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[WP]1825号热带气旋“康妮”(30W.Kong-rey)机构发报专帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-09-27 16:15
1825号热带气旋“康妮”机构发报指引
9月27日:
JTWC  TCFA

9月28日:
JMA   06   09   12   15   18   21
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月29日:
JMA   00   03   06(命名)   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(18:00)
KMA  06   12   18
CWB  06   12   18
HKO  18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

9月30日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

10月1日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

10月2日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21   ”康妮“猛烈な报文存档
CMA  00   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

10月3日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风蓝色预警(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

10月4日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风蓝色预警(06:00)   台风蓝色预警(10:04)   台风蓝色预警(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

10月5日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
         台风蓝色预警(06:00)   台风蓝色预警(10:00)   台风蓝色预警(17:36)
KMA  00   06   09   12   15   18   21
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   12
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

10月6日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18(变性温带气旋)
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风蓝色预警(06:00)   解除台风蓝色预警(10:21)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   03   06   09   12   18
CWB  00   06   12
HKO  00
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18(Final Warning)

10月7日:
CMA  00(停编)
         台风公报(06:00)
KMA  00

图片:wp9418.gif


图片:94W_270830sair.jpg


WTPN21 PGTW 270830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.8N 155.5E TO 10.2N 147.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.3N 154.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N
157.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 155.6E, APPROXIMATELY 258 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION NOW BROADLY POSITIONED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
262256Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SIMILAR PICTURE,
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION SITTING OVER THE CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING IN THE SOUTHER QUADRANT. A 261057Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A VERY
DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A PATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WINDS TO THE SOUTH WEST OF CURRENT POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 15 TO
30 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE MODELS GREATLY DISAGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY
AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280830Z.//
NNNN
[红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-04 10:12编辑了帖子]
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  • 9914dan
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    94W:TCFA
    2018-09-27 17:56
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    威望 2
    94W:TCFA
    2018-09-27 17:56
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1楼#
发布于:2018-09-28 12:27
JTWC/30W/#01/09-28 00Z
WTPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 7.2N 151.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 151.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 9.3N 148.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 11.0N 145.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 12.5N 142.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 13.8N 140.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 16.3N 137.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 18.0N 134.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 20.1N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 150.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp3018.gif

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  • 327
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    01-09 20:00
最近正在批量修改论坛内帖子中的失效链接(把typhoon.gov.cn改为typhoon.org.cn),如果各位的帖子因我的修改而出现问题,请与我联系。
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2楼#
发布于:2018-09-28 12:29
JTWC/30W/#01/09-28 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
UNDER A BROAD PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION THAT ALSO FEATURES AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TAIL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 272220Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T1.5 (25 KTS), AND IS BELOW THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MOSTLY EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH
A SMALL POINT SOURCE DEVELOPING OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. 30W IS
LOCATED ON THE BORDER OF MODERATE TO STRONG (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH HAS BEEN DELAYING CONSOLIDATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD
30W IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVING WEST TO
EAST TOWARDS JAPAN IS CAUSING THE STR TO RE-ORIENT, ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWEST MOTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48, ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLE ARE NORTHERN
OUTLIERS, TRACKING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO GUAM. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF TRACK. STILL,
GIVEN THE TIGHT MODEL GROUPING, WITH A SPREAD OF 115 NM AT TAU 48,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK UNTIL
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) DIVERGE TO THE
NORTH, INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. TD 30W IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SHEAR, WHICH IS HINDERING ITS RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE ALOFT MAY ENHANCE
OUTFLOW AND SUPPORT DEEPENING CONVECTION AND A FASTER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. TD 30W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSITY THROUGH
TAU 72, REACHING 90 KTS BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF MAINTAINING
THE SYSTEM AS MORE BROAD AND WEAK UNTIL AFTER TAU 48, WHEN THEY
DEPICT THE SYSTEM CONTRACTING AND INTENSIFYING. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INITIALLY HEDGED LOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INTENSIFY, REACHING 115 KTS BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72,
MODELS DIVERGE FURTHER INTO A TRIFURCATION SCENARIO. ECMWF AND THE
EC ENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS AND PREDICT A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS LUZON. NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) ARE
THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT RECURVE AND NORTHWARD
TRACK. OTHER MODELS, INCLUDING UKMET, HWRF, AND GALWEM, CONTINUE TO
MOVE 30W TO THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SEVERAL SCENARIOS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IN LATER
TAUS.//
NNNN

