颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝61
  • 关注1
  • 发帖数430
  • 来自
阅读:2340回复:33

[AL]佛得角西北二级飓风“海伦”(08L.Helene) - 洋中北上,影响亚速尔群岛 - NHC:95KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-09-07 03:31
93L INVEST 180906 1800  13.0N   16.0W ATL   20  1007

图片:20180906.1845.msg4.x.ir1km_bw.93LINVEST.20kts-1007mb-130N-160W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_atl_2d2.png

图片:two_atl_5d2.png



2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday.  Development of this system is anticipated after that
time, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early
next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward over
the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.  Interests in the Cabo
Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-09-17 03:06编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
喜欢0 评分2
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝34
  • 关注37
  • 发帖数971
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2018-09-07 08:53
NHC:70%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Gordon, located over Arkansas.

1. An area of low pressure centered about 500 miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is gradually becoming better defined, although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has not yet increased
much in organization.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
within the next day or two while the system moves slowly westward
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A tropical wave and an accompanying low pressure system near the
west coast of Africa is producing a large area of thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the
weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Interests in the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this system, and potential
tropical cyclone advisories could be issued on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d2.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d2.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝34
  • 关注37
  • 发帖数971
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2018-09-07 14:16
NHC:80%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Gordon, located over Arkansas.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure centered about 500 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands has
become a little more concentrated over the past couple of hours, but
recent satellite data show that this system is still fairly broad
and elongated.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next day or so while the system moves slowly westward across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
tropical wave and accompanying low pressure system near the west
coast of Africa.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form later today or over the weekend while the wave moves
westward or west-northwestward over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor
the progress of this system, and advisories on a potential tropical
cyclone or tropical depression could be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d2.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d2.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
hnwfnhee
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2005-12-31
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝98
  • 关注18
  • 发帖数9522
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2018-09-07 14:19
大西洋这是怎么了?想复制05年吗?
来自温岭偏僻农村的野夫
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
MTWP
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2018-05-12
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝11
  • 关注4
  • 发帖数347
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2018-09-07 14:25
TCFA
WTPN22 PGTW 062130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060221Z SEP 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 060230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 170.7E TO 13.6N 163.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
062100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
169.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 173.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 169.6E, APPROXIMATELY
239 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, RMI. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE FEEDER BANDS
FAST CONSOLIDATING. A 061902Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTS
THE FORMATIVE BANDS AND A WELL-DEFINED LLC FEATURE, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL TOWARD A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-31 CELSIUS ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072130Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.6E.//
NNNN

图片:al9318.png

眩しさだけは、忘れなかった。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2018-05-02
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝27
  • 关注19
  • 发帖数719
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2018-09-07 19:46
NHC:90%/90%
2. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located just off the west
coast of Africa.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form later today or tonight
while the low moves westward or
west-northwestward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d2.png

图片:two_atl_5d2.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-07 19:48编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝34
  • 关注37
  • 发帖数971
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2018-09-08 00:14
NHC首报上望60KT
616
WTNT43 KNHC 071437
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure that moved off the west coast of Africa has developed a
closed circulation that appears to be well defined. However, the
convective organization, given Dvorak classifications of only T1.0,
do not support calling the system a tropical cyclone at this point.
However, given that the system is expected to be a tropical storm
near the southern Cabo Verde Islands in 36 to 48 hours, advisories
are being initiated on this system as a potential tropical cyclone
at this time, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for those
islands.

Environmental conditions of light to moderate easterly shear and
SSTs of 27-28C should support development of this system, and the
NHC forecast shows it becoming a tropical storm by 12 hours.
Gradual strengthening is indicated by the bulk of the intensity
guidance through the next 3-4 days. After that time, the shear is
forecast to increase and the system will be moving into somewhat
cooler waters, so some weakening is expected by day 5. The NHC
forecast is close to the latest HCCA guidance and a little higher
than the IVCN consensus.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 275/09 given
that the surface circulation is just forming. The synoptic pattern
over the eastern Atlantic features a ridge to the north of the
disturbance, which is expected to weaken by the end of the period.
This steering pattern should result in a westward to west-
northwestward motion for the next 72 hours with an increase in
forward speed, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a
slightly more poleward motion as the system responds to the weakness
in the ridge. The initial NHC track forecast is close to the latest
HCCA track consensus aid and near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 13.1N  17.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  08/0000Z 13.3N  18.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  08/1200Z 13.8N  20.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 14.2N  22.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 14.6N  25.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 16.0N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 18.0N  37.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 20.0N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

