颱風巨爵
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[AL]TCFA - 墨西哥湾95L - 26.9N 97.4W - NHC:70%

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-09-11 13:15
95L INVEST 180911 0000 19.6N 86.2W ATL 25 1009

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png



1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and western Cuba are associated with a weak surface
trough.  The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northwestward
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula over
the next couple of days with only slow development expected during
that time. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive, and a tropical depression could form late this week when
the system moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-09-15 17:48编辑了帖子]
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  • tcfa_gw
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    09-11 20:53
  • tcfa_gw
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    09-11 20:53
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Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
炎煌深沉
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1楼#
发布于:2018-09-11 20:13
NHC:30%/60%
1. A large area of disturbed weather over the extreme northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is a associated
with a surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. Although
this activity is showing signs of organization, there are no signs
of a surface circulation. Limited development is anticipated
today, but upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the
disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
 Interests
across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana
should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western
Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-11 20:15编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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2楼#
发布于:2018-09-12 07:33
NHC:50%/70%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm
Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. An area of disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico continues to show
some signs of organization.  Upper-levels winds are forecast to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance moves across
the western Gulf of Mexico.  If necessary, an Air Force
reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores within the next day or
so.  Environmental conditions are conducive for some development,
and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the end of
the week while the low meanders over the northeastern Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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炎煌深沉
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3楼#
发布于:2018-09-12 19:33
NHC:60%/60%
1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a trough of low pressure over
the south-central Gulf of Mexico have decreased since yesterday
and the Air Force reconnaissance plane scheduled to investigate the
system for today will likely be cancelled.
 However, upper-level
winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could still form Thursday or
Friday before the system reaches the western Gulf Coast.
 Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across
portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this
week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-12 19:37编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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4楼#
发布于:2018-09-13 01:56
NHC:70%/70%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and
it is likely that a tropical depression will form on Thursday,
before the system reaches the western Gulf coast.  Another
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
Louisiana late this week, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Satellite images indicate that a strong area of low pressure located
a little more than 600 miles west-southwest of the Azores is rapidly
becoming better organized and a subtropical or tropical storm
appears to be forming. If this trend continues, advisories will be
initiated later today or tonight. The low is forecast to move toward
the southwest for the next couple of days, and then turn to the
northeast behind Hurricane Helene.  For more information, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late
this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is
possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Avila

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png



TCFA

图片:al952018.20180912184928.gif

[颱風巨爵于2018-09-13 03:30编辑了帖子]
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hnwfnhee
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5楼#
发布于:2018-09-13 03:14
难得的盛况,05年后再也没有这样热闹过了
来自温岭偏僻农村的野夫
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红豆棒冰冰
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6楼#
发布于:2018-09-13 18:28
NHC:60%/60%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles, and on Subtropical Storm Joyce, located a little less
than a 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

1. A trough of low pressure is located over the central Gulf of
Mexico.  Although associated shower activity remains limited,
upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for
the development of a tropical depression before the system reaches
the western Gulf coast on Friday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later
today, if necessary.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico,
Texas, and Louisiana late this week. Interests there should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late
this weekend or early next week.  Some gradual development is
possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Roberts

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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炎煌深沉
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7楼#
发布于:2018-09-13 20:16
NHC:50%/50%
1. A trough of low pressure located over the western Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While upper-level
winds are generally conducive for the development of a tropical
depression, the system only has about a day before it reaches the
western Gulf coast.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
Louisiana on Friday and Saturday.  Interests there should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-09-13 20:18编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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8楼#
发布于:2018-09-14 17:13
NHC:30%/30%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, near the North Carolina coast, on Tropical Storm Helene,
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical Storm Isaac,
located in the eastern Caribbean Sea, and on Tropical Storm
Joyce, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

1. Shower activity has changed little in organization in association
with a broad area of low pressure located over the western Gulf of
Mexico.  Although upper-level winds appear conducive for
development, this low only has a short period of time to develop
into a tropical depression before it moves inland over northeastern
Mexico and southern Texas later today.  An Air Force reconnaissance
plane is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if
necessary.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and Texas
later today and Saturday.  Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure could form near Bermuda late this
weekend or early next week.  Additional development, if any, is
expected to be slow while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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炎煌深沉
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9楼#
发布于:2018-09-14 17:18
补充报文

WTNT21 KNGU 131800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.4N 92.7W TO 28.9N 97.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBESERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141800Z.//
BT
NNNN

图片:al952018.gif

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