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[SH(18-19)]查戈斯群岛西南无名中等热带风暴第1号(01S) - 南半球新风季首旋,风场达标事后升格 - MFR:40KT

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更多 发布于:2018-09-13 07:07
90S INVEST 180913 0000 5.6S 75.0E SHEM 15 1007

图片:20180912.2200.msg-1.ir.90S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.5.6S.75E.100pc.jpg

[327于2018-11-11 20:00编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
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    90S
    2018-09-13 13:19
  • 9914dan
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    90S
    2018-09-13 13:19
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1楼#
发布于:2018-09-14 05:56
JTWC:LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S
75.5E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTARY, FORMATIVE BANDING.
A 130432Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 20- TO 25-KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ADEQUATE OUTFLOW AND MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KTS) VWS WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES NORTH OF THE CENTER. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL, WITH 90S ABOVE 26-28C WATERS BUT
JUST NORTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
WEAK CIRCULATION PROPAGATING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATING IN
THE MID-TAUS, WITH NAVGEM DISSENTING AND SHOWING A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TRACKING TO THE AFRICAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:132045abpwsair.jpg

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2楼#
发布于:2018-09-14 09:50
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S 75.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 74.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 132302Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LLCC, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER AND A SINGLE LINE OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO IT. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED, WITH A BETTER
DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO TRACKED
FURTHER SOUTH, DEEPER INTO A REGION OF LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, SSTS ARE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH THE SYSTEMS CENTER
RESIDING ON THE 26C ISOTHERM. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP 90S AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, WITH THE
ECMWF DISSENTING. TH ECMWF SOLUTIONS FAVORS A VERY SMALL CLOSED
CIRCULATION TRACKING FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

图片:140030abpwsair.jpg

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3楼#
发布于:2018-09-14 14:37
TPXS10 PGTW 140533
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (E OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 14/0530Z
C. 9.19S
D. 74.04E
E. THREE/MET8
F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 2.0. PT IS 2.5. DBO
CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 ZOUFALY

TXXS28 KNES 140609
TCSSIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90S)
B. 14/0530Z
C. 9.0S
D. 74.2E
E. THREE/MET-8
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON 0.35 CURVED BANDING. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
 NIL
...KIM
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发布于:2018-09-14 15:03
南半球本年度首个热带系统正式生成:热带扰动1号
WTIO30 FMEE 140701
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/1/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  1
2.A POSITION 2018/09/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 74.1 E
(NINE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL
ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/09/14 18 UTC: 10.0 S / 72.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2018/09/15 06 UTC: 10.7 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/09/15 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/09/16 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/09/16 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 65.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/09/17 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/09/18 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0
SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM FORMED YESTERDAY EAST OF THE
CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MSG-1 DATA REVEAL A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH CURVED BANDING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEAR FLUCTUATING AT THIS TIME.
THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR NORTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS POOR EQUATORWARD AND
GOOD ON THE TRADEWINDS SIDE. DRY MID LEVEL AIR WRAPS AROUND THE OUTER
CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS. OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN
IS CURRENTLY SUFFICIENT.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITHIN
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS
SUGGESTED. HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXCELLENT INITIAL DEFINITION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION, ONE CAN NOT RULED OUT SOME MORE INTENSIFICATION UP
TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING THAT TIME.
MONDAY AND BEYOND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN A MORE MID-LEVEL
DRY ENVIRONMENT, WITH TILL SOME SHEAR AND MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS
(LITTLE OR NO OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN SOUTH OF 12S). GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED BY THAT TIME.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.=
[327于2018-09-14 16:15编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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327
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发布于:2018-09-14 16:15
JTWC:TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 74.3E TO 11.5S 68.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 74.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 140411Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENED CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A
LIMITING FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM RESIDES ON THE 26C ISOTHERM. DYNAMIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 90S AS A WEAK, COMPACT DISTURBANCE WITH A
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, WITH GFS AND ECMWF
PREDICTING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150900Z.
//
NNNN

图片:sh902019.20180914080706.gif

图片:90S_140900sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-09-14 22:14
ZCZC 187
WTIO30 FMEE 141227 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/1/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  1
2.A POSITION 2018/09/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5 S / 73.5 E
(NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL
FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/09/15 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2018/09/15 12 UTC: 10.7 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/09/16 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/09/16 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/09/17 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/09/17 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/09/18 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0
NNNN

图片:SWI$01_20182019.png

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327
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发布于:2018-09-15 08:50
升格01S
01S ONE 180915 0000 9.9S 72.1E SHEM 35 1007
01S ONE 180914 1800 9.8S 72.8E SHEM 30 1008
01S ONE 180914 1200 9.6S 73.5E SHEM 30 1007
01S ONE 180914 0600 9.2S 74.1E SHEM 30 1007
01S ONE 180914 0000 8.8S 74.5E SHEM 25 1007
01S ONE 180913 1800 8.2S 75.0E SHEM 25 1004
01S ONE 180913 1200 7.6S 75.5E SHEM 20 1007
01S ONE 180913 0600 7.2S 75.7E SHEM 20 1007
01S ONE 180913 0000 6.7S 75.9E SHEM 20 1007
01S ONE 180912 0600 6.1S 76.0E SHEM 15 1007
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热带低压
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发布于:2018-09-15 10:20
其它数据还没出来,先云图三联。
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发布于:2018-09-15 10:29
WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE  WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140851ZSEP2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 72.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 72.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 10.3S 70.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 10.8S 68.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 11.5S 65.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 11.9S 63.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 11.1S 58.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 7.9S 53.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 71.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A
COMBINATION OF THE EIR IMAGERY AND A 142250Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A LOW
BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE REGION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS). TC 01S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL AT 26 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER 01S WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM AND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, SST CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND 35 KTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY HIGH, WITH A SPREAD OF OVER 300 NM
BY TAU 72, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 140900).//
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图片:sh0119.gif

图片:01S_150000sair.jpg

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