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[AL]佛得角以西热带风暴“内迪恩”(15L.Nadine) - 缔造北大西洋十月少见的三旋共舞

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更多 发布于:2018-10-08 19:35
93L INVEST 181008 1200 9.0N 25.9W ATL 25 1011

图片:20181008.1200.msg4.x.ir1km_bw.93LINVEST.25kts-1011mb-90N-259W.100pc.jpg


图片:two_atl_2d2.png

图片:two_atl_5d2.png



2. An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located
several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated since last night,
and a tropical depression could form during next few days while it
moves west-northwestward. By late this week, however, upper-level
winds are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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1楼#
发布于:2018-10-09 07:51
NHC:70%/80%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Michael, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Satellite images indicate that a low pressure area located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better
defined.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within a day or two while the system moves generally west-
northwestward.  By late this week, strong upper-level winds are
expected to limit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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发布于:2018-10-09 16:41
NHC:80%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Michael, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about 500 miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  However, satellite wind data
indicate that the circulation of the system is still elongated.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later
today or on Wednesday while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward.  By late this week, strong upper-level winds are
expected to limit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

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发布于:2018-10-09 17:49
TCFA
WTNT21 KNGU 090300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6N 28.5W TO 11.3N 33.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 28.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED BY THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
CONDUCTIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC.
3.THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 100300Z.//

图片:al932018.gif

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4楼#
发布于:2018-10-09 18:16
已升格15L
AL, 15, 2018100906,   , BEST,   0,  99N,  294W,  25, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  60,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 038, TRANSITIONED, alB32018 to al152018,

图片:20181009.1000.msg-4.vis.15L.FIFTEEN.25kts.1008mb.9.9N.29.4W.100pc.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-10-09 19:41编辑了帖子]
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5楼#
发布于:2018-10-09 21:04
命名Nadine
AL, 15, 2018100912,   , BEST,   0, 103N,  297W,  35, 1007, TS,  34, NEQ,   30,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     NADINE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 038, TRANSITIONED, alC32018 to al152018,

图片:20181009.1200.msg-4.vis.15L.NADINE.35kts.1007mb.10.3N.29.7W.100pc.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-10-09 21:21编辑了帖子]
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6楼#
发布于:2018-10-09 23:42
000
WTNT45 KNHC 090952
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Geostationary satellite and recent microwave data indicate that the
low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean has developed
sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of
circulation to be considered a tropical depression, the fifteenth
one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications
from both TAFB and SAB.  The depression is expected to strengthen a
little during the next 36 to 48 hours while it remains in favorable
oceanic and atmospheric conditions.  Thereafter, a significant
increase in west-southwesterly shear, drier air, and slightly cooler
SSTs should cause weakening.  The global models all show the
depression opening up into a trough by day 5, and the official
forecast predicts dissipation accordingly.

The initial motion is uncertain since the system just formed a
well-defined center, but my best guess is 285/10 kt.  The
depression is expected to turn northwestward tonight and continue in
that general direction on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves
toward a broad trough over the central Atlantic, the same one that
Leslie is embedded in.  After that time, when the system weakens and
becomes shallow, a turn back to the left is forecast.  The models
are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1000Z 10.3N  29.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 10.6N  30.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 11.3N  32.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 12.4N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 13.6N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 16.1N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 17.5N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:TIM图片20181010014329.jpg


图片:095407_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png



000
WTNT45 KNHC 091435
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

The cloud pattern of the cyclone features a curved band that wraps
around the eastern and southern parts of the circulation. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T2.5/35 kt, and that is used
for the initial intensity, making the system a tropical storm. The
environment appears conducive for some additional strengthening
during the next 24 hours or so, with SSTs above 28C and generally
light to moderate westerly shear. After that time, the shear
increases to 25-30 kt and SSTs along the forecast track fall below
27C by 72 hours. These factors should result in weakening, and all
of the global models show the cyclone dissipating in 4 to 5 days.
The NHC forecast follows these trends and is close to the various
consensus aids through the forecast period.

Based on geostationary imagery and a 0815Z SSMIS pass, the initial
motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/08, with Nadine
currently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. The ridge will
weaken as a mid/upper-level trough that Leslie is embedded in digs
southward along 40W longitude. This pattern will cause Nadine to
turn more northwestward by 24 hours. By 96 hours, a weakening Nadine
should bend back to the west as a shallow system. The new NHC track
forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one due to the new
initial position, and lies near HCCA through 48 hours and closer to
the TVCA multi-model consensus after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 10.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 11.1N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 11.9N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 13.0N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 14.3N  34.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 16.7N  36.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 18.0N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

