface observations
support an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating
Gordon.

The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The latest model
guidance has shifted slightly to the right, but this is likely due
to the more northerly initial position. Other than that, the models
remain tightly packed and agree on a general west-northwestward to
northwestward motion for the next 48 hours right up until landfall
as the strong ridge to the north of Gordon moves little. The new NHC
forecast track was adjusted a little to the right of the previous
advisory track, but not as far to the east as some of the model
guidance out of respect for the reliable ECMWF deterministic run,
which is located on the southern edge of the guidance and shows
landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River, a solution that is
also supported by the new 0600Z short-range UKMET model run.

Gordon's appearance in both radar and satellite imagery has
continued to improve over the past several hours. The GFS- and
ECMWF-based SHIPS models indicate that westerly to northwesterly
vertical wind shear of about 10 kt is allegedly affecting Gordon,
but there are no indications of that in satellite imagery that I
can see. The cirrus outflow has continued to expand in all
quadrants, so the analyzed westerly shear is likely an artifact of
the small circulation being positioned so close to the strong trough
located its west. Since Gordon will be moving over sea-surface
temperatures near 30 deg C during the next 36-48 hours, and be near
or underneath an upper-level anticyclone, steady strengthening seems
likely. It is possible that Gordon could peak as a Category 1
hurricane after 36 hours, just before landfall occurs. For that
reason, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast. The new intensity forecast is above the previous
advisory, and is close to a blend of the consensus models
HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions
to portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for these areas.

2. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge to
portions of the central Gulf Coast and a Storm Surge Warning has
been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi-
Alabama border. Residents in these areas should listen to advice
from their local officials and all preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
portions of the central Gulf Coast. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach those areas late Tuesday, with hurricane
conditions possible in the watch area.

4. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8
inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 25.3N  81.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 26.5N  83.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 28.1N  86.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 29.9N  88.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 31.3N  90.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/1200Z 33.9N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/1200Z 34.8N  94.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  08/1200Z 37.6N  95.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

图片:152326_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-09-03 23:26编辑了帖子]
欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2009-06-25
  • 最后登录2018-12-15
  • 粉丝146
  • 关注61
  • 发帖数2530
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2018-09-04 03:24
快速横过佛州南端,雷达图上惊现迷你核心。
戳图可动.

图片:QQ图片20180904031145.gif

图片:QQ图片20180904031221.gif

图片:QQ图片20180904031240.gif

[9914dan于2018-09-04 03:27编辑了帖子]
I wanna reset.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-12-17
  • 粉丝44
  • 关注40
  • 发帖数1733
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2018-09-04 07:14
NHC上望HU
249
WTNT42 KNHC 032052
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Data from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, along
with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that
Gordon has strengthened a little more, with some these data
supporting an intensity of about 50 kt. However, since the earlier
5-n mi-diameter eye has eroded and inner-core convection has become
somewhat ragged, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. The latest model guidance
is still in excellent agreement on Gordon maintaining a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion for the next 48-72 hours right
up until landfall as a strong ridge to the north of the cyclone is
forecast to remain locked in place over the southeastern U.S. and
mid-Atlantic states. Although the guidance has shifted slightly back
to the left, no appreciable changes were made to the previous
forecast track since the models have been 'windshield-wipering' back
and forth over the past 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to or a little north of the latest consensus models.

Overall, Gordon's presentation in both radar and satellite imagery
has steadily improved since the previous advisory. Although the
inner-core structure has eroded somewhat, outer banding features
have improved and now extend as far north as central and northern
Florida. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models continue to
indicate that westerly to northwesterly wind shear of 10-15 kt is
expected to affect Gordon for the next 36 hours, a flow pattern that
would generally hinder development. However, the global models'
upper-level wind fields show Gordon remaining near or underneath a
synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone, a more favorable pattern
that supports at least steady strengthening. Since Gordon will be
moving over very warm sea-surface temperatures of about 30 C, the
cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, just
before landfall. For that reason, a Hurricane Warning has been
issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little above the previous advisory, and is close to a
blend of the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents
in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in
the warning areas Tuesday afternoon or evening.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8
inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.

3. Rainfall will continue across portions of South Florida and the
Florida Keys through early Tuesday, where totals could reach as high
as 8 inches.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 26.2N  82.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 27.3N  84.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 28.9N  87.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 30.6N  89.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/1800Z 32.1N  91.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/1800Z 34.1N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/1800Z 35.5N  94.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z 38.2N  94.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

图片:212137_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
hei
hei
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-02-15
  • 最后登录2018-12-18
  • 粉丝391
  • 关注164
  • 发帖数10515
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2018-09-04 08:54
升至50KT

834
WTNT32 KNHC 040031 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 6A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Corrected to remove erroneous text in the Watch/Warning section.

...GORDON STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 83.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radar and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 83.4
West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected
over the next 72 hours.  On the forecast track, the center of Gordon
will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday, and
will approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the warning area
late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
36 hours, and Gordon is expected to be a hurricane when it makes
landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from NOAA
and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62
inches).
大家無謂再欺騙自己地說出面一切正常,我想,大家是時候停一停,面對我們見到的現實。
Keep Calm and Carry On
Let’s party like it’s 1793
歡迎大家到煮酒版討論天下事
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部