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发布于:2018-09-09 16:50
JTWC/26W/#10/09-09 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TY 26W IS CONTINUING A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND,
INTENSIFYING FROM 40 TO 75 KTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, ALTHOUGH SOME DRY AIR HAS ENTRAINED INTO
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 090541Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS), AND
IN AGREEMENT WITH A 090540Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT HAS DISRUPTED THE ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION IN THE
SYSTEM, LEADING TO MORE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, SST
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. TY 26W IS TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED, STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS CONTINUE TO BE UNUSUALLY
FAST (AND UNDERFORECAST BY THE MODELS) LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT GUAM CPA.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STEERING 26W GENERALLY WESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 77 NM AT TAU 24 NEAR ROTA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND COAMPS-NAVGEM WHICH ARE THE NORTHERN
OUTLIERS, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 12 AS 26W APPROACHES GUAM DUE TO A RE-
ORIENTATION OF THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG OVER WESTERN JAPAN. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND A TIGHT GROUPING OF THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS PASSES OVER ROTA
JUST AFTER TAU 24. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO REFLECT FASTER-THAN-PREDICTED
FORWARD STORM MOTION, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE CPA TO GUAM BEING
SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS NOW
EXPECTED TO BE MORE GRADUAL, WITH 26W REACHING 110 KTS BY TAU 36 AND
120 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TO SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72. HWRF PREDICTS A MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM, WHILE COAMPS-GFS AND COAMPS-NAVGEM
SHOW FASTER INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72. THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW A NORTHWARD
COMPONENT IN THE STORM MOTION. TRACK SPREAD IS 365 NM AT TAU 120.
ECMWF IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER, AND THE JAPANESE MODEL JGSM AND JGSM
ENSEMBLE ARE THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS, SHOWING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. THE DEGREE OF NORTHWARD MOTION DEPENDS ON HOW EACH MODEL
TREATS THE STR. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSITY IS
FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 120.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 72,
EVEN EXCEEDING THE CURRENT FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KTS AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS FAIR IN THE LATE TERM BASED ON THE INCREASING SPREAD IN
MODEL TRACKS AFTER TAU 96.//
NNNN

图片:26W_090600sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-09-09 17:38
CMA/1822/09-09 09Z
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 090900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MANGKHUT 1822 (1822) INITIAL TIME 090900 UTC
00HR 15.2N 152.1E 970HPA 35M/S
30KTS WINDS 250KM NORTHEAST
150KM SOUTHEAST
150KM SOUTHWEST
250KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 90KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
90KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
30KM SOUTHEAST
30KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 35KM/H
P+12HR 14.8N 148.2E 955HPA 42M/S
P+24HR 14.3N 144.9E 940HPA 50M/S
P+36HR 13.9N 142.2E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 13.9N 139.8E 925HPA 58M/S
P+60HR 14.1N 137.2E 915HPA 62M/S
P+72HR 14.2N 134.9E 915HPA 62M/S
P+96HR 15.0N 130.4E 910HPA 65M/S
P+120HR 17.2N 125.5E 910HPA 65M/S=
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180909170000042.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-09 17:45编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-09-09 17:43
JMA/1822/09-09 09Z
台風第22号 (マンクット)
平成30年09月09日18時45分 発表

<09日18時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ 強い
存在地域 トラック諸島近海
中心位置 北緯 15度05分(15.1度)
東経 152度05分(152.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西 35km/h(20kt)
中心気圧 975hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速 50m/s(95kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域 全域 110km(60NM)
15m/s以上の強風域 全域 330km(180NM)

<10日06時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 14度40分(14.7度)
東経 148度30分(148.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧 965hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 70km(40NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 200km(110NM)

<10日18時の予報>
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 14度10分(14.2度)
東経 145度25分(145.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 940hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速 65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 280km(150NM)

<11日15時の予報>
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 14度05分(14.1度)
東経 140度50分(140.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 925hPa
中心付近の最大風速 50m/s(100kt)
最大瞬間風速 70m/s(140kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 410km(220NM)

<12日15時の予報>
強さ 猛烈な
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 14度40分(14.7度)
東経 136度00分(136.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 905hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速 80m/s(155kt)
予報円の半径 260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 500km(270NM)

图片:1822-00.png


<13日15時の予報>
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 15度55分(15.9度)
東経 131度20分(131.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(12kt)
予報円の半径 370km(200NM)

<14日15時の予報>
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 17度55分(17.9度)
東経 126度25分(126.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(13kt)
予報円の半径 540km(290NM)

图片:1822-00.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-09 17:46编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-09-09 17:58
CMA/1822/台风公报/09-09 18:00
台 风 预 报
预报:孙舒悦  签发:许映龙   2018 年  09 月  09 日  18 时
台风“山竹”明天将掠过美国关岛

