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[WP]1824号热带气旋“潭美”(28W.Trami)机构发报专帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-09-20 16:15
1824号热带气旋“潭美”机构发报指引
9月20日:
JMA   18   21
JTWC  TCFA   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月21日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12(命名)   15   18   21
CMA  12   18   21
         台风公报(22:00)
KMA  12   18
CWB  12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月22日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(09:37)   台风公报(17:41)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  03   12   21
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月23日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(05:42)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   09   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月24日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月25日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月26日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:12)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   03   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月27日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:11)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月28日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月29日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月30日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)   台风登陆消息(19:22)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12(Final Warning)

10月1日:
JMA   00   03(变性温带气旋)
CMA  00(停编)
         台风公报(06:00)
KMA  00   06

图片:wp922018.20180920081628.gif


图片:92W_200900sair.jpg


WTPN21 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 146.5E TO 16.0N 136.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 146.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 144.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 146.1E, APPROXIMATELY
90 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200518Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS LLC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION
WITH STRONGER WINDS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RADAR
LOOP FROM ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED MIDLEVEL (NEAR 7000 FT) CIRCULATION
CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ANDERSEN AFB (PGUA) INDICATE
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WHILE SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 21 KNOTS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING STATUS LIKELY
AFTER IT PASSES TO THE WEST OF GUAM, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE MONSOON
DEPRESSION CHARACTERISTICS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210900Z.//
NNNN
[红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-04 10:13编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2018-09-21 03:19
JMA/TD-a/09-20 18Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年09月21日04時20分 発表
 

图片:a-00.png


<21日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
中心位置 北緯 13度40分(13.7度)
 東経 145度00分(145.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
 
<21日15時の予報>
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 14度00分(14.0度)
 東経 141度55分(141.9度)
進行方向、速さ 西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
 
<22日03時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 14度30分(14.5度)
 東経 139度00分(139.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
[MTWP于2018-09-21 03:22编辑了帖子]
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2楼#
发布于:2018-09-21 07:30
JTWC/28W/#01/09-20 18Z
WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200851ZSEP2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 13.8N 145.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 145.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 15.0N 143.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 16.1N 141.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 16.7N 139.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 17.0N 136.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 18.1N 132.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 19.7N 129.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 21.1N 128.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 144.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
2.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 200900).//
NNNN

图片:201800-wp2818.gif

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3楼#
发布于:2018-09-21 07:30
JTWC/28W/#01/09-20 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
13 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND BANDING FEATURES STARTING TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM AND IS
SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR TD 28W
ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SSTS (28-29 CELSIUS).
TD 28W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN
OTHERWISE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. BY TAU 24, TD 28W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN ONTO A
WESTWARD TRACK AS THE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION OF THE STR BECOMES THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK. THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN
A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AND TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY TO 115 KTS BY TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, HOWEVER SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AMONG
THE MEMBERS WITH CTCI (130 KTS) AND COTI (75 KTS) REPRESENTING THE
EXTREMES AT TAU 72. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ABOUT 170 NM OF SPREAD
BY TAU 72, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
IS FAIR.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE STR AND ALLOW TD 28W TO BEGIN ROTATING
POLEWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
HOWEVER, BY TAU 120 THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED ABOVE THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AID POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, IF THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST SOONER, THE
CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. DURING THIS PERIOD, MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
DEGREE OF RE-CURVATURE AROUND THE STR AXIS. FOR THIS REASON, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

图片:28W_201800sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-09-21 07:30
JMA/TD-a/09-20 21Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年09月21日06時40分 発表

<21日06時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 14度05分(14.1度)
東経 144度20分(144.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<21日18時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 14度10分(14.2度)
東経 141度30分(141.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<22日06時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 14度40分(14.7度)
東経 138度30分(138.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:202100-zooml-a-00.png

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发布于:2018-09-21 09:30
JMA/TD-a/09-21 00Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年09月21日10時25分 発表

<21日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 14度25分(14.4度)
東経 144度20分(144.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<21日21時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 15度00分(15.0度)
東経 142度30分(142.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<22日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 15度50分(15.8度)
東経 140度25分(140.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:210000-zooml-a-00.png

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发布于:2018-09-21 10:20
JTWC/28W/#02/09-21 00Z
WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 144.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 144.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 15.6N 142.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 16.4N 140.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 17.0N 138.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 17.5N 135.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 18.7N 131.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 20.3N 129.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 21.8N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 143.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75
NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN

图片:210000-wp2818.gif

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7楼#
发布于:2018-09-21 10:20
JTWC/28W/#02/09-21 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
75 NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) WHICH DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND BANDING FROM ALL
QUADRANTS, PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST, WRAPPING IN TO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) MAKE FOR A PRIME
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. TD 28W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN OTHERWISE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 28W IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD A WESTWARD
TRACK AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE STR. AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN
THE STR AND, BY TAU 72, TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A POLEWARD TURN
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. FOR THIS PERIOD, THE FORECAST INTENSITY
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON 140 NM OF
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AT TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STR
AXIS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INCREASES AS DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MEMBERS RESOLVE THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE STR AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSLATE INTO
DIFFERENCES IN DIRECTION OF MOTION AND ALONG TRACK SPEED. THE
INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, DESPITE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, BECAUSE THE ORIENTATION OF THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AID POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEFORE
INCREASING VWS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. BY TAU 120, SPREAD IN THE
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE LARGE, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

图片:28W_210000sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-09-21 12:16
JMA/TD-a/09-21 03Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年09月21日13時15分 発表
 

图片:a-00.png


<21日12時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
中心位置 北緯 14度40分(14.7度)
 東経 144度00分(144.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
 
<22日00時の予報>
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 15度40分(15.7度)
 東経 142度10分(142.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
 
<22日12時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 16度35分(16.6度)
 東経 139度50分(139.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
[tcfa_gw于2018-09-21 15:26编辑了帖子]
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    图片错误
    2018-09-21 15:09
できない私ですが、くり返さない。
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t02436
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9楼#
发布于:2018-09-21 15:12
JMA/TD-a/09-21 06Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年09月21日16時15分 発表

图片:a-00.png


<21日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 15度00分(15.0度)
東経 143度40分(143.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<22日03時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 15度50分(15.8度)
東経 141度50分(141.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<22日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 16度35分(16.6度)
東経 139度35分(139.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
[t02436于2018-09-21 15:16编辑了帖子]
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