图片:30W_280000sair.jpg

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3楼#
发布于:2018-09-28 15:25
JMA/TD-b/09-28 06Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年09月28日16時25分 発表
 

图片:b-00.png


<28日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 8度25分(8.4度)
 東経 149度55分(149.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
 
<29日03時の予報>
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 10度25分(10.4度)
 東経 147度50分(147.8度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
 
<29日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 12度05分(12.1度)
 東経 145度30分(145.5度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
[MTWP于2018-09-28 15:40编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-09-28 17:00
JTWC/30W/#02/09-28 06Z
WTPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 002    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 8.5N 149.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 149.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 10.4N 146.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 12.0N 144.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 13.3N 141.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 14.7N 139.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 17.0N 136.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 19.5N 133.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 22.2N 130.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 148.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 413 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z
AND 290900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:280600-wp3018.gif

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发布于:2018-09-28 17:15
JTWC/30W/#02/09-28 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED MAINLY TO THE WEST
OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL
280519Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE IMPROVING BANDING
STRUCTURE OF TD 30W. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1.5 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 30W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH
MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 30 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 30W
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD IT WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 72, TD 30W
WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 170 NM AT TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AND ALLOW TD 30W TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. BY TAU 120, TD 30W WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE STR AXIS AND
TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH A SPREAD OF NEARLY 800 NM BY TAU 120. ECMWF IS THE WESTERN
OUTLIER WITH CTCX THE EASTERN OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR, BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

图片:30W_280600sair.jpg

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发布于:2018-09-28 18:00
JMA/TD-b/09-28 09Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年09月28日19時00分 発表

<28日18時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 8度55分(8.9度)
東経 149度05分(149.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<29日06時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 11度20分(11.3度)
東経 147度05分(147.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<29日18時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 12度30分(12.5度)
東経 143度55分(143.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 30km/h(17kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

图片:280900-zoom5l-b-00.png

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发布于:2018-09-28 20:56
JMA/TD-b/09-28 12Z
熱帯低気圧
平成30年09月28日22時00分 発表
 

图片:b-00.png


<28日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 9度20分(9.3度)
 東経 148度10分(148.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
 
<29日09時の予報>
強さ -
 熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 11度10分(11.2度)
 東経 145度55分(145.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)
 
<29日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 12度35分(12.6度)
 東経 142度55分(142.9度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
[MTWP于2018-09-29 00:15编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-09-28 22:35
JTWC/30W/#03/09-28 12Z
WTPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 9.5N 148.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 148.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 11.4N 145.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 12.9N 142.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 14.1N 140.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 15.4N 138.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 17.7N 135.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 20.1N 132.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 22.9N 130.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 147.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 311 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z
AND 291500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

图片:wp302018.20180928142616.gif

[mawong于2018-09-29 00:14编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-09-29 00:05
JTWC/30W/#03/09-28 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED MAINLY TO THE WEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 281118Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 30W IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS). UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE,
BETWEEN 30 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 30W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD IT WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 72, TD 30W
WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 95 NM AT TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48 MODEL GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DIVERGE. DUE TO THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AND ALLOW TD 30W TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. BY TAU 120, TD 30W WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE STR AXIS AND
TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF NEARLY 624 NM BY TAU 120. ECMWF IS THE
WESTERN OUTLIER WITH CTCX THE EASTERN OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

图片:30W_281200sair.jpg

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できない私ですが、くり返さない。
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