一、“山竹”位于关岛以东洋面

今年第22号台风“山竹”(MANGKHUT)的中心今天(9日)下午5点钟位于美国关岛以东大约810公里的西北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.2度、东经152.1度,中心附近最大风力12级(35米/秒),中心最低气压970百帕,七级风圈半径150-250公里,十级风圈半径60-90公里,十二级风圈半径30-50公里。

二、“山竹”明天将掠过美国关岛

预计,“山竹”将以每小时35公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度继续加强,明天傍晚前后将掠过美国关岛(强台风级或超强台风级,14-16级,45-52米/秒);之后继续向偏西方向移动,最强可达超强台风级(17级以上,62-68米/秒),并逐渐向菲律宾吕宋岛东北部一带沿海靠近。

由于“山竹”掠过关岛前后强度强、且移速快,明天白天开始,关岛及其附近海域将出现强烈风雨天气,请过往船只注意航行安全。

未来四天,“山竹”对我国海域暂无影响。

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_P9_20180909100002400_XML_1.png

图1 今年第22号台风“山竹”未来120小时路径概率预报图
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发布于:2018-09-09 20:14
CMA/1822/09-09 12Z
ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 091200
CCAA 09120 99398 11165
MANGKHUT 22152 11512 12334 240// 92718
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 091200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MANGKHUT 1822 (1822) INITIAL TIME 091200 UTC
00HR 15.2N 151.2E 970HPA 35M/S
30KTS WINDS 350KM NORTHEAST
150KM SOUTHEAST
150KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 90KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
90KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
30KM SOUTHEAST
30KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 35KM/H
P+12HR 14.6N 147.4E 955HPA 42M/S
P+24HR 14.1N 144.4E 940HPA 50M/S
P+36HR 13.9N 141.7E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 13.9N 139.3E 925HPA 58M/S
P+60HR 14.1N 136.8E 915HPA 62M/S
P+72HR 14.1N 134.5E 915HPA 62M/S
P+96HR 15.4N 129.9E 910HPA 65M/S
P+120HR 17.6N 124.9E 910HPA 65M/S=
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180909200000042.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-09 20:31编辑了帖子]
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台风
台风
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发布于:2018-09-09 20:40
JMA/1822/09-09 12Z
台風第22号 (マンクット)
平成30年09月09日21時45分 発表
 

图片:1822-00.png


<09日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ 強い
存在地域 トラック諸島近海
中心位置 北緯 15度05分(15.1度)
 東経 151度25分(151.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西 30km/h(17kt)
中心気圧 970hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速 50m/s(100kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域 全域 110km(60NM)
15m/s以上の強風域 全域 330km(180NM)
 
<10日09時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 14度35分(14.6度)
 東経 147度50分(147.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧 955hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速 60m/s(115kt)
予報円の半径 70km(40NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 200km(110NM)
 
<10日21時の予報>
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 14度20分(14.3度)
 東経 145度00分(145.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 940hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速 65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 280km(150NM)
 
<11日21時の予報>
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 14度10分(14.2度)
 東経 139度10分(139.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 925hPa
中心付近の最大風速 50m/s(100kt)
最大瞬間風速 70m/s(140kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 410km(220NM)
 
<12日21時の予報>
強さ 猛烈な
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 14度40分(14.7度)
 東経 134度10分(134.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 905hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速 80m/s(155kt)
予報円の半径 260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 500km(270NM)

图片:1822-00.png



<13日21時の予報>
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 15度55分(15.9度)
 東経 129度25分(129.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(12kt)
予報円の半径 370km(200NM)
 
<14日21時の予報>
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 18度20分(18.3度)
 東経 124度30分(124.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(13kt)
予報円の半径 540km(290NM)
[MTWP于2018-09-09 20:50编辑了帖子]
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できない私ですが、くり返さない。
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发布于:2018-09-09 21:00
KMA/1822/09-09 12Z
No.22 MANGKHUT
Issued at(KST) : 2018.09.09. 22:00
Date(UTC)PositionCentral Pressure (hPa)Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km)IntensityScaleMoving DirectionMoving Speed(km/h)Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/skm/h
2018.09.09. 12:00 Analysis15.1151.497035126270
(SSW 220)
StrongSmallW29
2018.09.10. 12:00 Forecast14.0144.895043155300
(SSW 240)
StrongMediumW30110
2018.09.11. 12:00 Forecast14.1139.394047169320
(SSW 260)
Very StrongMediumW25170
2018.09.12. 12:00 Forecast15.6134.892551184350
(SSW 280)
Very StrongMediumWNW22250
2018.09.13. 12:00 Forecast17.2130.692053191380
(SW 300)
Very StrongMediumWNW20330
2018.09.14. 12:00 Forecast18.7126.392053191400
(WSW 300)
Very StrongMediumWNW20450


