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[AL]小安的列斯群岛以东一级飓风“艾萨克”(09L.Isaac) - 稳定西行,促成北大三飓共舞

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-09-04 02:29
92L INVEST 180903 1800  10.8N   18.5W ATL   25  1005

图片:20180903.1800.msg-4.vis.92L.INVEST.25kts.1005mb.10.8N.18.5W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png



1. A tropical wave located more than 400 miles southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this disturbance is
possible during the next several days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-09-18 13:33编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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1楼#
发布于:2018-09-04 07:23
NHC:10%/50%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean and
on Tropical Storm Gordon, located just off the coast of
southwestern Florida.

1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is
expected, and it could become a tropical depression late this week
or this weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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2楼#
发布于:2018-09-04 21:27
NHC:20%/70%
1. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system located
a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
forecast to move slowly westward to west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days. Although this
disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by late this week or this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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3楼#
发布于:2018-09-05 06:44
NHC:30%/80%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Florence, located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Gordon, located over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico more than 100 miles southeast of the Mississippi
coast.

1. A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move slowly westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic for the next
several days. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late this week or this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Bann/Stewart

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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4楼#
发布于:2018-09-05 12:28
NHC:40%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located a short distance south of the Alabama coast.

1. A broad area of low pressure with disorganized cloudiness and
showers is centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by the end of the week while the system moves west-
northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the coast of west Africa
in a few days.  Some development of the system is possible over the
weekend while the wave moves westward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-09-05 12:32编辑了帖子]
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5楼#
发布于:2018-09-05 19:53
NHC:50%/90%
1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week
while the system moves west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-05 19:57编辑了帖子]
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6楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 07:46
NHC:70%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located over north-central Mississippi.

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is gradually becoming better organized.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be increasingly conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday.  Some development of this system is anticipated after
that time, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or
early next week while the wave moves westward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public Advisories on Gordon are issued by the Weather Prediction
Center under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the
web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-09-06 07:47编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 09:41
TCFA
WTNT21 KNGU 051800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 27.8W
TO 14.2N 32.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 28.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS.
2. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
250NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED BY THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND ARE BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 061800Z.//

图片:al9218.png

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8楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 20:06
NHC:70%/90%
1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is centered several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in
organization since yesterday, and there are no indications yet that
the system has a well-defined center of circulation.  However,
environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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9楼#
发布于:2018-09-07 08:50
NHC:80%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Gordon, located over Arkansas.

1. An area of low pressure centered about 500 miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is gradually becoming better defined, although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has not yet increased
much in organization.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
within the next day or two while the system moves slowly westward
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A tropical wave and an accompanying low pressure system near the
west coast of Africa is producing a large area of thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the
weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Interests in the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this system, and potential
tropical cyclone advisories could be issued on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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