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[AL]小安的列斯群岛以东热带低压11L - 环境险恶,未能获名

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更多 发布于:2018-09-20 07:55
97L INVEST 180919 1800 9.1N 46.0W ATL 25 1009

图片:20180919.2315.msg4.x.ir1km_bw.97LINVEST.25kts-100.jpg


图片:two_atl_2d0.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png



1. A westward-moving tropical wave is producing a small but
concentrated area of thunderstorms about 900 miles east of the
Windward Islands. Some slow development of this disturbance will be
possible through early Friday before environmental conditions become
quite unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by late Friday and
continuing through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
[327于2018-09-24 15:00编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-09-21 12:27
NHC:10%/10%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located about 650 miles east of
the Windward Islands.  The combination of dry mid-level air and
strong upper-level winds are expected to hinder any development of
this disturbance while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds, located
about 100 miles north-northeast of Bermuda, is moving southeastward
at about 15 mph. The combination of dry air associated with a
weakening frontal system and strong upper-level winds are expected
to inhibit any significant development for the next couple of days.
However, conditions could become a bit more conducive for this low
to gradually acquire some tropical characteristics early next week
while the system moves southward on Sunday, and then drifts westward
to the southwest of Bermuda on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Another non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop
by Friday night over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway
between Bermuda and the Azores.  Conditions are expected to be
conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form
late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the
central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

4. A tropical wave is moving off the coast of Guinea in western Africa.
Some slow but gradual development of this system is possible during
the next several days as the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20
mph across the low latitudes of the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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发布于:2018-09-22 05:40
NHC: 40%/40%
949
ABNT20 KNHC 212016
TWOAT

图片:two_atl_2d0.png

图片:two_atl_2d2.png

图片:two_atl_5d2.png


Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
420 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to update probabilities on the disturbance east of
the Windward Islands.

A low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located
about 600 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Although the showers and thunderstorms have decreased this
afternoon, this system is still showing signs of organization. The
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow
development, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
low latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
well-defined low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the
Windward Islands has become better organized over the past few
hours, and a tropical depression could form later tonight or
Saturday. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are likely to
prevent additional development of this system by late this weekend
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located about 100 miles southeast
of Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity.  Development of
this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to
dry air and strong upper-level winds.  However, environmental
conditions could become more conducive for slow development when the
system moves over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the early
and middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop tonight
or on Saturday over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway
between Bermuda and the Azores.  Conditions are expected to be
conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely
to form late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders
over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
できない私ですが、くり返さない。
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发布于:2018-09-22 09:50
升格11L
AL, 11, 2018092200,   , BEST,   0, 130N,  532W,  30, 1007, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  100,  20,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     ELEVEN, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 031, TRANSITIONED, alC72018 to al112018,
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发布于:2018-09-22 11:00
562
WTNT41 KNHC 220249
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018

The small, but well-defined, low pressure system located about 500
miles east of the Lesser Antilles has been producing steady
convection for the past several hours. Although this convection is
displaced to the south and east of the exposed low-level center due
to strong westerly wind shear, it has persisted long enough to meet
the NHC definition of a tropical cyclone. On this basis, advisories
are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven.

The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on ASCAT data from
earlier today which showed a couple of 25-30 kt wind vectors in the
northeast quadrant of the circulation. The intensity guidance is in
extremely good agreement that the depression is unlikely to
strengthen. All of the global models forecast an increase in
upper-level winds over the small cyclone during the next 24 h. In
fact, SHIPS diagnostics indicate that the 850-200 mb shear could
exceed 30 kt by tomorrow morning, and will be near 40 kt within 48
h. As a result of this shear and some dry air also in the vicinity,
the dynamical models unanimously forecast dissipation within 72 h,
and most show that the depression will open into a trough of low
pressure sooner than that. The NHC forecast conservatively maintains
the tropical cyclone for 48 h, but it could weaken and dissipate
sooner than currently indicated.

The depression has recently been moving almost due west, but a
longer-term motion yields an initial motion of 290/5 kt. A break in
the subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should result
in fairly weak steering flow for the next day or two, and only a
slow west-northwestward to westward motion is anticipated. All of
the typically-reliable track models are in fairly good agreement on
this scenario.  The NHC forecast is very close to HCCA at all
forecast hours, and lies near the south edge of the tight guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 13.1N  53.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 13.5N  54.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 13.8N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 14.2N  56.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 14.5N  58.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

图片:025111_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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发布于:2018-09-22 12:13
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 220000
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 52.1W TO 14.5N 56.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 53.2W. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 TO 12 KNOTS.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A WELL-
DEFINED TROPICAL LOW TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AND IF CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 230000Z.//

