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发布于:2018-09-21 16:30
JTWC/28W/#03/09-21 06Z
WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 003    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 15.1N 143.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 143.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 16.0N 141.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 16.7N 139.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 17.3N 136.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 17.8N 134.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 19.2N 131.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 20.4N 129.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 21.7N 129.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 142.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

图片:210600-wp2818.gif

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发布于:2018-09-21 17:09
JTWC/28W/#03/09-21 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121
NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TS 28W CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE WITH EXCELLENT
LOW LEVEL BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 210600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T2.4 (34 KNOTS). THIS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND A 210337Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 28W IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 28W
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 72. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL,
OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALL CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN
CAPTURED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT, TS 28W WILL QUICKLY REACH AN
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MODEL SPREAD OF 135 NM BY
TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL ERODE AS A
RESULT OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A STR TO THE WEST WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD AT THIS TIME. THE POSITIONING OF THE STRS WILL
ALLOW FOR TS 28W TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED. BY TAU 96, STRS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEST WILL COMPETE TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE. THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRS MAY ALLOW TS 28W TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY BEGINNING NEAR TAU 108. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
ALLOWING TS 28W TO REACH AND INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AND UP
TO 140 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK SPREAD OF 500 NM BY TAU 120. HWFI, CTCI,
AND COTI ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS, INDICATING A FASTER TRACK SPEED
TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST T RACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE
SPREAD IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
ABOVE THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.//
NNNN

图片:28W_210600sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-09-21 18:03
JMA/TD-a/09-21 09Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年09月21日19時05分 発表

<21日18時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
中心位置 北緯 15度05分(15.1度)
東経 143度10分(143.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<22日06時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 15度55分(15.9度)
東経 141度10分(141.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

<22日18時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 16度30分(16.5度)
東経 139度00分(139.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

图片:a-00.png

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发布于:2018-09-21 21:07
JMA/1824/09-21 12Z
台風第24号 (チャーミー)
平成30年09月21日22時10分 発表

<21日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
中心位置 北緯 15度20分(15.3度)
東経 142度40分(142.7度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域 北東側 330km(180NM)
南西側 170km(90NM)

<22日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 16度05分(16.1度)
東経 140度40分(140.7度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 994hPa
中心付近の最大風速 23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径 60km(30NM)

<22日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 16度35分(16.6度)
東経 138度25分(138.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 990hPa
中心付近の最大風速 30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速 40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 170km(90NM)

<23日21時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 17度30分(17.5度)
東経 133度25分(133.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 970hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 300km(160NM)

<24日21時の予報>
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 18度40分(18.7度)
東経 130度20分(130.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 950hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速 65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径 240km(130NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 390km(210NM)

图片:1824-00.png


<25日21時の予報>
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 19度25分(19.4度)
東経 129度10分(129.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 ゆっくり
予報円の半径 440km(240NM)

<26日21時の予報>
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 19度55分(19.9度)
東経 129度00分(129.0度)
進行方向、速さ ほとんど停滞
予報円の半径 700km(375NM)

图片:1824-00.png

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327
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发布于:2018-09-21 21:40
CWB/1824/09-21 12Z
輕度颱風 編號第24號
國際命名  TRAMI  中文譯名  潭美

》現況
2018年09月21日20時
      中心位置 北緯 15.50 度 東經 142.50 度
      過去移動方向   西北西
      過去移動時速   20 公里
      中心氣壓   998 百帕
      近中心最大風速 18 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 25 公尺/秒
      七級風半徑100公里
》預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 23 公里
     預測 09月22日08時
     中心在 北緯 16.40 度 東經 140.10 度
     中心氣壓   992 百帕
     近中心最大風速 23 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 30 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑100公里
     70%機率半徑 50 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 21 公里
     預測 09月22日20時
     中心在 北緯 16.90 度 東經 137.80 度
     中心氣壓   985 百帕
     近中心最大風速 25 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 33 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑100公里
     70%機率半徑 100 公里
預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
     西 時速 17 公里
     預測 09月23日20時
     中心在 北緯 17.40 度 東經 133.60 度
     中心氣壓   965 百帕
     近中心最大風速 35 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 45 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑180公里 十級風半徑60公里
     70%機率半徑 180 公里
預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 14 公里
     預測 09月24日20時
     中心在 北緯 18.60 度 東經 130.70 度
     中心氣壓   955 百帕
     近中心最大風速 40 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 50 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑200公里 十級風半徑60公里
     70%機率半徑 260 公里
預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為
     西北 時速 7 公里
     預測 09月25日20時
     中心在 北緯 19.70 度 東經 129.50 度
     中心氣壓   945 百帕
     近中心最大風速 43 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 53 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑220公里 十級風半徑80公里
     70%機率半徑 370 公里
預測 96-120 小時平均移向移速為
     北北西 緩慢移動
     預測 09月26日20時
     中心在 北緯 20.50 度 東經 129.10 度
     中心氣壓   942 百帕
     近中心最大風速 45 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 55 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑220公里 十級風半徑80公里
     70%機率半徑 550 公里

