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[EP]墨西哥西南四级飓风“罗莎”(20E.Rosa) - 底层强悍,风眼清晰,达到高强度 - NHC:125KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-09-24 07:52
95E INVEST 180924 0000  13.5N  101.7W EPAC   20   NA

图片:20180924.0000.goes-15.ir.95E.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.13.7N.101.9W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png



1. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is beginning to show signs of
organization.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for further development and a tropical depression is likely to from
within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward well off
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-10-03 00:30编辑了帖子]
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Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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1楼#
发布于:2018-09-24 13:42
NHC:60%/90%
1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is showing some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward well off
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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2楼#
发布于:2018-09-24 15:56
TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 240800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 101.6W TO 15.4N 108.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 102.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.8N 102.4W, APPROXIMATELY 1387 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO NAVAL
BASE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240417Z MHS
METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING
STATUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250800Z.
//
NNNN

图片:ep9518.gif

图片:95E_240800sair.jpg

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3楼#
发布于:2018-09-24 20:43
NHC:70%/90%
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a little over 300 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to become better organized.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next couple days
while the system moves
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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MTWP
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4楼#
发布于:2018-09-25 01:40
NHC: 80%/90%

图片:two_pac_2d0.png

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png


837
ABPZ20 KNHC 241735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a little over 300 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to become better organized and have increased in coverage
during the past several hours.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far western
portion of the eastern North Pacific basin in a couple of days.
Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time
while it moves westward toward the central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


$$
Forecaster RobertsS=
NNNN
[MTWP于2018-09-25 20:38编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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5楼#
发布于:2018-09-25 07:52
NHC:90%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located around 300 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located about 1600 miles south-southeast
of Hilo, Hawaii is producing disorganized shower activity.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible through the end of
this week while it moves westward into the eastern portion of the
central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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6楼#
发布于:2018-09-25 15:50
升格20E
EP, 20, 2018092506,   , BEST,   0, 144N, 1069W,  30, 1006, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TWENTY, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 034, TRANSITIONED, epC52018 to ep202018,
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7楼#
发布于:2018-09-25 18:12
NHC首报上望90KT
831
WTPZ45 KNHC 250843
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast
of southwestern Mexico has now become a tropical depression, the
twentieth of the eastern North Pacific 2018 season.  ASCAT data from
around 0400 UTC indicated that the system had a well-defined center
and maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range.  In addition, satellite
images show deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity
near the center.  The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, based on
the ASCAT data, but this is a little below the latest Dvorak
estimate from TAFB.

Since the depression has only recently formed, the initial motion
is an uncertain 280/7 kt.  Mid-level ridging to the north of the
system should keep the depression on a westward to west-
northwestward path at about the same forward speed for the
next few days.  Thereafter, the models show the ridge breaking down
due to a large cut off deep-layer low moving toward the west coast
of the United States.  In response, the cyclone is expected to turn
to the northwest this weekend.  The models agree on this overall
scenario, but there is a fair amount of spread by the end of the
forecast period.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the best performing models, the
consensus aids.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for the depression to
strengthen.  SSTs are expected to remain quite warm beneath the
cyclone for the next several days while vertical wind shear values
are around 10 kt or less.  These conditions combined with a
moist airmass should allow for at least steady strengthening during
the next 3 to 4 days.  Some weakening is possible by the end of the
forecast period due to slightly cooler SSTs and an increase in
shear.  The NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of
strengthening than the guidance, since the system is still
in the developing stage, but predicts peak winds near the IVCN
consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 14.5N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 14.9N 108.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 15.5N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 15.8N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 16.9N 115.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 18.3N 118.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 20.7N 119.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:084510_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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8楼#
发布于:2018-09-25 23:34
060
WTPZ45 KNHC 251434
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become better
organized, with developing convective banding features.  Dvorak
intensity estimates are 35 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB,
respectively, and the current intensity estimate is set at 40 kt.
Thus the system is being upgraded to a tropical storm.  Conditions
favor continued strengthening, with Rosa likely to remain in an
environment of warm waters, low shear, and a very moist mid-level
air mass for the next several days.  The official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one, but below some of
the objective guidance.  By late in the forecast period, a gradual
weakening trend should commence as the system begins to move over
slightly cooler waters.

The storm is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt.  A mid-level
ridge is forecast by the global models to remain in place to the
north of Rosa through the middle part of the forecast period.  This
would likely maintain a generally west-northwestward motion for the
next 72 hours or so.  By days 4-5, the ridge is predicted to weaken
which should result in a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest.  The official track forecast is similar to that
from the previous advisory and is close to the corrected dynamical
model consensus, HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 14.7N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 15.2N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 17.1N 116.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

图片:143930_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-09-25 23:36编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
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9楼#
发布于:2018-09-26 08:13
NHC上调上望至110KT
927
WTPZ45 KNHC 252054
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Rosa has become better organized this afternoon.  An earlier 1601
UTC GMI microwave image showed impressive banding features in the
south semicircle with a banding eye type feature wrapping three
quarters around the center of circulation.  A blend of the Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial intensity of
45 kt for this advisory.

Although there is some modest northeasterly shear impinging in the
northeast side of the cyclone, the SHIPS intensity guidance
indicate that this shear will diminish in 12 hours.  Subsequently,
the SHIPS RI index and the DTOPS model indicate a relatively high
probability of rapid intensification in 24 hours.  Accordingly, the
NHC forecast calls for Rosa to become a hurricane in 12 hours based
on these data.  Further strengthening through the 72 hour period is
expected and is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus.
Beyond day 3, gradual weakening is expected due to increasing shear
and slightly cooler waters.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290 at
8 kt, and this general motion is forecast to continue through the
next 3 days south of a mid-level ridge extending from northern
Mexico westward over the eastern Pacific. In response to a
mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest, Rosa should turn
towards the northwest to north over the weekend.  It is worth noting
that there is considerable along and cross-track spread in the track
guidance beyond day 3.  Therefore, the official track forecast
follows the TVCN consensus, which lies in between the left and right
global model outlier clusters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 15.0N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 15.4N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 16.3N 113.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 17.3N 118.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 21.7N 120.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Ramos/Roberts

图片:205620_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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