9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[WP]1823号强热带风暴“百里嘉”(27W.Barijat) - 环流细小沿岸西行,13日8时30分登陆湛江

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-09-06 11:29
90W INVEST 180906 0000 13.3N 119.0E WPAC 15 0

图片:20180906.0320.hm8.x.vis1km.90WINVEST.15kts-133N-1190E.100pc.jpg


[9914dan于2018-09-13 21:03编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +5 威望 +5
  • 327
    威望 5
    90W
    09-06 11:45
  • 327
    金钱 5
    90W
    09-06 11:45
喜欢5 评分2
I wanna reset.
禾愛糖
超强台风
超强台风
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1楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 12:28
EC預計90W先東北或東北偏北移至呂宋東面海域後,去到巴士海峽增強,然後開始西移登陸華南
成為第一個華南秋颱
Practice makes perfect.
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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2楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 13:40
JTWC:LOW
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.6N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060149Z 89GHZ MHS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL POCKETS
OF SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION. A 060110Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 5-10 KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
PHILIPPINES BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO IF AND WHEN THE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP FURTHER. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT AFTER THE SYSTEM
EMERGES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA IT WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD AND
INTENSIFY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:060500abpwsair.jpg

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红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
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3楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 14:07
GFS 2018090600z预报登陆台湾南部,气压953hPa左右

图片:gfs_z500_mslp_wpac_fh0-180.gif

欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
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禾愛糖
超强台风
超强台风
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4楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 14:47
EC這報稍為北調與調強
後期仍然報出有西南偏西路徑
Practice makes perfect.
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歆中思语
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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5楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 18:05
集合平均是粤西一带,当然gfs和ec存在一定分歧
没有风的日子,我的世界一片沉寂。没有你的岁月,我的生活一片死灰。
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我愛膠
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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6楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 19:45
看到在转动了,不知道福建浙江一带能否再吃一个
膠們,請歸位吧!
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shadow
强台风
强台风
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7楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 20:56
EC集成路徑
一年之計在於春
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炎煌深沉
台风
台风
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8楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 21:18
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 119.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY
115 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060758Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHALLOW FLARING
CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN CONVECTION LOCATED OVER LAND IN THE
PHILIPPINES. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS
TO IF AND WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FURTHER. SOME MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT AFTER THE SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA IT WILL
BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
[炎煌深沉于2018-09-06 21:22编辑了帖子]
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禾愛糖
超强台风
超强台风
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9楼#
发布于:2018-09-06 21:30
shadow锛欵C集成路徑鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
EC這報集合似乎比較極端...直接分成兩派,粵東閩南與粵西海南雞派
Practice makes perfect.
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