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[EP]东太平洋四级飓风“塞尔希奥”(21E.Sergio) - 东太平洋今年第八个C4,破单年内最多C4纪录,掉头登陆下加利福尼亚半岛 - NHC:120KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-09-28 02:52
96E INVEST 180927 1800 10.8N 96.9W EPAC 25 1008

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

图片:two_pac_5d1.png


图片:recon_NOAA2-WBWXE-GENESIS.png

图片:recon_NOAA2-WBWXE-GENESIS_timeseries.png



1. Satellite data and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the circulation associated with an area of low
pressure a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has
become a little better defined since yesterday
.  Environmental
conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a
tropical cyclone is likely to form over the weekend or early next
week while it moves west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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红豆棒冰冰
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1楼#
发布于:2018-09-28 10:12
NHC:70%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rosa, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to gradually become better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over the weekend while it
moves west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png



WTPN22 PHNC 280030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 96.6W TO 12.9N 103.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 96.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 96.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272232Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVELS ARE OVERALL
FAVORABLE, WITH LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE
TO A POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28-29 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT 96E WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT BUILDS IN INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290030Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9618.gif


图片:96E_280030sair.jpg

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2楼#
发布于:2018-09-29 03:32
NHC:80%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rosa, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today near
an area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Latto

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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3楼#
发布于:2018-09-29 07:42
NHC:100%/100%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rosa, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data indicate that an area
of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, is producing tropical-storm-force winds.  However, the data
also show that the system does not have a well-defined center.
Environmental conditions are very conducive for further development,
and the low is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday while
it moves west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

For additional information on the low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:two_pac_5d0.png


图片:two_pac_5d1.png

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4楼#
发布于:2018-09-29 11:43
第2报TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 290030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290021Z SEP 18//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 98.4W TO 12.9N 105.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 99.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 96.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 99.0W, APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 282218Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VWS
AND ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO LIGHT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE REGION. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHILE TRACKING TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 290030).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300030Z.//
NNNN

图片:ep9618.gif


图片:96E_290030sair.jpg



WTPN22 PHNC 290030 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED CORRECTED //
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290021ZSEP18//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 290030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 98.0W TO 12.9N 103.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 99.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 96.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 99.0W, APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 282218Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VWS
AND ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO LIGHT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE REGION. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHILE TRACKING TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 290030).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300030Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP NUMBER. CORRECTED
REFERENCE MANOP HEADER.//
NNNN

图片:ep9618.gif

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-09-29 14:42编辑了帖子]
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5楼#
发布于:2018-09-30 00:02
在出人意料的时间升格并直接命名,NHC首报上望95KT不封顶
另外NHC表示将于16z发出特报,截图纪念。
Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Sergio has formed well south of Mexico. A special advisory will be issued by 1600 UTC.

图片:IMG_20180930_000202.jpg



354
WTPZ41 KNHC 291535
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low
pressure area south-southwest of Acapulco has continued to become
better organized, with the low-level center embedded under the
convective overcast and near a developing complex of bands in the
southeastern semicircle.  Based on this and continuity from earlier
scatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Storm Sergio with 35 kt winds.

Sergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear
and high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the
next 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening. Near
the end of the forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing
northeasterly shear which could limit intensification. The intensity
forecast, which is near the intensity consensus, calls for steady
strengthening through 96 h, with Sergio becoming a hurricane by 48
h.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/11.  Sergio should
be steered generally westward for the next three days or so by the
subtropical ridge over Mexico.  After that time, the cyclone should
approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to
upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to a turn
toward the northwest.  The track guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario, and the forecast track lies near the HCCA
corrected consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1530Z 12.4N 102.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

图片:153000_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png


图片:85083621.gif


图片:90677611.gif

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6楼#
发布于:2018-09-30 11:21
NHC上望MH
273
WTPZ41 KNHC 300240
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Satellite images indicate that Sergio has become better organized
during the past several hours with more concentrated convection near
the center.  Intensity estimates are slightly higher than the past
advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, closest to the
CIMSS SATCON.  The storm should be in a low-shear, warm-water, and
high-moisture environment for the next 2 or 3 days.  While there
are no signs of an inner core forming yet, that usually doesn't
stop steady intensification, and rapid strengthening is a distinct
possibility in a day or two.  Thus the intensity forecast is raised
from the previous one and is close to the consensus.   Although
there are a number of reliable models showing a higher peak
intensity, an uncertain environment at long range leads me to a more
conservative forecast.  It would not be surprising at all if my
prediction ended up being too low, given the intense nature of this
eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The initial motion is close to the prevous one, 275/9.  Sergio
should be steered generally westward for the next two or three days
by the subtropical ridge over Mexico.  After that time, the cyclone
is forecast to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large
mid- to upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to
a turn toward the northwest.  Similar to the previous advisory, the
track guidance has shifted slightly south and west, so the official
forecast is nudged in that direction at most time periods.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT  30/0300Z 12.3N 103.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 12.4N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 12.3N 106.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 12.0N 109.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 11.8N 111.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  03/0000Z 12.9N 114.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 15.0N 117.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