图片:RTKO63_201809092200]22_en.png

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发布于:2018-09-09 21:50
JTWC/26W/#11/09-09 12Z
WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 011    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 150.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 150.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 14.7N 147.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 14.3N 143.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 14.3N 141.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 14.4N 138.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 15.6N 133.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 17.0N 128.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 18.8N 123.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            265 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 149.9E.
TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp262018.20180909133755.gif

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发布于:2018-09-09 22:15
JTWC/26W/#11/09-09 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
RESURGENT DEEP CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A 091113Z AMSU
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS THE STRENGTHENING CONVECTION. TY
26W HAS INTENSIFIED GRADUALLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, REACHING AN
INTENSITY OF 75 KTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS BETWEEN THE
KNES AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (90 KTS),
THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS), AND A 091112Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
70 KTS, BASED ON THE RE-FORMING ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, CONDUCIVE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TY 26W IS TRACKING QUICKLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD, ONLY 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF DUE WEST, ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED, STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS CONTINUE TO BE UNUSUALLY
FAST (AND UNDERFORECAST BY THE MODELS) LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE GUAM CPA.
   B. THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING 26W WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, SHOWING 26W PASSING BETWEEN ROTA AND SAIPAN JUST
BEFORE TAU 24, WITH A 55 NM NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AT TAU 24. NAVGEM IS
THE NORTHERN OUTLIER, AND DOES NOT DEPICT ANY SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO
THE TRACK BEFORE 26W PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS
MODELS HAVE FAILED TO CAPTURE THE CONSISTENTLY FAST STORM FORWARD
MOTION, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE CPA TO GUAM BEING SOONER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED, WITH 26W
REACHING 110 KTS AT TAU 36 AND 120 KTS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TY
26W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72.
MESOSCALE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, WITH HWRF NOW UNREALISTICALLY FLATTENING
THE INTENSITY OUT AROUND 105 KTS AFTER TAU 12, COAMPS-NAVGEM SHOWING
STRONG INTENSIFICATION TO SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 48, AND
COAMPS-GFS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION TO OVER 130 KTS LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW A NORTHWARD
COMPONENT IN THE STORM MOTION. TRACK SPREAD IS 340 NM AT TAU 120.
GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE ARE NOW THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS, WHILE ECMWF,
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND COAMPS-NAVGEM ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS
AFTER TAU 72 BECAUSE THEY MAINTAIN A MORE ROBUST STR DESPITE THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER JAPAN. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE,
REACHING 135 KTS BY TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, ALTHOUGH COAMPS-NAVGEM AND COAMPS-GFS DO
STILL PREDICT 26W REACHING WINDS SPEEDS OVER 130 KTS AFTER TAU 72.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS FAIR IN THE LATE
TERM BASED ON THE INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKS AFTER TAU 96.//
NNNN

图片:26W_091200sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-09-09 22:15
CWB/1822/09-09 12Z
中度颱風 編號第22號
國際命名  MANGKHUT  中文譯名  山竹

》現況
2018年09月09日20時
      中心位置 北緯 15.10 度 東經 151.10 度
      過去移動方向   西
      過去移動時速   34 公里
      中心氣壓   970 百帕
      近中心最大風速 35 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 43 公尺/秒
      七級風半徑120公里 十級風半徑50公里
》預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
     西 時速 32 公里
     預測 09月10日08時
     中心在 北緯 14.70 度 東經 147.50 度
     中心氣壓   958 百帕
     近中心最大風速 38 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 48 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑150公里 十級風半徑50公里
     70%機率半徑 50 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
     西 時速 27 公里
     預測 09月10日20時
     中心在 北緯 14.20 度 東經 144.50 度
     中心氣壓   945 百帕
     近中心最大風速 43 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 53 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑180公里 十級風半徑50公里
     70%機率半徑 100 公里
預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
     西 時速 23 公里
     預測 09月11日20時
     中心在 北緯 13.70 度 東經 139.20 度
     中心氣壓   925 百帕
     近中心最大風速 51 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 63 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑250公里 十級風半徑80公里
     70%機率半徑 170 公里
預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
     西 時速 21 公里
     預測 09月12日20時
     中心在 北緯 13.80 度 東經 134.60 度
     中心氣壓   912 百帕
     近中心最大風速 55 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 68 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑280公里 十級風半徑100公里
     70%機率半徑 240 公里
預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 20 公里
     預測 09月13日20時
     中心在 北緯 14.80 度 東經 130.30 度
     中心氣壓   910 百帕
     近中心最大風速 55 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 68 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑280公里 十級風半徑100公里
     70%機率半徑 370 公里
預測 96-120 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 24 公里
     預測 09月14日20時
     中心在 北緯 17.50 度 東經 125.70 度
     中心氣壓   910 百帕
     近中心最大風速 55 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 68 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑280公里 十級風半徑100公里
     70%機率半徑 510 公里

图片:2018MANGKHUT-090912_PTA_1_download.png

图片:2018MANGKHUT-090912_WSP_0_download.png

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