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论坛版主-副热带高压
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[EP]墨西哥西南热带风暴“保罗”(18E.Paul) - 迅速北上,发展受限

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更多 发布于:2018-09-06 07:25
92E INVEST 180905 1800  13.5N  107.0W EPAC   20  1008

图片:20180906.0000.goes15.x.ir1km_bw.92EINVEST.20kts-1008mb-135N-1070W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png



1. A broad area of low pressure is centered about 350 miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The shower activity associated
with this low has increased a little during the past several hours
and the upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for
development.  A tropical depression could form by late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly toward
the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-09-12 18:09编辑了帖子]
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    09-06 08:00
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炎煌深沉
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1楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 20:02
NHC:30%/70%
1. A broad area of low pressure is centered a few hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  The shower activity associated
with this low is gradually becoming better organized, and
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for continued
development.  A tropical depression is likely to form by late this
weekend or early next week
while the system moves slowly toward
the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png



图片:avn-animated.gif

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-06 20:25编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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2楼#
发布于:2018-09-07 08:47
NHC:50%/80%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 6 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Olivia, located a little more than 1200 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. The broad area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking for a
few days is now located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of Baja California peninsula. Although the shower activity has
not become any better organized during the past few hours,
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development. A
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend or early next
week while the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest at
about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Avila

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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3楼#
发布于:2018-09-07 14:08
NHC:50%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 6 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Olivia, located a little more than 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. The broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  However,
environmental conditions are expected be conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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4楼#
发布于:2018-09-07 19:54
NHC:60%/90%
1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are expected be conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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5楼#
发布于:2018-09-07 20:21
TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 071230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N 108.5W TO 15.4N 114.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 109.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.5N 109.0W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070837Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GSM, FORECAST INTENSIFICATION TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY LIKELY AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081230Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9218.gif

图片:92E_071230sair.jpg



WTPN21 PHNC 071230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 111.6W TO 17.4N 118.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 112.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.5N 109.0W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070837Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GSM, FORECAST INTENSIFICATION TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY LIKELY AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081230Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9218.gif

图片:92E_071230sair.jpg



WTPN21 PHNC 071230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071221Z SEP 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 071230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 111.6W TO 17.4N 118.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 112.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0N 112.3W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070837Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GSM, FORECAST INTENSIFICATION TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY LIKELY AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081230Z.//
NNNN
[炎煌深沉于2018-09-07 21:16编辑了帖子]
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6楼#
发布于:2018-09-08 07:41
NHC:70%/90%
1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are expected be conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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7楼#
发布于:2018-09-08 14:27
NHC:90%/90%
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become better organized today.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or
so while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, away from the
coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-08 14:28编辑了帖子]
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8楼#
发布于:2018-09-08 20:41
NHC:100%/100%
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization,
and it appears that a tropical depression could be forming.  If
this trend continues, then advisories would be initiated on this
system later today.
 The low is expected to move northwestward at
about 10 mph during the next couple of days, away from the coast of
Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-08 20:43编辑了帖子]
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9楼#
发布于:2018-09-08 21:16
第2报TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 081200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071221Z SEP 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
071230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8N 114.8W TO 20.5N 120.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9N 115.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 109.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.4W, APPROXIMATELY
303 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
INVEST 92E. A PARTIAL 080846Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND
MOSTLY EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT INVEST 92E WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INVEST 92E WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091200Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9218.gif

图片:92E_081230sair.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-08 21:21编辑了帖子]
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