图片:2018TRAMI-092112_PTA_1_download.png

图片:2018TRAMI-092112_WSP_0_download.png

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发布于:2018-09-21 21:40
CMA/1824/09-21 12Z
ZCZC
WSCI40 BABJ 211200
TO BCSY BCHK BCSH BCCD BCGZ
BETY BEXA BETJ BESZ BEJN BEZZ BEBJ
2053 0669 1417 0143 2456 (15.4) 9887 9976
(142.5) 9878 4104 3583 1601 3049 2467 2456
9921 9812 9899 7030 1193 4882 3634 4574
(1824) 5714 3583 1601 3049 2467 9975
BABJ/3049 9709 9921 9812 =
NNNN

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 211200
CCAA 21120 99398 11165
TRAMI 24154 11425 122// 225// 9////
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 211200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS TRAMI 1824 (1824) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC
00HR 15.4N 142.5E 1000HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
200KM SOUTHWEST
270KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 23KM/H
P+12HR 16.2N 140.1E 998HPA 20M/S
P+24HR 16.6N 137.4E 995HPA 23M/S
P+36HR 16.7N 135.5E 990HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 17.2N 133.3E 985HPA 28M/S
P+60HR 17.8N 131.6E 980HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 18.7N 130.6E 970HPA 35M/S
P+96HR 20.1N 129.9E 960HPA 40M/S
P+120HR 21.4N 129.3E 950HPA 45M/S=
NNNN

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20180921200000048.jpg

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发布于:2018-09-21 21:47
KMA/1824/09-21 12Z
No.24 TRAMI
Issued at(KST) : 2018.09.21. 22:40
Date(UTC)PositionCentral Pressure (hPa)Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km)IntensityScaleMoving DirectionMoving Speed(km/h)Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/skm/h
2018.09.21. 12:00 Analysis15.4142.89981865170
(SW 110)
WeakSmallWNW18
2018.09.22. 12:00 Forecast16.5138.19942176220
(SW 160)
WeakSmallWNW22110
2018.09.23. 12:00 Forecast17.4133.698029104280
(SW 220)
NormalSmallWNW20170
2018.09.24. 12:00 Forecast18.8130.796039140320
(SW 240)
StrongMediumWNW14250
2018.09.25. 12:00 Forecast19.6129.894047169340
(SW 260)
Very StrongMediumNW6330
2018.09.26. 12:00 Forecast20.1129.293050180360
(SW 280)
Very StrongMediumNW3450


图片:RTKO63_201809212240]24_en.png

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发布于:2018-09-21 22:00
JTWC/28W/#04/09-21 12Z
WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 142.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 142.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 16.4N 140.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 17.0N 138.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 17.5N 135.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 18.1N 133.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 19.4N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 20.3N 129.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 21.2N 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 142.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

图片:wp282018.20180921134835.gif

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发布于:2018-09-21 22:45
JTWC/28W/#04/09-21 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (TRAMI)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 211105Z PARTIAL METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS ALSO BASED ON THE SAME
211105Z ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH
OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 28W CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND
CONTINUES TO HAVE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 28W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALL CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE AND IS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. AS
A RESULT, TS 28W WILL QUICKLY REACH AN INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU
48 AND 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A MODEL SPREAD OF 120 NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL ERODE AS A
RESULT OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE STR TO THE WEST,
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD AT THIS TIME.
COMPETING STEERING FLOW DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE STRS WILL ALLOW
FOR TS 28W TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED. THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TS 28W TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 96. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD, ALLOWING TS 28W TO REACH AND INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS
BY TAU 96 AND UP TO 140 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK SPREAD OF 650 NM BY TAU
120. CTCI AND JGSI ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST, RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED ABOVE
THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.//
NNNN
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发布于:2018-09-21 23:45
CMA/1824/台风公报/09-21 22:00
台 风 预 报
预报:黄奕武  签发:张 东   2018 年  09 月  21 日  22 时
今年第24号台风“潭美”在西北太平洋生成
一、今年第24号台风生成

今年第24号台风“潭美”(热带风暴级;英文名称:TRAMI;名称来源:越南;名称意义:一种花)今天(21日)20时在西北太平洋洋面上生成,其中心位于冲绳那霸东南方向约1950公里,就是北纬15.4度、东经142.5度,中心附近最大风力8级(18米/秒),中心最低气压1000百帕,七级风圈半径200-300公里。

二、“潭美”将向西偏北方向移动

预计,“潭美”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度逐渐加强。“潭美”未来三天对我国近海无影响。

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_P9_20180921140002400_XML_1.png

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