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[WP]1822号热带气旋“山竹”(26W.Mangkhut)机构发报专帖

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更多 发布于:2018-09-07 05:38
WTPN22 PGTW 062130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060221Z SEP 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 060230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 170.7E TO 13.6N 163.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
062100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
169.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 173.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 169.6E, APPROXIMATELY
239 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, RMI. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE FEEDER BANDS
FAST CONSOLIDATING. A 061902Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTS
THE FORMATIVE BANDS AND A WELL-DEFINED LLC FEATURE, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL TOWARD A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-31 CELSIUS ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072130Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.6E.//
NNNN

图片:wp9918.gif

图片:99W_062130sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-09-07 09:30
JTWC/26W/#01/09-07 00Z
WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 168.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 168.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 12.8N 165.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 13.3N 163.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 13.7N 160.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 13.7N 157.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 13.0N 151.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 12.8N 147.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 14.3N 143.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 167.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, RMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp262018.20180907012106.gif

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发布于:2018-09-07 10:40
JTWC/26W/#01/09-07 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216
NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, RMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING DISTURBANCE WITH OVERSHOOTING
TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. FORMATIVE BANDS,
ALBEIT SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED, ARE CLEARLY SPIRALING INTO A WEAK BUT
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE LLC FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 20 KNOTS IS BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD
CHANNEL TOWARD A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30-32 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARD, IT WILL FLATTEN
TO A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STR BUILDS. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL PREVAIL AND PROMOTE A
HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION; BY TAU 72, AT
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF GUAM, TD 26W WILL REACH 75 KNOTS.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 26W WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD UP TO
TAU 96. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
STEERING STR IS WEAKENED BY A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER GUAM SHORTLY AFTER TAU 108. AN INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONCURRENT WITH THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK, IN ADDITION
TO THE SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WILL FUEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 120, TD 26W WILL REACH SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY AT 135 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TOWARD THE EXTENDED TAUS. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE INITIAL ERRATIC MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
CYCLONES, THERE IS - FOR NOW - LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

图片:26W_070000sair.jpg

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MTWP
强热带风暴
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发布于:2018-09-07 15:03
JMA/TD-a/09-07 06Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年09月07日16時05分 発表

图片:a-01.png


<07日15時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
熱帯低気圧
存在地域マーシャル諸島
中心位置北緯 12度10分(12.2度)
東経 166度20分(166.3度)
進行方向、速さ西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速23m/s(45kt)

<08日03時の予報>
強さ-
熱帯低気圧
存在地域マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心北緯 13度20分(13.3度)
東経 163度50分(163.8度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径110km(60NM)

<08日15時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心北緯 14度05分(14.1度)
東経 160度55分(160.9度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧998hPa
中心付近の最大風速18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径200km(110NM)
[MTWP于2018-09-07 17:54编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-09-07 16:00
JTWC/26W/#02/09-07 06Z
WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z --- NEAR 12.4N 166.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 166.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 12.9N 164.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 13.4N 161.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 13.7N 158.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 13.6N 155.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 13.1N 149.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 13.4N 145.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 14.9N 140.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 166.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF UTIRIK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp262018.20180907075348.gif

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发布于:2018-09-07 16:40
JTWC/26W/#02/09-07 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
185 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF UTIRIK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BY FOLLOWING SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI). ADDITIONALLY, A 070450Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
(KTS) IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES OF 25
KTS. TD 26W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE (30-31 CELSIUS). THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STEERING TD 26W GENERALLY WESTWARD. FOR THIS PERIOD, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH A TIGHTLY GROUPED COLLECTION OF MODEL TRACKS.
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD AND TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSITY FASTER THAN THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, REACHING 80 KTS BY TAU 72, A RATE THAT IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON A SPREAD OF
140 NM AT TAU 72, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS GOOD FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE STR TO RE-
ORIENT AND TD 26W WILL TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER, OR VERY CLOSE TO GUAM, AROUND TAU
96 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 110 KTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THE
TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK. AROUND TAU 72, THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE AS HWRF MAINTAINS THE
INTENSITY AT 115 KTS WHILE COAMPS-GFS AND COAMPS-NAVGEM CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO 135 KTS BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST
INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE MORE INTENSE COAMPS-GFS AND COAMPS-NAVGEM
SOLUTIONS. DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACKS PORTRAYED BY THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS FAIR DUE
TO RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION.//
NNNN

图片:26W_070600sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-09-07 18:18
JMA/TD-a/09-07 09Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年09月07日19時20分 発表

<07日18時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
中心位置        北緯 12度30分(12.5度)
東経 166度05分(166.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<08日06時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 13度30分(13.5度)
東経 163度25分(163.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<08日18時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 14度05分(14.1度)
東経 160度10分(160.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:070900-zooml-a-01.png

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发布于:2018-09-07 21:17
JMA/1822/09-07 12Z
台風第22号 (マンクット)
平成30年09月07日22時15分 発表

图片:1822-00.png


<07日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
中心位置        北緯 12度55分(12.9度)
東経 165度20分(165.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 280km(150NM)

<08日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 13度35分(13.6度)
東経 162度35分(162.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        70km(40NM)

<08日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 14度10分(14.2度)
東経 159度10分(159.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西 30km/h(17kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<09日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        トラック諸島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 13度35分(13.6度)
東経 152度20分(152.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西 30km/h(17kt)
中心気圧        990hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

<10日21時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 13度00分(13.0度)
東経 146度25分(146.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        975hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径        260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 330km(180NM)

图片:1822-00 (1).png


<11日21時の予報>
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 13度25分(13.4度)
東経 143度10分(143.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西 15km/h(8kt)
予報円の半径 370km(200NM)

<12日21時の予報>
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 15度10分(15.2度)
東経 140度10分(140.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h(9kt)
予報円の半径 540km(290NM)
[t02436于2018-09-07 21:38编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-09-07 21:34
CMA/1822/09-07 12Z
ZCZC
WSCI40 BABJ 071200
TO BCSY BCHK BCSH BCCD BCGZ
BETY BEXA BETJ BESZ BEJN BEZZ BEBJ
2053 0669 1417 0143 2456 (12.9) 9887 9976
(165.3) 9878 4104 3583 1601 3049 2467 2456
9907 9812 9899 7030 1193 4882 3634 4574
(1822) 5714 3583 1601 3049 2467 9975
BABJ/3049 9709 9907 9812 =
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180907200000043.JPG


ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 071200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS MANGKHUT 1822 (1822) INITIAL TIME 071200 UTC
00HR 12.9N 165.3E 1000HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 250KM NORTHEAST
150KM SOUTHEAST
150KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 28KM/H
P+12HR 13.7N 162.0E 995HPA 20M/S
P+24HR 14.0N 159.1E 990HPA 23M/S
P+36HR 13.9N 155.7E 985HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 13.7N 152.1E 982HPA 28M/S
P+60HR 13.1N 148.7E 980HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 12.3N 145.7E 970HPA 35M/S
P+96HR 11.9N 141.9E 965HPA 38M/S
P+120HR 13.2N 138.5E 955HPA 42M/S=
NNNN
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发布于:2018-09-07 21:38
JTWC/26W/#03/09-07 12Z

图片:wp2618.png


WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 12.8N 165.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 165.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 13.3N 162.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 13.7N 159.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 13.9N 156.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 13.8N 153.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 13.3N 147.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 13.7N 143.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 15.5N 139.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 164.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z.//
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[MTWP于2018-09-07 21:56编辑了帖子]
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