120H  05/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

图片:goes16_ir-dvorak_21E_201809300305.jpg

图片:goes16_ir-dvorak_21E.gif

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红豆棒冰冰
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7楼#
发布于:2018-09-30 17:07
130
WTPZ41 KNHC 300854
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Microwave and infrared satellite images, along with scatterometer
wind data, indicate that Sergio has continued to become better
organized, with strong convection now more concentrated near the
center. However, scatterometer data showed that the inner-core wind
field is still rather loose and not particularly well-defined quite
yet. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and
SAB, which is supported by a 0536 UTC ASCAT pass that contained a
few 45-kt vectors east of the center.

The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. For the next 48
hours or so, Sergio should move generally westward along the
southern periphery of a large, deep-layer subtropical ridge that
extends from Mexico westward across the eastern and central Pacific.
By 72 hours, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to drop
southward and southeastward over the southwestern U.S. and the
northeastern Pacific, producing a break in the ridge which will
allow Sergio to move toward the northwest at a slower forward
speed through 120 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
but slightly south of the previous advisory track, and lies close
to an average of the consensus models TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE.

Sergio is forecast to remain in a low-shear, warm-water, and
high-moisture environment for the next 36 hours or so, during which
time rapid intensification is expected. In the 48- to 72-hour
period, the vertical shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF global
models to increase from the northeast at around 25 kt, which should
act to cap the strengthening process, and possibly even induce some
weakening. By 96 and 120 hours, the shear is expected to decrease
to 5 kt or less, which would favor re-strengthening. However, due
to the uncertainty in how much Sergio's inner-core wind field will
be disrupted by the aforementioned strong shear, the intensity
forecast is simply leveled off at 95 kt at 72 hours and beyond.
The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous
advisory and closely follows the IVCN consensus model, which is
lower than the more robust HCCA and FSSE models, which bring Sergio
to near category 4 strength in 36-48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 12.0N 104.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 12.0N 105.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 11.9N 108.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 11.6N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 11.7N 112.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 13.0N 115.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 15.2N 118.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 17.1N 120.8W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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8楼#
发布于:2018-10-01 00:21
200
WTPZ41 KNHC 301457
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Recent microwave data indicate that the inner core of Sergio
continues to become better defined, with an eye-like feature
evident. However, this eye feature is not yet apparent in
geostationary satellite imagery. Deep convection with cloud top
temperatures of -70 C are concentrated around the storm's center as
well as along a prominent banding feature on the south side. The
average of available satellite intensity estimates support an
intensity of 50 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this
advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 270/11 kt. There continues to be no
significant changes in the forecast track philosophy from the
previous few forecasts. For the next couple of days, Sergio
should move generally westward or just south of due west
around the southern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical
ridge that extends from Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific.
By 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough will move southeastward
along and offshore the western U.S., which will erode the ridge from
the west. This will allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward
then northwestward from 48- to 96-hours with a gradual decrease in
forward speed. Thereafter, the trough should shift eastward and low-
to mid-level ridging should build to the northwest of the cyclone.
This pattern change should induce a more westward turn toward
the end of the forecast period.

Sergio will remain in an environment of low-shear, high-moisture,
and over warm waters for the next 24 hours or so, which should
result in rapid intensification. This is in agreement with rapid
intensification indices from the SHIPS model of 40 to 45 percent
over the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, northeasterly shear is expected
to develop over the storm environment and increase to 25 kt by 48
hours. This should at least limit the rate of intensification if not
weaken the cyclone slightly from 48- to 72-hours. After that time,
global models indicate that the shear will lessen to under 10 kt by
96 hours, but by that time the system will be moving over waters of
26-27 C very near a gradient of cooler SSTs just to the north. Based
on this, the intensity remains steady from 72- to 96-hours and then
shows slow weakening by the end of the period. The intensity
forecast is a little higher that the previous advisory, and is close
to the dynamical model consensus. Based on this intensity forecast,
Sergio is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 12.1N 105.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 12.1N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 11.8N 109.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 11.7N 111.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 12.0N 113.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 13.6N 116.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 16.0N 119.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

图片:145921_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png


图片:21E_intensity_12z.png



图片:QQ20181001-0.jpg



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[9914dan于2018-10-01 01:25编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2018-10-01 23:43
903
WTPZ41 KNHC 010237
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Overall, Sergio has changed little in organization over the past
several hours.  The convective pattern is comprised of a ragged
band wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center,
with the strongest convection to the north of the center.  Recent
microwave data show that the mid-level circulation center seen
earlier has lost some definition.  However, the low-level
circulation center seems to be becoming better defined.  The
initial intensity remains 55 kt based on unchanged satellite
intensity estimates.