图片:al972018.gif



WTNT01 KNGU 220300
SUBJ:TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (11L) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (11L) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 53.2W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 53.2W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 13.5N 54.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 13.8N 55.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 14.2N 56.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 14.5N 58.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 53.5W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (11L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 414 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
THERE ARE NO 12 FT SEAS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
//
BT
NNNN

图片:al112018.gif

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发布于:2018-09-22 17:23
624
WTNT41 KNHC 220836
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

Deep convection remains displaced to the east of the depression's
center due to 30-40 kt of westerly shear.  Although Dvorak final-T
numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased since yesterday--now a
consensus T1.0--the initial intensity is held, perhaps generously,
at 30 kt.  Strong westerly shear is expected to persist for several
days, which at the very least will prevent the depression from
getting any better organized.  Since the global models show the
depression opening up into a trough in about 24 hours, the new NHC
intensity forecast brings down the winds a little faster, shows the
system becoming a remnant low by 36 hours, and dissipates the low
entirely by 48 hours well east of the Windward Islands.  This
evolution could certainly occur more quickly than indicated by the
official forecast.

The center of the depression has not been moving much, and it's
possible the sheared convection is trying to pull it back toward
the east.  However, the average motion over the past 12 hours is
westward, or 270/4 kt.  The track guidance insists that the
depression should move slowly west-northwestward over the next
couple of days, but given that the system has not made any
northward progress, I elected to skirt the southern edge of the
guidance envelope.  This new forecast is a little south of the
previous NHC track prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 13.0N  53.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 13.3N  54.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 13.6N  55.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 13.8N  56.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

图片:083738_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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发布于:2018-09-23 01:01
345
WTNT41 KNHC 221432
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

It appears that the depression's best day is behind it, as the
cloud pattern has become less organized this morning. The low-level
center is becoming increasingly separated from the warming cloud
tops in what remains of the deep convection, which is displaced to
the east by nearly 40 kt of west-southwesterly shear as analyzed by
UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt,
consistent with a T1.0 classification from TAFB. Given that the
strong shear is expected to continue and the depression will be
moving through a relatively dry environment, the cyclone should
gradually spin down and become a remnant low by 24 hours and
dissipate by 48 hours. However, I would not be surprised if either
or both of these occurred sooner.

The center of the depression hasn't moved much during the past few
hours, but a long-term initial motion estimate is 280/03. The
weakening cyclone should be steered westward to west-northwestward
by a low-level ridge. The new NHC track forecast is north of the
previous one but remains along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope given doubts about how much latitude such a shallow system
will gain prior to dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 13.2N  53.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 13.6N  54.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 14.0N  55.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 14.4N  56.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

图片:143303_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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发布于:2018-09-23 14:08
082
WTNT41 KNHC 230235
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

Although deep convection has increased since earlier today, it has
become increasingly difficult to identify a well-defined center
associated with the depression. After moving erratically during the
afternoon, the center of the depression appears to have become
disrupted by convection to its east, and it is unclear at this point
if a closed surface circulation still exists. Since visible imagery
is not currently available and recent ASCAT data from around 0000Z
was inconclusive, at least one more advisory will be issued under
the assumption that the depression has not quite yet dissipated.

The initial motion is highly uncertain, but it is assumed that the
system is still moving generally northwestward, or 310/3 kt. No
substantial changes were made to the NHC intensity or track
forecasts. All available guidance indicates that the depression will
continue to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward for the
next day or two while it gradually weakens due to continued strong
wind shear. Given the recent increase in convection, it no longer
seems likely that the system will become a remnant low prior to
dissipating. Therefore, the NHC forecast now keeps the system as a
tropical depression until dissipation occurs in 36 h, if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 13.8N  54.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 14.2N  55.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 14.5N  56.6W   20 KT  25 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

图片:023829_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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发布于:2018-09-23 18:50
959
WTNT41 KNHC 230832
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Satellite images indicate that the depression is poorly organized.
The circulation is becoming increasingly elongated, and it seems
likely that a closed circulation may no longer exist.  However, we
are maintaining advisories for now to wait for visible imagery to
better assess the low-level circulation.  The depression continues
to produce a few patches of deep convection, but these are confined
to the east and northeast portions of the circulation due to about
35 kt of westerly shear.  The initial intensity remains 25 kt based
on the earlier ASCAT data.

The system is moving into an environment of even stronger westerly
wind shear.  These hostile winds and dry air should cause the
depression to dissipate, if it has not already, later today or
tonight.  The depression, or its remnants, are expected to move
slowly west-northwestward for another day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 14.5N  55.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 15.0N  56.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:083342_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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