9914dan
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[IO]孟加拉湾中部气旋风暴“达耶”(BOB 07/04B.Daye) - 近岸命名,深入印度

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更多 发布于:2018-09-16 17:19
97B INVEST 180916 0600 14.8N 88.3E IO 15 0

图片:QQ图片20180916182314.jpg

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红豆棒冰冰
台风
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发布于:2018-09-17 01:42
(动图)GFS 2018091612z报支持一定程度的发展

图片:gfs_z500_mslp_india_fh0-144.gif

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MTWP
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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发布于:2018-09-18 02:04
JTWC: LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZSEP2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151ZSEP2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.1N
      92.0E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH.
BASED ON THE LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND  AN
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 171631Z, SHOW WEAK FLARING
CONVECTION WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION, REDUCING
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE AT 5-15KTS.
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD FLOW IS HELPING TO ENABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27-29C.
MODELS SHOW POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OF BURMA IN 48-72
HOURS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE POSITIONING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

眩しさだけは、忘れなかった。
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红豆棒冰冰
台风
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发布于:2018-09-19 02:14
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZSEP2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 92.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16N 93E, APPROXIMATELY 386 NM
SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND AN 181213Z 91GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOW
WEAK FLARING CONVECTION WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION. AN
181452Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 5-10 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH
STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THERE IS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AT 10-20 KTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE,
BETWEEN 27-29C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL IN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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红豆棒冰冰
台风
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发布于:2018-09-19 11:36
TPIO10 PGTW 190301
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97B (W OF MYANMAR)
B. 19/0230Z
C. 16.65N
D. 91.24E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 VEERKAMP

TXIO28 KNES 190312
TCSNIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97B)
B. 19/0230Z
C. 16.5N
D. 90.7E
E. THREE/MET-8
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH THE LLCC LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST FOR A
DT=2.0. MET=1.5. PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET SINCE CLOUD FEATURES ARE
NOT CLEAR-CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
 NIL
...LEE

图片:2018IO97_4KMIRIMG_201809190300.gif

图片:20180919.0230.hm8.x.vis1km.97BINVEST.20kts-1000mb-166N-914E.100pc.jpg

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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-09-19 15:54
IMD看好的是这个,预报半天内增强至低压、一天内深低压。

A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMED OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AT 0900UTC OF YESTERDAY, THE 18TH SEPTEMBER,2018. IT PERSISTED AND BECAME WELL MARKED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0300UTC OF TODAY, THE 19TH SEPTEMBER,2018.   IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12HOURS AND FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 12HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS  NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH & SOUTH ODISHA COASTS BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP DURING  LATE NIGHT OF 20TH AND EARLY MORNING OF 21ST SEPTEMBER,2018.
 
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.0. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 15-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH OVER THE REGION OF WELL MARKED LOW.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2018-09-19 22:00
JTWC:TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 191400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 90.3E TO 19.4N 84.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5N 89.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 90.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 89.7E, APPROXIMATELY 366
NM EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 191112Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL OUTFLOW. A
RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD REGION OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29
CELSIUS) IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A SHORT LIVED TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201400Z.
//
NNNN

图片:io972018.20180919132144.gif

图片:io9718.gif

图片:191430abiosair.jpg

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meow
世纪风王
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发布于:2018-09-20 15:48
升格深低压,预报登陆前气旋风暴。

THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED ABOUT 15 KMPH IN PAST SIX HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 20TH SEPTEMBER, 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.50N AND LONGITUDE 87.00E, ABOUT 310 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (43105) AND ABOUT 300 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR (43049). IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH ODISHA - NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM (43105) AND PURI (43053), CLOSE TO GOPALPUR (43049) AROUND 1500-2100 UTC OF TODAY, THE 20TH SEPTEMBER AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED OF 60-70 KMPH GUSTING TO 80 KMPH.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2018-09-20 22:10
JTWC升格04B
04B INVEST 180920 1200 18.1N 86.3E IO 35 995

图片:20180920.1200.himawari-8.ir.97B.INVEST.35kts.994mb.18.1N.86.3E.100pc.jpg

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红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
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发布于:2018-09-21 00:53
WTIO31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZSEP2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 20.0N 84.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 21.0N 81.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 85.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 201020Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
BUT DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS,
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG (20 TO 35 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 30 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 04B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06
WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 24 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z AND
210900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 191400).//
NNNN

图片:io0418.gif


图片:2018IO97_4KMIRIMG_201809201500.gif


图片:QQ20180922-2.gif



图片:20180920.1500.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.04BINVEST.35kts-995mb-181N-863E.100pc.jpg

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