颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[WP]TCFA - 台湾以东热带低压TD14(98W) - JMA:GW - 形单影只,求名梦碎,掠过琉球,并入锋面

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-09-03 14:14
98W INVEST 180903 0600 14.0N 137.2E WPAC 15 1010

图片:20180903.0550.himawari-8.vis.98W.INVEST.15kts.998mb.14N.137E.100pc.jpg

[327于2018-09-08 17:00编辑了帖子]
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    98W
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    98W
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    98W
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红豆棒冰冰
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1楼#
发布于:2018-09-04 11:13
JMA:LPA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 136E ALMOST STATIONARY.

图片:18090409.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-09-04 11:14编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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2楼#
发布于:2018-09-04 13:44
JTWC:LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZSEP2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZSEP2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 040000Z, TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N
133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.2N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 528 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED CONVECTION,
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 032123Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
THE DISORGANIZED AND WEAK CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH WEAK BUT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GFS,
NAVGEM, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW 98W DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE MOST
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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xiaorain1
热带低压
热带低压
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3楼#
发布于:2018-09-05 09:34
gfs预报不看好发展,是因为即将到来的强冷,会扼杀之?
另外,300小时预报有一个强台风过对马海峡。
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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4楼#
发布于:2018-09-05 10:15
JMA:TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 20N 133E WNW SLOWLY.

图片:18090509.png

[327于2018-09-05 10:30编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
台风
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5楼#
发布于:2018-09-05 12:16
TPPN12 PGTW 050315
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (SE OF OKINAWA)
B. 05/0250Z
C. 20.46N
D. 132.40E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 51NM FROM
LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT YIELD 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   VEERKAMP
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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6楼#
发布于:2018-09-05 13:30
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 136.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY
628 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A 040918Z 37GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN CLOUD BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH WEAK BUT DEVELOPING POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GFS, NAVGEM, AND ECMWF
ALL SHOW 98W DEVELOPING SLIGHTLY AND TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 136.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY
451 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. A PARTIAL 042109Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS POCKETS
OF FLARING CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS MARGINAL AND
THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL MODELS SHOW
98W TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WITH
WEAK DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

图片:050515abpwsair.jpg

[327于2018-09-05 13:45编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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发布于:2018-09-05 14:54
PGTW:T1.5
TPPN12 PGTW 050618
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (SE OF OKINAWA)
B. 05/0600Z
C. 20.42N
D. 131.89E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 36NM FROM
LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT YIELD 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 LOWE

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

图片:avn_lalo-animated.gif

[颱風巨爵于2018-09-05 15:00编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
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8楼#
发布于:2018-09-05 22:36
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051400Z-060600ZSEP2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.3N 133.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY
353 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A PARTIAL 051004Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC AND A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS LESSENED (5 TO 10 KNOTS), ALLOWING THE
LLCC TO BEGIN TO TUCK UNDER THE CONVECTION. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
GOOD BUT THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW 98W TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MINOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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feidele
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发布于:2018-09-05 22:57
有小概率混名
费德勒 伟大的运动员
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