图片:143914_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png



图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[颱風巨爵于2018-09-08 00:15编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-31
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝128
  • 关注58
  • 发帖数3955
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2018-09-08 05:00
413
WTNT43 KNHC 072046
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located just west of the coast of Africa has
developed into a tropical depression.  Conventional satellite
imagery shows a well-defined convective band has formed near the
center, and microwave satellite imagery has hinted at the formation
of an inner ring of convection.  The initial intensity of 30 kt
and the central pressure of 1002 mb are based on surface
observations from ships and the west coast of Africa. The depression
currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions.

The initial motion is 275/9.  During the next 3-4 days, the cyclone
should move generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward
speed on the south side of the subtropical ridge over the eastern
Atlantic.  Near the end of the forecast period, a developing mid- to
upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to weaken
the ridge and allow the cyclone to turn northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed.  There is some spread in the guidance
late in the period, with the UKMET and the Canadian models showing
an earlier turn than the other models.   The new forecast track,
which is similar to the previous track, is in best agreement with
the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

The depression is in an environment of light to moderate easterly
vertical shear and over sea surface temperatures of 27-28C.  This
should allow at least steady strengthening, and rapid strengthening
is possible based on the hints of the inner core in microwave
imagery.  This portion of the intensity forecast has been increased
to the upper edge of the intensity guidance, with the cyclone
forecast to become a tropical storm in 12 h or less and a hurricane
between 48-72 h.  After 72 h, the system should be over sea surface
temperatures near 26C and encountering southwesterly vertical shear
due to the aforementioned trough.  This should cause at least a
gradual weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 13.2N  18.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 13.5N  19.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 13.9N  21.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 14.4N  24.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 14.9N  27.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 16.5N  33.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 18.0N  38.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 20.5N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

图片:205602_5day_cone_with_line.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2018-05-02
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝27
  • 关注19
  • 发帖数719
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2018-09-08 10:46
命名Helene
NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS Florence, TS Helene and TD Nine

187
WTNT43 KNHC 080244
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

A very timely ASCAT pass indicated that the winds associated with
the depression have increased to 35 kt,
and also that the center was
a little east of the location previously indicated. This is very
common in systems during the formative stage.  Based on the ASCAT
data, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene, the
eighth named storm of the season.
The satellite presentation has
also improved during the past several hours, and now the cyclone has
large cyclonically curved convective bands to the south of the
center. The outflow is fair in all quadrants.


Helene will be moving over warm waters and within an environment
of light shear through the next 3 to 4 days, and most of the
guidance responds to that environment by gradually strengthening the
cyclone. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the intensity
consensus, and brings Helene to hurricane intensity in about 3 days.

Currently, Helene is embedded within a southwest monsoon-type flow,
and is moving toward the west at about 9 or 10 knots. However, as
the cyclone moves away from the African coast, it will become
steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge and should
then increase in forward speed. Most of the track models are in
extremely good agreement, at least for the next 3 days when the
confidence in the forecast is high. At the long range, a mid-level
trough is expected to develop over the central Atlantic, forcing the
cyclone to turn more to the northwest and even north later on. The
NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and basically
on top of the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 13.6N  18.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 13.8N  19.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 14.3N  22.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 14.8N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 15.4N  28.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 17.0N  33.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 18.5N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 20.5N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

图片:024610_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png



图片:WMBas124.png

图片:goes16_vis-swir_08L_201809080235.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-09-08 19:00编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
桑美和伊欧凯
资深会员-热带辐合带
资深会员-热带辐合带
  • 注册日期2006-11-10
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝270
  • 关注282
  • 发帖数16414
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2018-09-08 13:51
上一世的海伦从大西洋中部减弱成低压区,一直续到墨西哥湾才显著增强。还好没被除名
最新台风动向

欢迎加入{气象乐园}群55541191
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部