933954
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2018-2019年度斐济责任区编号系统讨论帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2018-10-01 14:32
说明: 1、本帖专门用于收集和讨论斐济气象部门(FMS)对其责任区内编号的扰动,当NRL编号或者FMS发“扰动报告”(Disturbance Advisory)时可新开主题帖。
2、本帖每年度一帖,开帖时间一般为10月初,如果FMS编扰动早于此时间则以编号时间为开帖时间(FMS官方认定的风季时间为11月1日至次年4月30日)。任何会员均可开帖,首楼附上本说明即可,注意:本帖开帖不加分
3、帖子时效为当年开帖~次年5月31日,到期后如无特殊情况则移入档案版。
4、FMS新编扰动后,在本帖下发帖说明,取最早的会员给予威望3、金钱3的奖励。建议会员发帖后附上合适的云图并进行适当的说明或标注,方便其他会员更直观地浏览
5、一些有用的网址及信息:
FMS官网:http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php
FMS发编号扰动的页面:
一(官网):http://www.met.gov.fj/current_warnings_b.php,此页面中最右边一栏最下面的Tropical Disturbance Summary就能看到当前编号的扰动。
二(报文存档):https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/NFFN/Alphanumeric/Warning/Warnings_and_weather_summary/
三:https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ww/wwps21.nffn..txt
FMS热带云团3天展望:http://www.met.gov.fj/tc_outlook.pdf
一个南半球云图及分析图汇集的网址,可用来发编号时的云图(自己定位):
http://www.cyclonextreme.com/cyclonecaledonie.htm
NOAA的南半球云图:http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/
FMS责任区范围:

图片:fj.png



自动更新云图:
澳大利亚附近



南太平洋(偶尔有错误陆地边界乱入)

[933954于2019-02-16 16:47编辑了帖子]
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327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2019-01-01 08:20
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE 999HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 9.8S 171.1
AT 312100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPEHRAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS
PERSISTENT WITH GOOD ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IN A LOW-MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARDS AND THEN IN A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG

[327于2019-01-01 08:30编辑了帖子]
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933954
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2楼#
发布于:2019-02-04 08:09
WWPS21 NFFN 032100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 032258 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.6S 169.2W AT
032100UTC. TD06F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8
VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTRE [LLCC]
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. TD06F LIES UNDER AN ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:SHGOESCO.JPG

[933954于2019-02-04 15:05编辑了帖子]
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renzhetegong
强热带风暴
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3楼#
发布于:2019-02-04 19:07
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 040915 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 168.1W AT
040600UTC. TD06F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8
EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE
[LLCC] IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. TD06F LIES UNDER AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG

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2018.26W
热带低压
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4楼#
发布于:2019-02-05 11:00
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 042230 UTC.


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.9 168.9WAT
042100UTC. TD06F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8
VIS/EIR IMMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.


CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE
[LLCC] IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. TD06F LIES UNDER AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.


MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.


THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
[2018.26W于2019-02-05 18:56编辑了帖子]
1822 26W 山竹 Mangkhut 65 m/s 9月7日
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炎煌深沉
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5楼#
发布于:2019-02-10 09:15
FMS编08F
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 092333 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEIL, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.4S 174.7W AT 092100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR
AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACES TO THE EAST. CYLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW.

**********************************************************************************

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD08F CENTRE WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.5S 179.7W AT
092100UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF SUPPOSED LLCC IN
LAST 06 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERSTE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO THE 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

**********************************************************************************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED IN THE AREA.

图片:SHGMSCOL.JPG

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红豆棒冰冰
总版主-南亚高压
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6楼#
发布于:2019-02-10 09:37
SSD已分析出T1.0
炎煌深沉锛歍ropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 092333 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
TXPS21 KNES 100035
TCSWSP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
B. 09/2330Z
C. 13.6S
D. 179.4W
E. FIVE/GOES-W
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
 NIL
...TURK
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