图片:143651_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png


图片:2018AL15_4KMIRIMG_201810091500.gif



图片:TIM图片20181010014452.jpg

[9914dan于2018-10-10 01:52编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于:2018-10-10 07:29
000
WTNT45 KNHC 092031
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Nadine is a sheared tropical cyclone this afternoon with the center
partially exposed on the southwestern side of an increasing area of
convection. Dvorak estimates are unchanged since earlier, so the
initial wind speed remains 35 kt. The shear is forecast to remain
low enough to support strengthening during the next day or so, along
with sufficiently warm waters.  However, Nadine should encounter a
large upper trough after that time, which should cause weakening to
begin on Thursday. Later on, cooler SSTs and strong shear are
expected to cause Nadine to degenerate into a trough of low pressure
by the weekend. Model guidance is in fair agreement on this
scenario, and the new NHC prediction is close to the previous one
and the model consensus.

Satellite imagery today shows that Nadine has turned rightward and
is moving 300/7.  A northwestward track should begin overnight and
continue for the next few days due to steering from a mid-level
ridge near the Cabo Verde Islands.  A westward turn is expected
beyond day 3 as Nadine becomes a shallow system and dissipates.  The
track forecast isn't super confident because it is somewhat
dependent on the intensity. For example, a stronger cyclone like the
GFS shows would have the potential to move more toward the north-
northwest as it attempts to remain a vertically coherent system.
Since Nadine isn't expected to get very strong, the official
forecast will stay near or just south of the model consensus, which
results in no significant change to the previous track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 10.9N  30.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 11.6N  31.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 12.6N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 13.7N  33.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 15.0N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 17.0N  37.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

图片:203223_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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发布于:2018-10-10 12:23
000
WTNT45 KNHC 100238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Deep convection has been increasing in the eastern semicircle of
Nadine, with the center close to the western edge of large
convective band.  Overall, the satellite presentation has improved
in the past several hours, although the outflow is limited west of
the center.  While subjective estimates are unchanged from the last
advisory, microwave-based estimates suggest Nadine is somewhat
stronger, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt.  Light or
moderate shear is anticipated during the next day or so, along
with sufficiently warm waters, which should promote strengthening.
However, Nadine should encounter a large upper trough after that
time, which will likely cause weakening to begin on Thursday. Later
on, cooler SSTs and strong shear are expected to cause Nadine to
degenerate into a trough of low pressure by the weekend.  The most
significant change is that the model guidance is notably higher
than the last cycle, with a few models even making Nadine a
hurricane eventually.  That seems unlikely given the strength of
the forecast shear, but the forecast is nudged higher than the
previous one and the model consensus.

Nadine continues to turn rightward and is now moving northwestward
at about 7 kt.  This general course is forecast for the next couple
of days due to steering from a mid-level ridge near the Cabo Verde
Islands.  After that time, a west-northwestward or westward turn is
expected as Nadine becomes a shallow system and dissipates.  The
model spread is still fairly wide, with the stronger guidance
generally on the eastern side of the model envelope, and the weaker
guidance on the western side.  There is definitely a slight trend
to the northeast with the latest model guidance, and since we are
expecting a stronger system, the official forecast is adjusted in
that direction, but not nearly as far to the right as most of the
GFS-based guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 11.6N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 12.3N  31.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 13.4N  32.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 14.8N  33.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 16.0N  35.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 17.5N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

图片:024029_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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发布于:2018-10-10 17:17
000
WTNT45 KNHC 100835
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Nadine continues to gradually strengthen.  Microwave images indicate
that the storm is beginning to develop an inner core with a
concentrated area of deep convection noted in infrared satellite
imagery.  The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt, in agreement
with 3.0/45 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.  Nadine has
about another day to strengthen while it remains in favorable
atmospheric conditions of low wind shear and high moisture, and over
warm waters.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and IVCN
guidance and brings Nadine to 55 kt during that time period.
Thereafter, the global models all show a sharp increase in
southwesterly shear and that should end the opportunity for
strengthening and cause weakening.  The combination of strong shear,
drier air, and slightly cooler SSTs should cause the cyclone to open
into a trough in 3 to 4 days, or perhaps even sooner.

The compact storm is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt, and the
center is a little to the right of the previous forecast track.  A
continued northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the
next couple of days while Nadine moves toward a trough over the
east-central Atlantic, the same trough that Leslie is embedded in.
After that time, the weak and shallow system should turn to the left
until dissipation.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a
little to the right of the previous one due to the more northward
initial motion and position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 12.1N  31.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 12.8N  31.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 13.9N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 15.1N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 16.0N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 17.3N  38.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:083656_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png


图片:BuJCNQe.jpg


图片:2018AL15_1KMVSIMG_201810101055.gif



图片:2018AL15_4KMSRBDC_201810100900.jpg


图片:2018AL15_4KMIRIMG_201810100900.gif

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