9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2009-06-25
  • 最后登录2018-10-24
  • 粉丝143
  • 关注61
  • 发帖数2518
  • 来自
阅读:155974回复:333

[WP]1825号超强台风“康妮”(30W.Kong-rey) - 迅猛爆发对流强劲,踏入冷水极速减弱,环流庞大东海北上,5日江浙沪狂风大作,6日早上登陆庆尚南道 - JTWC:140KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-09-22 21:47
维基百科路径图

图片:1280px-Kong-rey_2018_track.png



编扰资讯


94W INVEST 180922 1200 10.0N 160.0E WPAC 15 0

图片:20180922.1320.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.94WINVEST.15kts-100N-1600E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-10-16 20:12编辑了帖子]
3条评分, 威望 +15 金钱 +5
  • tcfa_gw
    威望 10
    SUPER TY
    10-01 17:54
  • 327
    威望 5
    94W
    09-22 22:00
  • 327
    金钱 5
    94W
    09-22 22:00
喜欢5 评分3
superstorm
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2016-11-30
  • 最后登录2018-10-23
  • 粉丝42
  • 关注58
  • 发帖数620
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2018-09-22 22:10
这就是数值预报的下一个新台风吧
以后去海南工作,那里才有大台风可以看
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2018-05-02
  • 最后登录2018-10-23
  • 粉丝27
  • 关注21
  • 发帖数945
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2018-09-23 18:01
JMA:LPA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 12N 162E WNW SLOWLY.

图片:18092315.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
芸芜迭起
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2012-02-08
  • 最后登录2018-10-06
  • 粉丝72
  • 关注12
  • 发帖数1115
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2018-09-24 11:18
多家数值支持发展

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_11.png

图片:gem_mslp_uv850_wpac_29.png

图片:gfs_mslp_uv850_wpac_28.png

图片:navgem_mslp_uv850_wpac_25.png

路为纸,地成册;行作笔,心当墨。
回复(0) 喜欢(1)     评分
327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-31
  • 最后登录2018-10-24
  • 粉丝132
  • 关注58
  • 发帖数4407
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2018-09-25 14:30
JTWC:LOW
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N
157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, FEDERATED
STATES OF MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT YET
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A
250245Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI REVEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 KNOTS
AND SLP NEAR 1006MB. A 242234Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED,
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10-15 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH AND CONVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE SYSTEM OFFSET BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
DISTINCT LLCC WILL DEVELOP AND CONSOLIDATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
GUAM AFTER DAY TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:250500abpwsair.jpg

[327于2018-09-25 14:40编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
韦森特的记忆
热带扰动
热带扰动
  • 注册日期2018-07-12
  • 最后登录2018-10-23
  • 粉丝3
  • 关注5
  • 发帖数28
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2018-09-26 07:18
EC GFS又存在巨大分歧了
回复(3) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2017-10-28
  • 最后登录2018-10-24
  • 粉丝38
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数1349
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2018-09-26 08:33
韦森特的记忆锛欵C GFS又存在巨大分歧了鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
(动图)ECMWF 2018092512z报特大西调,由转向调成西行逼近巴士海峡

图片:ecmwf_z500_mslp_wpac_fh0-240.gif


(动图)而GFS 2018092518z报坚持转向登陆日本

图片:gfs_z500_mslp_wpac_fh0-276.gif

回复(0) 喜欢(1)     评分
storm333
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2005-07-15
  • 最后登录2018-10-05
  • 粉丝58
  • 关注4
  • 发帖数1495
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2018-09-26 09:14
韦森特的记忆锛欵C GFS又存在巨大分歧了鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
秋天多了冷空气影响,不确定性剧增。
印象较深的TC有:96莎莉、97维克托、99约克、03杜鹃
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-31
  • 最后登录2018-10-24
  • 粉丝132
  • 关注58
  • 发帖数4407
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2018-09-26 14:00
JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3N 158.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 388
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
PERSISTENT YET DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. A 252317Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS TROUGHING WITH NO
DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10-15 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WINDS
CONVERGING FROM THE EAST AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RANGING FROM 15 TO
30 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE MODELS DISAGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

图片:260500abpwsair.jpg

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
samuel3106
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2008-07-06
  • 最后登录2018-10-24
  • 粉丝25
  • 关注12
  • 发帖数1599
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2018-09-26 14:59
副高後期崩潰,巴士以東北上,根據EC
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部