The initial motion remains 260/11.  For the next 36 h or so, Sergio
should move westward or just south of due westward around the
southern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical ridge extending
from Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific.  After that time, a
mid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and offshore
of the western U.S. will erode the western part of the ridge. This
development will allow Sergio turn west-northwestward to
northwestward with a gradual decrease in forward speed.  The new
forecast track is near the various consensus models and is an
update of the previous track.

Conditions appear favorable for Sergio to rapidly intensify in the
next 36 h if the cyclone can become well enough organized to take
advantage of the environment.  This part of the intensity forecast
presumes this will happen and is unchanged from the previous
forecast of quick strengthening.  From 36-48 h, a burst of
northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio, which should at
least slow intensification.  Based on this and the shear letting up
at 72 h, the intensity forecast is tweaked to show the peak
intensity after the shear decreases.  After 72 h, decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a gradual
weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 11.6N 107.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 11.4N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 11.3N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 11.6N 113.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 12.4N 115.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 14.5N 118.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 16.5N 120.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

图片:023843_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png



428
WTPZ41 KNHC 010854
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018

Sergio's convective pattern in infrared satellite imagery has waxed
and waned since the previous advisory. A previously large, solid
curved band has become broken during the past couple of hours, but
the comma head or CDO of the cloud band has increased in size while
cloud tops have cooled to near -80C. Passive microwave imagery
indicates that within the comma head feature an 18-20-nmi-wide
closed eye has developed in the low-levels, while the mid- and
upper-level eye remains open and ragged. Subjective intensity
estimates remain T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. However, based on the
well-defined, low-level eye, the intensity has been nudged upward to
60 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 270/12 kt, based primarily on microwave
satellite fix positions. Sergio is forecast to move generally
westward for the next 36 hours or so, under the influence of a
strong, deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. By 48
hours, a mid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and
offshore of the western U.S. is expected to gradually erode the
western part of the ridge, allowing Sergio turn west-northwestward
on day 2 and move northwestward on days 3-5.  The new NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near a
blend of the consensus models TCVA, TVCE, and HCCA.

Both the statistical and dynamical intensity models have been too
bullish on Sergio strengthening during the past 36 hours. Although
the environment is quite moist with near 80 percent mid-level
humidity values, a pronounced dry intrusion eroding the inner-core
convection remains. By the time the dry air mixes out, modest
northerly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder development in
the 24-48 hour period. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is
forecast to decrease below 10 kt, but Sergio will be moving over
cooler waters at that time. Given the mixed environmental signals,
the official intensity is on the conservative side and remains well
below the stronger HCCA and FSSE models, and closer to the simple
consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 11.5N 108.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 11.4N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 12.8N 116.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 14.9N 118.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 16.8N 121.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 17.9N 123.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

图片:085605_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png



009
WTPZ41 KNHC 011433
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018

Sergio is almost a hurricane.  Satellite images indicate that the
central convection has been increasing in intensity during the past
several hours, but there are still no indications of an eye in
that data.  Microwave imagery does show an eye feature, however.
The outer bands are not particularly well organized, and there are
some dry slots beyond the inner core.  The initial intensity is held
at 60 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, the models have been too
bullish on Sergio strengthening during the past couple of days.
This could be due to the aforementioned dry slots that were not well
predicted by both the statistical and dynamical guidance.  Looking
ahead to the next several days, the environmental conditions are
mixed.  The wind shear and SSTs appear conducive for strengthening
during the next couple of days, so steady intensification is
predicted during that time period.  However, as seen during the past
day or two, dry air could slow the intensification rate.  Beyond a
couple of days, the models show a brief increase in shear and a
steady decrease in mid-level moisture and SSTs.  These conditions
will likely end the opportunity for strengthening and cause a slow
weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast is about the same as
the previous one, and it lies between the usually reliable HCCA and
IVCN consensus models.

Sergio is moving westward at 10 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to
its north and northeast.  A continued westward motion is expected
for another day followed by a turn to the west-northwest and then
the northwest as the western side of the ridge weakens due to a
large-scale trough near the southwestern United States.  By the end
of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of
Sergio, which should cause a turn back to the left.  The models are
in very good agreement overall, and little change has been made to
the previous forecast track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 11.5N 109.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 18.0N 124.3W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:143640_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png


图片:21E.gif

图片:21E .gif

[9914dan于2018-10-02 02:16编辑了帖子]
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